eyes stock offering的八卦，Yahoo名人娛樂都在討論

【 黎安友專文 l 中國如何看待香港危機 】

美國哥倫比亞大學的資深中國通黎安友（Andrew Nathan）教授最近在《外交事務》（Foreign Affairs）雜誌的專文，值得一看。

黎安友是台灣許多中國研究學者的前輩級老師，小英總統去哥大演講時，正是他積極促成。小英在美國的僑宴，黎安友也是座上賓。

這篇文章的標題是：「中國如何看待香港危機：北京自我克制背後的真正原因」。

文章很長，而且用英文寫，需要花點時間閱讀。大家有空可以看看。

Andrew這篇文章的立論基礎，是來自北京核心圈的匿名說法。以他在學術界的地位，我相信他對消息來源已經做了足夠的事實查核或確認。

這篇文章，是在回答一個疑問：中共為何在香港事件如此自制？有人說是怕西方譴責，有人說是怕損害香港的金融地位。

都不是。這篇文章認為，上述兩者都不是中共的真實顧慮。

無論你多痛恨中共，你都必須真實面對你的敵人。

中共是搞經濟階級鬥爭起家的，當年用階級鬥爭打敗國民黨。而現在，中共正用這樣的思維處理香港議題。

文章有一句話：“China’s response has been rooted not in anxiety but in confidence.” 這句話道盡階級鬥爭的精髓。

中共一點都不焦慮。相反地，中共很有自信，香港的菁英階級及既得利益的收編群體，到最後會支持中共。

這個分化的心理基礎，來自經濟上的利益。

文中還提到，鄧小平當年給香港五十年的一國兩制，就是為了「給香港足夠的時間適應中共的政治系統」。

1997年，香港的GDP佔中國的18%。2018年，這個比例降到2.8%。

今日的香港經濟，在中共的評估，是香港需要中國，而不是中國需要香港。

中共正在在意的，是香港的高房價問題。香港的房價，在過去十年內三倍翻漲。

文章是這樣描述：
“Housing prices have tripled over the past decade; today, the median price of a house is more than 20 times the median gross annual household income. The median rent has increased by nearly 25 percent in the past six years. As many as 250,000 people are waiting for public housing. At the same time, income growth for many Hong Kong residents has fallen below the overall increase in cost of living.”

無論你同不同意這些說法，都請你試圖客觀地看看這篇文章。

有趣的是，黎安友在文章中部分論點引述了他的消息來源（但他並沒有加上個人評論），部分是他自己的觀察。

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新書：《 我在外交部工作 》

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黎安友原文：

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-09-30/how-china-sees-hong-kong-crisis?fbclid=IwAR2PwHns5gWrw0fT0sa5LuO8zgv4PhLmkYfegtBgoOMCD3WJFI3w5NTe0S4

How China Sees the Hong Kong Crisis
The Real Reasons Behind Beijing’s Restraint

By Andrew J. Nathan September 30, 2019

Massive and sometimes violent protests have rocked Hong Kong for over 100 days. Demonstrators have put forward five demands, of which the most radical is a call for free, direct elections of Hong Kong’s chief executive and all members of the territory’s legislature: in other words, a fully democratic system of local rule, one not controlled by Beijing. As this brazen challenge to Chinese sovereignty has played out, Beijing has made a show of amassing paramilitary forces just across the border in Shenzhen. So far, however, China has not deployed force to quell the unrest and top Chinese leaders have refrained from making public threats to do so.

Western observers who remember the violent crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square 30 years ago have been puzzled by Beijing’s forbearance. Some have attributed Beijing’s restraint to a fear of Western condemnation if China uses force. Others have pointed to Beijing’s concern that a crackdown would damage Hong Kong’s role as a financial center for China.

But according to two Chinese scholars who have connections to regime insiders and who requested anonymity to discuss the thinking of policymakers in Beijing, China’s response has been rooted not in anxiety but in confidence. Beijing is convinced that Hong Kong’s elites and a substantial part of the public do not support the demonstrators and that what truly ails the territory are economic problems rather than political ones—in particular, a combination of stagnant incomes and rising rents. Beijing also believes that, despite the appearance of disorder, its grip on Hong Kong society remains firm. The Chinese Communist Party has long cultivated the territory’s business elites (the so-called tycoons) by offering them favorable economic access to the mainland. The party also maintains a long-standing loyal cadre of underground members in the territory. And China has forged ties with the Hong Kong labor movement and some sections of its criminal underground. Finally, Beijing believes that many ordinary citizens are fearful of change and tired of the disruption caused by the demonstrations.

Beijing therefore thinks that its local allies will stand firm and that the demonstrations will gradually lose public support and eventually die out. As the demonstrations shrink, some frustrated activists will engage in further violence, and that in turn will accelerate the movement’s decline. Meanwhile, Beijing is turning its attention to economic development projects that it believes will address some of the underlying grievances that led many people to take to the streets in the first place.

