u.s. stock market today的八卦，YOUTUBE和Yahoo名人娛樂都在討論

เศรษฐกิจย่ำแย่ แต่หุ้นขึ้น /โดย ลงทุนแมน
เมื่อไม่กี่วันที่ผ่านมา ธนาคารกลางประเทศอังกฤษคาดการณ์ว่า GDP ปีนี้
จะตกต่ำลงกว่า 14% ซึ่งถือเป็นการลงที่รุนแรงที่สุดในรอบ 300 ปี

300 ปี เป็นตัวเลขที่น่าสนใจเพราะยุคนั้นเป็นยุคของเซอร์ไอแซก นิวตัน
ผู้คิดค้นทฤษฎีแรงโน้มถ่วง หรือประเทศไทยก็คือ ยุคกรุงศรีอยุธยา..
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เรื่องนี้สะท้อนให้เห็นว่าวิกฤติในปีนี้ มีมูลค่าความเสียหายรุนแรง
ยิ่งกว่ายุคสงครามโลกทั้ง 2 ครั้ง และวิกฤติเศรษฐกิจทั้งหมดที่คนรุ่นเราพอจะนึกออก

นอกจากประเทศอังกฤษ อีกหลายประเทศก็กำลังเผชิญหน้า
กับเศรษฐกิจที่ย่ำแย่สุดในรอบประวัติศาสตร์ ไม่ต่างกัน

สัปดาห์ก่อน ประเทศสหรัฐอเมริการายงานตัวเลข
การว่างงานพุ่งทะลุ 20.5 ล้านคน ในเดือนเมษายน
รวมถึงมีรายงานว่าบริษัทอเมริกันยื่นล้มละลายไปแล้วกว่า 78 แห่ง

เรื่องนี้ส่งผลให้อัตราว่างงานชาวอเมริกันอยู่ที่ระดับ 14.7%
ซึ่งถือเป็นระดับที่ย่ำแย่ที่สุดในประวัติศาสตร์
นับตั้งแต่ Great Depression ในปี ค.ศ. 1929 หรือ 91 ปีก่อน

วิกฤติในครั้งนั้น ดัชนีตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐอเมริกา (Dow Jones)
ลดลงจากจุดสูงสุดที่ 381.17 จุด ตกลงมาสู่จุดต่ำสุดที่ 41.22 จุด
คิดเป็นการตกลงถึง 89% ภายในระยะเวลา 3 ปี

การตกลง 89% ของตลาดหุ้นในสหรัฐอเมริกาในตอนนั้นใกล้เคียงกับการตกลงของดัชนีตลาดหลักทรัพย์ประเทศไทย
จากจุดสูงสุดที่ 1,789 จุด ตกลงมาสู่จุดต่ำสุด 204 จุด ในช่วงวิกฤติต้มยำกุ้ง ปี พ.ศ. 2540
ซึ่งในปีถัดมา GDP ประเทศไทย ติดลบ 7.6%

ในขณะที่ปีนี้ IMF คาดการณ์ว่า GDP ประเทศไทยปีนี้ จะติดลบ 6.7%

เท่ากับว่าวิกฤติปัจจุบัน ประเทศทั่วโลก รวมถึงประเทศไทยกำลังเผชิญกับเศรษฐกิจตกต่ำรุนแรงสุดครั้งหนึ่งในรอบประวัติศาสตร์

แต่สิ่งที่เกิดขึ้นกับตลาดทุน
ทั้งในสหรัฐอเมริกา ไทย รวมถึงทั่วโลก
กลับไม่ได้ตกต่ำรุนแรงเหมือนในอดีต..

