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這裡有一份安聯(Allianz)對於過去幾次Fed升息對股市的影響的研究報告("Historical lessons from Federal Reserve rate-hike cycles". 我目前沒有時間翻成中文. 有興趣的朋友可以先看一下(我會盡量找時間整理). 若是有讀者可以翻成中文並分享給我與其他讀者, 我報一支明牌給您(絕對不是twitter).
謝謝股友分享這個資訊.
https://www.allianzglobalinvestors.de/MDBWS/doc/14-03-151%20Fokus%20Asset%20Return%20EN-01.pdf?326b03ff8cd602cf0e48de5a14e01376b5aca0e0webweb
Quote:" Glenn Rudebusch, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, studied US recessions as an insurance actuary might study the incidence of death in the population. An 80-year-old person is more likely to die in his 81st year than a 50-year-old person is to die at 51. But expansions don’t behave that way, he found. An expansion in its eighth year was no more likely to end than on in its fifth."
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My opinion:
This is a stereotype of the failure macro-economics. Macro-economists tend to try to find any remote pattern between two selected phenomenons but have no idea of the economic logic. Mr. Rudebusch just forgot the physical constraints are very different between the aging of a person and the economic expansion.
Aging weakens the physical conditions of the body of a person, however, expansions do not weaken the economy. People should pay more attention on figuring out the marginal changes in the objective conditions which genuinely impact the economic progress.
This is a boring and useless comparison.
On the other hand, I think the main causes of the business cycles are transaction costs and the law of diminishing marginal productivity, especially the marginal productivity of the capital.
The transaction costs make people making mistakes on investing, including arrangements of capital, time, and efforts, or the rise of the transaction costs reduces total economic activities and creating economic rents for interest groups and politicians to search.
And the law of diminishing marginal productivity limits the speed of the wealth accumulating. It usually causes financial activities to unhook the real economic activities and breeds possibilities of the future financial crisis.
Free markets are not free. They cost a lot to operate smoothly. Politicians are usually in the way for self-interests. It means that politicians are not the solution to the problems of the economy, but the problems themselves.
https://www.wsj.com/…/after-record-long-expansion-heres-wha…
