【#閱讀筆記ReadingNotes】經濟學家埃茲拉蒂在《福布斯》撰文指,由於北京非常依賴香港金融中心,在「中國需要香港,多於香港需要中國」的情況下,無法出動解放軍鎮壓運動,正陷入無從入手的困境。其實,今次流水革命,幾乎衝散了北京賴以控制香港的工具,除了「解放軍會鎮壓」、「香港依賴中國」等意識形態牌全部破產外,經營數十年的官商代理人網絡亦幾近崩潰,更引發自由世界介入。多年來,北京以為可以一手盡用香港為其服務、一手扼殺香港自治,終於踢到了鐵板。
Economist Milton Ezrati wrote in Forbes that because China relies heavily on Hong Kong’s financial centre and “Hong Kong is more important to China than China is to Hong Kong”, Beijing cannot resort to troops and finds it difficult to resolve the movement. Indeed, the Water Revolution has undermined most of the tools that Beijing has adopted for controlling Hong Kong, including the deterrence of the PLA, the discourse of “Hong Kong’s dependency on China”, and the local collaborator network. Most importantly, it triggers the Free World countries to step in. For many years, Beijing has tried to make best use of Hong Kong to serve its agenda on one hand, while chipping away at Hong Kong’s autonomy on the other hand, it finally hits the wall.
#流水革命 #香港自治 #一國兩制
#WaterRevolution #HKAutonomy #HongKongAutonomy #OCTS
------------------------------
Follow me in social media
------------------------------
1. Facebook: facebook.com/brianfonghk
2. Instagram: instagram.com/brianfonghk
3. Twitter: twitter.com/brianfonghk
4. Medium: medium.com/@brianfonghk
5. Telegram: t.me/brianfonghk
同時也有10000部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過62萬的網紅Bryan Wee,也在其Youtube影片中提到,...
「octs」的推薦目錄:
octs 在 方志恒 Brian Fong Facebook 八卦
【#懶人包ForDummies】**Please scroll down for English version**
不厭其煩,要講到所有人都明。中港權貴總是吹噓「香港依靠中國才能生存」,但事實上卻是「中國經濟依靠香港金融才能生存」。多年來,北京以為可以一手盡用香港為其服務、一手扼殺香港自治,現在終於踢到了鐵板。攬炒之道,就是北京要麼放手讓香港自治,在一國兩制下中港互利;要麼承受失去香港金融中心,中國經濟資金鏈斷裂之風險。
• 香港是中國最主要的境外投資來源地
(2018年香港對中國的直接投資金額為961億美元,佔中國 FDI 總數74.7%)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外上巿集資地
(現時合共有1,146 間國企、紅籌、民企在香港主板巿場上巿;2018年中國企業在香港的IPO金額高達35萬億美元,佔中國企業境外集資總額79.6%)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外銀行貸款來源地
(2018 年香港各銀行對中國大陸銀行和非銀行客戶的淨債權總額高達 910億元美元)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外債券融資平台
(2018年中國企業在香港發行的美元債券總額高達723 億美元,佔中資企業境外發債總額的64.2%)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外人民幣交易中心
(2018 年香港佔全球人民幣境外交易量的79%)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外私人財富安全港
(2018年香港各金融機構管理的資產總額達3.1萬億美元,估計大部分為中國權貴的資產)
I will repeat this post until everybody understands it. Despite of the usual claims that “Hong Kong is depending on China to survive” as advanced by many Chinese and Hong Kong elites, in reality “China heavily depends on Hong Kong’s international financial centre status to survive”. For many years, Beijing has tried to make best use of Hong Kong to serve its agenda on one hand, while chipping away at Hong Kong’s autonomy on the other hand, now it finally hits the wall. “Burn with us” means Beijing can either give Hong Kong's autonomy, so that OCTS is good for both China and Hong Kong; or Beijing can lose Hong Kong as an international financial centre, risking itself to face the breakdown of its capital chain.