แล้วสถานการณ์ตอนนี้กับในอดีต ต่างกันอย่างไร?
ลงทุนแมนจะเล่าให้ฟัง

ถ้าบอกว่าตอนนี้เรากำลังอยู่ในช่วงวิกฤติเศรษฐกิจที่ย่ำแย่สุดในรอบประวัติศาสตร์
ทุกคนก็คงยอมรับ

แต่นโยบายทางการเงินที่ธนาคารกลางหลายประเทศทั่วโลก กำลังทำอยู่ตอนนี้
ก็ถือว่าเป็นนโยบายที่บ้าบิ่นที่สุดในประวัติศาสตร์เช่นกัน

เพราะตอนนี้ ธนาคารกลางในหลายประเทศหั่นอัตราดอกเบี้ยนโยบายลง
รวมถึงอัดฉีดเงินเข้าระบบมหาศาล แบบที่ไม่เคยเกิดขึ้นมาก่อน

การอัดฉีดเงินเข้าระบบ หรือ Quantitative Easing (QE) เป็นนโยบายทางการเงิน
ที่เริ่มต้นมาจากประเทศสหรัฐอเมริกาในยุควิกฤติซับไพรม์ ปี ค.ศ. 2008
ซึ่งใช้ได้ผลดี และทำให้สหรัฐอเมริกาฟื้นจากวิกฤติมาได้อย่างรวดเร็ว

และก็เหมือนคนเคยเจ็บป่วย กินยาหาย
เมื่อป่วยอีกก็อยากกินยานั้นอีกครั้ง..

ซึ่งรอบนี้ การอัดฉีดเงินในประเทศสหรัฐอเมริกาก็ได้วิวัฒนาการเป็น Unlimited Quantitative Easing หรือ การพิมพ์เงินอัดเข้าไปพยุงสภาพคล่อง และธุรกิจไม่จำกัดวงเงิน ไม่จำกัดระยะเวลา

ถึงตอนนี้ธนาคารกลางประเทศสหรัฐอเมริกาอัดฉีดเงินเข้าระบบไปแล้วกว่า 1.8 ล้านล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐ หรือ 58 ล้านล้านบาท คิดเป็นกว่า 3.6 เท่าเมื่อเทียบกับ GDP ประเทศไทยปีที่ผ่านมา

ทั้งหมดนี้สะท้อนไปยังความเชื่อมั่นในตลาดทุนที่ฟื้นกลับมาอย่างรวดเร็ว
แม้ว่าจะเกิด Circuit Breaker หลายครั้งในหลายประเทศตลอด 2 เดือนที่ผ่านมา

การฟื้นตัวอย่างรวดเร็วแบบนี้ สะท้อนให้เห็นว่าตอนนี้หลายคนยังมองวิกฤติโรคระบาด
มีแนวโน้มที่กำลังจะสิ้นสุดภายในไม่กี่เดือนที่จะถึงนี้ และนโยบายทางการเงินที่บ้าคลั่งกำลังจะรักษาวิกฤตินี้ได้

อย่างไรก็ตาม ก็ยังไม่มีใครรู้ว่า “สิ่งที่เราต้องจ่าย” จากการดำเนินนโยบายทางการเงินที่บ้าบิ่นขนาดนี้ จะส่งผลกระทบต่อระบบเศรษฐกิจในรูปแบบไหนบ้างในอนาคต

หากทุกอย่างกลับมาเป็นปกติโดยสมบูรณ์
ผู้คนเดินทางเป็นปกติ ไปเที่ยวเป็นปกติ
ความต้องการ กำลังซื้อของเรากลับมาที่จุดเดิม

เงินที่ล้นระบบจากนโยบายทางการเงินในวันนี้
ก็จะถูกทำให้ลดลงในอนาคต

และในวันนั้น
บุคคลที่ติดยา แต่ให้หยุดเสพ
เราก็จะได้รู้กัน ว่าอาการเป็นอย่างไร..
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อยากรู้ความเป็นไปของเศรษฐกิจโลก ต้องเข้าใจอดีต

เศรษฐกิจโลก 1,000 ปี พิมพ์ครั้งที่ 5

หนังสือเล่มนี้จะพูดถึงประวัติเศรษฐกิจโลกตั้งแต่ปี ค.ศ.1100 ไล่ยาวไปจนถึง ค.ศ.2019