This view of the situation is held by those at the very top of the regime in Beijing, as evidenced by recent remarks made by Chinese President Xi Jinping, some of which have not been previously reported. In a speech Xi delivered in early September to a new class of rising political stars at the Central Party School in Beijing, he rejected the suggestion of some officials that China should declare a state of emergency in Hong Kong and send in the People’s Liberation Army. “That would be going down a political road of no return,” Xi said. “The central government will exercise the most patience and restraint and allow the [regional government] and the local police force to resolve the crisis.” In separate remarks that Xi made around the same time, he spelled out what he sees as the proper way to proceed: “Economic development is the only golden key to resolving all sorts of problems facing Hong Kong today.”

ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS, MANY QUESTIONS

Chinese decision-makers are hardly surprised that Hong Kong is chafing under their rule. Beijing believes it has treated Hong Kong with a light hand and has supported the territory’s economy in many ways, especially by granting it special access to the mainland’s stocks and currency markets, exempting it from the taxes and fees that other Chinese provinces and municipalities pay the central government, and guaranteeing a reliable supply of water, electricity, gas, and food. Even so, Beijing considers disaffection among Hong Kong’s residents a natural outgrowth of the territory’s colonial British past and also a result of the continuing influence of Western values. Indeed, during the 1984 negotiations between China and the United Kingdom over Hong Kong’s future, the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping suggested following the approach of “one country, two systems” for 50 years precisely to give people in Hong Kong plenty of time to get used to the Chinese political system.

But “one country, two systems” was never intended to result in Hong Kong spinning out of China’s control. Under the Basic Law that China crafted as Hong Kong’s “mini-constitution,” Beijing retained the right to prevent any challenge to what it considered its core security interests. The law empowered Beijing to determine if and when Hong Kongers could directly elect the territory’s leadership, allowed Beijing to veto laws passed by the Hong Kong Legislative Council, and granted China the right to make final interpretations of the Basic Law. And there would be no question about who had a monopoly of force. During the negotiations with the United Kingdom, Deng publicly rebuked a top Chinese defense official—General Geng Biao, who at the time was a patron of a rising young official named Xi Jinping—for suggesting that there might not be any need to put troops in Hong Kong. Deng insisted that a Chinese garrison was necessary to symbolize Chinese sovereignty.

Statements made by U.S. politicians in support of the recent demonstrations only confirm Beijing’s belief that Washington seeks to inflame radical sentiments in Hong Kong.

At first, Hong Kongers seemed to accept their new role as citizens of a rising China. In 1997, in a tracking poll of Hong Kong residents regularly conducted by researchers at the University of Hong Kong, 47 percent of respondents identified themselves as “proud” citizens of China. But things went downhill from there. In 2012, the Hong Kong government tried to introduce “patriotic education” in elementary and middle schools, but the proposed curriculum ran into a storm of local opposition and had to be withdrawn. In 2014, the 79-day Umbrella Movement brought hundreds of thousands of citizens into the streets to protest Beijing’s refusal to allow direct elections for the chief executive. And as authoritarianism has intensified under Xi’s rule, events such as the 2015 kidnapping of five Hong Kong–based publishers to stand trial in the mainland further soured Hong Kong opinion. By this past June, only 27 percent of respondents to the tracking poll described themselves as “proud” to be citizens of China. This year’s demonstrations started as a protest against a proposed law that would have allowed Hong Kongers suspected of criminal wrongdoing to be extradited to the mainland but then developed into a broad-based expression of discontent over the lack of democratic accountability, police brutality, and, most fundamentally, what was perceived as a mainland assault on Hong Kong’s unique identity.

Still, Chinese leaders do not blame themselves for these shifts in public opinion. Rather, they believe that Western powers, especially the United States, have sought to drive a wedge between Hong Kong and the mainland. Statements made by U.S. politicians in support of the recent demonstrations only confirm Beijing’s belief that Washington seeks to inflame radical sentiments in Hong Kong. As Xi explained in his speech in September:
As extreme elements in Hong Kong turn more and more violent, Western forces, especially the United States, have been increasingly open in their involvement. Some extreme anti-China forces in the United States are trying to turn Hong Kong into the battleground for U.S.-Chinese rivalry…. They want to turn Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy into de facto independence, with the ultimate objective to contain China's rise and prevent the revival of the great Chinese nation.

Chinese leaders do not fear that a crackdown on Hong Kong would inspire Western antagonism. Rather, they take such antagonism as a preexisting reality—one that goes a long way toward explaining why the disorder in Hong Kong broke out in the first place. In Beijing’s eyes, Western hostility is rooted in the mere fact of China’s rise, and thus there is no use in tailoring China’s Hong Kong strategy to influence how Western powers would respond.