• Hong Kong is China’s largest source of inward direct investment
(the total amount of FDI contributed by Hong Kong in 2018 was USD 96.1 billion, constituting 74.7% of China’s total FDI in 2018)
• Hong Kong is China’s major offshore equity financing place
(a total of 1,146 H-shares, Red-chips and Mainland private enterprises have been listed in Hong Kong’s main board; the total amount of IPO raised by Chinese companies in Hong Kong reached USD35 trillion in 2018, constituting 79.6% of the total offshore IPO funds raised)
• Hong Kong is China’s most important source of offshore bank loans
(the total amount of Hong Kong banks’ net claims on bank and nonbank customers in China exceeded about USD91 billion in 2018)
• Hong Kong is China’s overriding offshore platform for corporate bond financing
(the total amount of US bonds issued by Chinese companies in Hong Kong exceeded USD72.3 billion in 2018, representing 64.2% of the total amount of US bonds issued by Chinese companies in all offshore financial centres)
• Hong Kong is China’s largest offshore RMB clearing centre
(79% of the world’s RMB payments were settled through Hong Kong in 2018)
• Hong Kong is China’s its offshore safe heaven for hiding private assets
(it is estimated that a total of USD3.1 trillion was managed by Hong Kong’s financial firms in 2018, the majority of which are seen as private assets of Chinese elites)
▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
香港在中美新冷戰:自由世界前哨?紅色中國前哨?/方志恒
https://bit.ly/2K5XGHn
Hong Kong and the US-China New Cold War/Brian C. H. Fong
https://bit.ly/2HMt7El
▋資料來源 Information sources
FDI: http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tongjiziliao/v/
Equity: https://www.hkex.com.hk/…/HKEx-…/2019/CCEO_MPE_201906_e.pdf…
Loans: https://www.hkma.gov.hk/…/…/annual-report/2018/18_Annex.pdf…
Bonds: https://www.hkex.com.hk/…/HKEx-…/2019/CCEO_MPE_201906_e.pdf…
RMB: https://www.swift.com/…/business-intel…/renminbi/rmb-tracker
Assets: https://www.sfc.hk/…/Asset%20and%20Wealth%20Management%20Ac…
#攬炒 #香港自治 #香港金融 #中國經濟 #一國兩制
#BurnWithUs #HKAutonomy #HKFinance #ChinaEconomy #OCTS
-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\
Follow me in social media
-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\
1. Facebook: facebook.com/brianfonghk
2. Instagram: instagram.com/brianfonghk
3. Twitter: twitter.com/brianfonghk
4. Medium: medium.com/@brianfonghk
5. Telegram: t.me/brianfonghk
octs 在 方志恒 Brian Fong Facebook 八卦
【#新聞點評】北京會動用解放軍嗎?香港不是89年的天安門,也不是西藏、新疆和南蒙古。解放軍一步出軍營,美國將立即取消《香港政策法》,香港國際金融中心地位隨即毀於一旦,北京將失去香港這個最重要的境外投資來源地(香港每年佔中國 FDI 總數六至七成)、上巿集資地(2018年中國企業在香港上市集資IPO金額高達35萬億美元)、銀行貸款來源地(2018 年香港各銀行對中國大陸銀行和非銀行客戶的淨債權總額高達 7,130 億元港幣)和債券融資平台(2018年中國企業在香港發行的美元債券總額高達723 億美元)—— 北京深知這些龐大的金融資本利益,至今仍無法透過上海這個中國(而不是國際)金融中心來提供。當北京早已受困於中美貿易戰、資金鏈日益脆弱之時,香港國際金融中心地位之一髮,足以牽動中共政權之全身穩定。換言之,解放軍出營之日,就是中港攬炒之時。
Will Beijing deploy PLA? Hong Kong is not Tiananmen in 1989, also not Tibet, Xinjiang and South Mongolia. Once PLA is deployed, the US will immediately abolish US-HK Policy Act, Hong Kong will lose its status as an international financial centre and then Beijing will lose its largest source of inward direct investment (usually constituting 60 to 70 percent of China’s FDI), the major listing place for Chinese companies (a total of 1,146 H-shares, Red-chips and Mainland private enterprises have been listed in Hong Kong’s main board in 2018), the important source of bank loans (in 2018 the total amount of Hong Kong banks’ net claims on bank and nonbank customers in China exceeded HKD713 billion) and the crucial platform for bond financing (in 2018 the total amount of SU bonds issued by Chinese companies in Hong Kong exceeded USD72.3 billion) —— Beijing knows it clearly that such enormous financial interests could NOT be provided by Shanghai which is just a Chinese (but not international) financial centre. When Chinese economy is on a downward spiral and increasingly facing a capital outflow crisis, the stability of the CCP regime hinges upon Hong Kong’s financial centre. In other words, once PLA is deployed, Hong Kong and China will be “burned” together.
▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
香港在中美新冷戰:自由世界前哨?紅色中國前哨?/方志恒
https://bit.ly/2K5XGHn
Hong Kong and the US-China New Cold War/Brian C. H. Fong
https://bit.ly/2HMt7El
#香港人 #反送中 #一國兩制 #香港自治 #新冷戰 #香港政策法 #香港人權民主法
#Hongkonger #NoExtradition #OCTS #HongKongAutonomy #NewColdWar #HKHRDA #StandWithHongKong
------------------------------
Follow me in social media
------------------------------
1. Facebook:www.facebook.com/brianfonghk
2. Instagram:www.instagram.com/brianfonghk
3. Twitter:www.twitter.com/brianfonghk
4. Medium: www.medium.com/@brianfonghk
5. LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/brianfonghk
octs 在 一國兩制青年論壇OCTS Youth Forum - YouTube 的八卦
... <看更多>
相關內容