สั่งซื้อได้ที่ (ซื้อตอนนี้มีส่วนลด 10% จากราคาปก 350 บาท)

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References
-https://www.history.com/…/great-de…/great-depression-history
-https://www.thebalance.com/the-great-depression-of-1929-330…
-https://www.bloomberg.com/…/fed-slows-treasury-buying-again…
-https://www.investopedia.com/t…/a/asian-financial-crisis.asp
-https://www.britannica.com/event/Asian-financial-crisis
-tradingview.com
-investing.com
Economy is bad but stocks are up / by Investing Man.
A few days ago, the British Central Bank predicted GDP this year.
Going down 14 % which is the most severe down in 300 years.

300 years are interesting numbers because that era is Sir Isaac Newton era.
The inventor of gravity theory or Thailand is the era of Krungsri Ayutthaya..
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This reflects this year's crisis worth of severe damage.
Even more than the 2 world wars era and all economic crisis that our generation can imagine.

Apart from England, many other countries are facing.
With the worst economy in history, there is no difference.

Last week USA reported numbers
Unemployment surpassed 20.5 million people in April.
Including 78 American companies have been filed bankruptcy.

This resulted in the American unemployment rate at 14.7 % level.
Which is the worst level in history.
Since Great Depression in July Prof. 1929 or 91 years ago

Crisis at that time, U.S. stock market index (Dow Jones)
Dropped from 381.17th highs, fell to 41.22th lowest point.
Think about 89 % in 3 years.

A 89 % deal of U.S. stock market at that time was close to the agreement of the Thailand Stock Exchange Index.
From the highest point at 1,789 points, I fell to the lowest point of 204 points during the crisis. Tom Yum Kung Pip. B.E. 2540
GDP Thailand is 7.6 % negative.

While this year, IMF predicts GDP Thailand will be 6.7 % negative.

It's equal to the current crisis, countries around the world, including Thailand, are facing the most severe economic crash once in history.

But what happened to the capital market
Both in USA, Thailand and around the world.
Back to back, not as severe as in the past..

So what's the difference between now and past situation?
Investing man will tell you about it.

If we say we are now in the worst economic crisis in history
Everyone would accept it.

But the monetary policy that many central banks around the world are doing now.
It's considered the craziest policy in history too.

Because now, central banks in different countries cut interest rate policies down.
Including pumping money into the system like never before.

Pumping money into a system or Quantitative Easing (QE) is a monetary policy.
Starting from USA in subprime crisis era B.E. 2008
Which works well and quickly revives the U.S. crisis.

And it's like someone who has been sick. Take medicine to heal.
When I'm sick again, I want to take that pill again..

This time, the money pumping in USA evolves into Unlimited Quantitative Easing or printing money to support liquidity and business. Unlimited amount of money. No time limit.

Until now, the Central Bank of USA has pumped over 1.8 trillion USD or 58 trillion Baht. It's more than 3.6 times compared to GDP Thailand last year.

This all reflects confidence in rapidly reviving capital markets.
Despite the Circuit Breaker many times in different countries for the last 2 months.

A speedy recovery like this reflects that many people are still looking at the epidemic crisis.
It's likely to end within the next few months and insane monetary policies are going to cure this crisis.

However, no one knows what ′′ we have to pay ′′ from implementing this crazy financial policy will impact future economic system.

If everything is completely back to normal
People travel normally, go on a regular trip.
Our purchase demands are back at the same spot.

Money overflowing from monetary policy today
Will be dropped in the future

And on that day
A person who is addicted to drugs but stop using them.
We will know how the symptoms are..
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If you want to know the possibility of the world economy, you must understand the

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This book will talk about the world economic history from July. Prof. 1100 will keep chasing until July. B.E. 2019

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Follow to invest in man at
Website - longtunman.com
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References
-https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/great-depression-history
-https://www.thebalance.com/the-great-depression-of-1929-3306033
-https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/fed-slows-treasury-buying-again-to-7-billion-a-day-next-week
-https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/asian-financial-crisis.asp
-https://www.britannica.com/event/Asian-financial-crisis
-tradingview.com
-investing.comTranslated

สรุป ทำไมหุ้นตก 30 จุดวันนี้ / โดย ลงทุนแมน

นักลงทุนชาวไทยที่ตื่นขึ้นมาเช้าวันจันทร์ จ้องมองตลาดหุ้น ดัชนีตกหนัก 30 จุด หรือคิดเป็นมูลค่าที่หายไปประมาณ 3 แสนล้านบาท ในวันเดียว

ทำไมหุ้นถึงตกหนักในวันนี้ ลงทุนแมนจะเล่าให้ฟัง
...Continue ReadingIn summary, why did the stock fall for 30 points today / by Investing Man

Thai investors who wake up Monday morning, stare at the stock market, 30 points of heavy index or think of a lost value of around 3 billion Baht in one day.

Why shares are heavy today? Investmentman will tell you about it.

It's not about Thailand, not about Thai politics, not about Thai economy, but the important cause today's global stock market is all over the world. Worries of the US-China trade war.

This has been happening Friday night in Thailand (Thai Stock Exchange is closed). China has announced that China has been imported from US Taxes.

Because the US now collects imported goods from China in many categories worth around 7.5 trillion baht, with a tax rate of 25 %

Imagine if we were Chinese, used to export products to the US from the same time, exported items for 100 baht. Now it would be charged with 25 baht, making U.S. imported costs 25 % immediately.

If a profitable product is not possible for US importers to sell the same price to US consumers.

What you need to do next is to raise the price. When you raise the price of Chinese products, you will sell less.

But there is a problem that if Chinese products are sold less, Chinese manufacturers are affected. They have to fire staff. They have to close the business and order less materials from other companies or other countries.

When Chinese companies close, they affect other sector businesses like banking and real estate.

In conclusion, there is nothing good for the US, China, and all other countries involved in the world..

China's counter-turn measures are China going to raise U.S. imported goods tax. It's in various categories that cover both crude, soy, cars.

How important are these items?

These items, China, are major imports from the U.S. and affect many people of the U.S.

For example, soybeans will directly affect US farmers because China is an importer of US soybeans.

The tax rate China collects from 10 % to 25 % similar to the US.

This is not the end..

When Donald Trump finds out this news, he's pissed off.

Immediately use Twitter's mobile phone to counter Chinese tax increase by increasing Chinese tax.

The tax on products in the original category of 7.5 trillion baht will be taxed from 25 % to 30 % will be effective on 1 October.

The tax section of new products in the new category is 9 trillion Baht. This is scheduled for 1 September. It will rise from 10 % to 15 %

These were reassured of confidence once Donald Trump flew to G7 France. British Prime Minister and journalist asked Trump if this taxpayer was thinking well? Will you think again?

Trump plays a joke that he doesn't think well. He will rethink whether he will raise the tax more than before.

When things like this, I open Monday morning to Asia's stock market, I post the whole panel.
Japanese stock market is down 2.0 %
Hong Kong stock market fell 2.8 %
Chinese stock market is down 1.0 %
U.S. stock market has gone down 2.6 % waiting since Trump's Friday night.

And this is why Thai stocks 30 points today. If it's a percentage, it's about 2.0 % consistent with other countries in the world.

This is a good idea that investment is always uncertain.

Even though I have thought well that everything is not wrong.
But in perfection we think.
Probably something that comes to turn the whole game over
Like Trump and Jinping today..
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Blockdit.com/download. Apps that are like knowledge inventory. Read for free. Download now.Translated

【時代雜誌投稿 —— 黃之鋒 x 鄺頌晴：Hong Kong Cannot Prosper Without Autonomy】

https://time.com/5844588/joshua-wong-hong-kong-cannot-prosper-without-autonomy/

By passing the resolution to develop legislation to “safeguard national security” in Hong Kong in its rubber stamp parliament, Beijing initiated “political mutual destruction” for itself and Hong Kong. Beijing’s plan to rein in Hong Kong—defying a worldwide outcry—is revenge on the democratic movement in Hong Kong which has been protesting since March 2019. It is also retaliation against the U.S. for passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act 2019.

On 27 May, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement certifying that Hong Kong no longer warrants differential treatment under U.S. law. At the same time declaring, “No reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China, given facts on the ground.” He also filed a report to the Congress, in accordance with the Act, grounding from the fact that Beijing assert its right to interpret all laws in Hong Kong in November 2019; the Liaison Office’s claims that it was exempted from Article 22 of the Basic Law in April 2020; and the national security law announced last week. He further added that the deployment of tear gas and the mass arrests and the dispatching of the People’s Armed Police into Hong Kong, all constituted a violation of the Basic Law and the Sino-British Joint Declaration. President Donald Trump will later have to invoke the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 to respond with appropriate measures, possible approaches range from economic relations, to restrictions on immigration to cultural and educational exchanges.

The U.S. response to the events over the last year signifies that it has shifted from an appeasing “change for trade” to an unyielding foreign policy towards China. From the 1980s, the free world had been hoping China would liberalize and democratize itself as trade rapidly grew between it and the world. It was a false belief that opening up the Chinese market would lead to opening up of the Chinese mindset. However, such optimism has proved to be in vain.

The special arrangement under which the U.S. treats Hong Kong differently from China on politics, trade, commerce, and other areas, stems from Hong Kong maintaining sufficient autonomy. As a holdover from its time as a British Colony, Hong Kong has a different legal and economic system. Now as Beijing tightens its grip over the city, depriving Hong Kong of its last little bit of freedom and autonomy, the basis of that special agreement is compromised. Therefore the U.S. has every right to change its policy towards Hong Kong, regardless of Beijing’s snarling about “foreign intervention” and its attempts to use Hong Kong as a bargaining chip.

Beijing has long taken advantage of Hong Kong to gain access to foreign capital and other state-of-the-art technology products. Hong Kong, enjoying special legal treatments, is the favourite channel for mainland Chinese to ship funds offshore in defiance of Beijing’s control on cross-border capital flows, taxation and corruption inspections. Distrusting their own currency, many Chinese find the Hong Kong Dollar, which is linked to the U.S. Dollar, to be more reliable. Chinese companies have swarmed into Hong Kong, pretending to be “Hong Kong companies,” amid the Sino-American trade war. Leaders in Beijing continue to reap the benefits of this arrangement while the freedoms of Hong Kongers deteriorate.

Hong Kong has long proven its strategic role in the China-U.S. dynamics. The city can be used as a loophole against the free world if the special status remains unchanged while the city is totally subject to authoritative China. The act of inserting this new national security law in a top-down manner now risks all the benefits Beijing could and did exploit, but it is all of Beijing’s own doing. Beijing is dragging Hong Kong into a “political mutual destruction” that will costs us a high price, yet the hit is necessary.

As Hong Kong loses its special status, Beijing will lose its trump card against the free world. In response to American pressure, Beijing’s short-term reaction will be more forceful. It will further crack down on the political protest movement— targeting activists, electoral candidates and legislators who have participated in international advocacy. Yet, China’s economy will be hindered in the long run, even though China will surely pretend that it is “business as usual.” It remains to be seen how severe Washington’s measure regarding Hong Kong will be, but the global repercussions facing China in the aftermaths of the pandemic will also have a serious impact on its economy.

The U.S. termination of the city’s special status is aimed at stopped Beijing’s rogue behaviour and encouraging it to reverse course on Hong Kong. The prosperity of Hong Kong is based on its autonomy, not Beijing’s dictatorship. Beijing’s decision will drive our city into dire straits in all aspects—the stock market may plunge, unemployment numbers may rise and foreign businesses may flee. But at the same time we must acknowledge there is no room for a prosperous Hong Kong without adequate amount of freedom and human rights protection.

#國際戰線 #眾志國際連結

—————————————

反國安法外媒投稿：

英國獨立報 ft. Amon Yiu：China’s new security law will be the death of liberty in Hong Kong – that’s why thousands have hit the streets：https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/hong-kong-protests-china-security-law-joshua-wong

美國華盛頓郵報 ft. Glacier Kwong：This is the final nail in the coffin for Hong Kong’s autonomy：https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/24/this-is-final-nail-coffin-hong-kongs-autonomy/

00:00 In today's episode, I have a question from Umang, who asked, "Hey Rayner, how do I scan the stock markets for my trading setup? Because there are so many stocks out there. Hundreds, if not thousands of stocks."

00:17 So my response to this is that there's a four-step procedure that you can follow, number one: finding a trading setup or a pattern is just like finding a wife.

00:37 if you are looking for a wife who is a brunette, Asian, Chinese, Indian, or whatsoever, you have to know what you're looking for in the first place, and it's the same for trading the markets.

00:54 Are you looking for a trending stock? a breakout stock, or maybe a stock that's tanked over the last twelve months and you're going to buy near the bottom whatsoever.

01:10 Once you've defined your trading setup then you can go into step two: Determine the market cap of the stocks you want to trade. For example, for those of you who are in the U.S., you have Russell 3000. Russell 3000 comprises of the large-cap, mid-cap, and the small-cap stocks. So, if you can define what market capitalization of stocks you want to trade, you can filter it down further. But if you're let's say, in Singapore, there's the large-cap, mid-cap, you have a few thereabout. You don't really need to do this classification, it's only for those of you who are in countries where you have thousands and thousands of stocks.

01:48 So once you have classified the market cap at step two, proceed to step three: Scan the markets. Let's say you want to scan stocks that are trending, what you want to do is to put up the twenty, fifty and two hundred period moving average, so if the stock is above the three moving averages, chances are it's a trending stock. You can also go through your entire watchlist and scan all the stocks which are above these moving averages. Alternatively, if you want to trade breakout stocks, you can just look for stocks that are on a 52-week high, breaking out of their 200-day high, etc. Another example I can give you is that if you want to buy stocks that are doing very bad over the last 12 months and you want to catch bottoms, what you can do is to scan stocks at their 52-week low, 200-day low, and etc.

02:44 Once you've scanned the markets, what you want to do is do number four: Put it all in a spreadsheet. Let's say you have 500 stocks to scan, you can do it all on the weekend. You want to put down those stocks in a spreadsheet that are close to having their setup occur so that when the market opens next week, you will only focus on those stocks in your spreadsheet that are about to have their setup occur. So, what you want to do is to find the gems among your 500 stocks and put it into a spreadsheet, and focus on it this coming week.

03:40 Now that you can scan the stock market and find the trading setups that you want, some of you might be wondering if there is any software to do this work for you? The only one that I do know of is Finviz, F-I-N-V-I-Z, and that is only for the U.S. stock market. They have this kind of quick scanner on whether you want to use fundamentals or technicals. As for local Singaporean stocks, Philippine stocks, Indian stocks, I do not know of such tools that are in the market right now. But for the U.S. there is Finviz. If there are no scanners you can just go through the four steps I shared with you. Number one, define your trading setup. Number two, know the market cap that you want to trade. Number three, scan the markets. And number four, put those stocks that you have scanned into a spreadsheet so you can track them when the market opens this coming week.

04:35 So that's all I have for you in this week's episode of Ask Rayner. If you're looking for proven trading strategies that work, you can go down to my website tradingwithrayner.com and access my materials for free. If you have any questions, let me know in the comments section below, and if you have enjoyed this video, hit the Like button and I would really appreciate it. I'll talk to you soon.

If you want more actionable trading tips and strategies, go to https://www.tradingwithrayner.com

Thanks for watching!

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