IT’S NOT ABOUT THE BENJAMINS

The view that Xi has not deployed troops because of Hong Kong’s economic importance to the mainland is also misguided, and relies on an outdated view of the balance of economic power. In 1997, Hong Kong’s GDP was equivalent to 18 percent of the mainland’s. Most of China’s foreign trade was conducted through Hong Kong, providing China with badly needed hard currencies. Chinese companies raised most of their capital on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Today, things are vastly different. In 2018, Hong Kong’s GDP was equal to only 2.7 percent of the mainland’s. Shenzhen alone has overtaken Hong Kong in terms of GDP. Less than 12 percent of China’s exports now flow through Hong Kong. The combined market value of China’s domestic stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen far surpasses that of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and Chinese companies can also list in Frankfurt, London, New York, and elsewhere.

Although Hong Kong remains the largest offshore clearing center for renminbi, that role could easily be filled by London or Singapore, if Chinese leaders so desired.
Investment flowing into and out of China still tends to pass through financial holding vehicles set up in Hong Kong, in order to benefit from the region’s legal protections. But China’s new foreign investment law (which will take effect on January 1, 2020) and other recent policy changes mean that such investment will soon be able to bypass Hong Kong. And although Hong Kong remains the largest offshore clearing center for renminbi, that role could easily be filled by London or Singapore, if Chinese leaders so desired.

Wrecking Hong Kong’s economy by using military force to impose emergency rule would not be a good thing for China. But the negative effect on the mainland’s prosperity would not be strong enough to prevent Beijing from doing whatever it believes is necessary to maintain control over the territory.

CAN’T BUY ME LOVE?

As it waits out the current crisis, Beijing has already started tackling the economic problems that it believes are the source of much of the anger among Hong Kongers. Housing prices have tripled over the past decade; today, the median price of a house is more than 20 times the median gross annual household income. The median rent has increased by nearly 25 percent in the past six years. As many as 250,000 people are waiting for public housing. At the same time, income growth for many Hong Kong residents has fallen below the overall increase in cost of living.

【玳瑚師父客人見證】 《不過八月十五的預言》
The Prophecy: Not Beyond Mid-Autumn (English version below)

文 / 李季謙 女士 Written by Ms. Lee Ji Qian

撥電給玳瑚師父的那一天下午，我乘坐的德士，正駕駛在中央快速公路上。那是2006年中秋節的前兩個星期，記憶猶新。眼看我外婆的病情每況愈下，我迫切地想知道外婆還能活多久。那時的我從事空服員的工作，我擔心萬一外婆過世，我在國外無法第一時間趕回來看她最後一面，怎麽辦?

在車上，我不斷祈求玳瑚師父告訴我外婆的壽命還有多久。他不肯，他說做師父的其中一個避忌就是不算壽命，因爲很多人嘴巴說無所謂，知道答案後，心裡卻會七上八下，家人甚至會責怪師父嚇人。那時，外婆已皈依在蓮生活佛門下，我告訴師父家裡只有我和外婆是皈依的佛教徒，我很希望外婆過世時，我能夠為她做臨終關懷八小時，引導她往投極樂。

在電話的另一端，師父沉默許久，一句話也不說。我想慘了，如果師父不肯告訴我，我該如何是好？如何向公司請假？

「不過八月十五。」

什麽，師父，你說什麽？中秋節八月十五？師父，我都還沒告訴你外婆的生辰，你只知道她的名字和生肖，就能斷定嗎？

師父重覆說了一遍，並溫馨地告訴我到時遇到任何問題時，儘管撥電給他。就這樣，我們的通話結束了。

農曆八月十四的早上，在中央醫院復診時，醫生說外婆的血壓忽然降低，需要入院輸血。我便為外婆辦理入院手續，和照料外婆的女傭一直陪伴在外婆左右。幾個星期來，飛行穿梭與五大洲之間，熬夜時差，加上多次帶外婆來往醫院，每一次都花好幾個鐘頭在醫院等待，身心已疲憊不堪。我看著在病床上的外婆，輸血後她氣色開始好轉，醫生說一切穩定。外婆知道我很累，屢勸我回家休息。但師父的預言一直懸挂在我心中，本想留下來陪外婆一晚，但那天的入院來的突然，我沒準備任何衣物。那時的我住在兀蘭，離新加坡中央醫院很遠。我先生在一旁也勸我回家好好休息，才有更好的精神繼續和外婆說佛法及一同唸佛。

我猶豫著。師父為我做的預言從來沒有錯過。但外婆氣色之佳，是近幾個月從未曾有的。我這幾個月，也一直都有修法回向給外婆，可能奇跡出現了吧！

于是，農曆八月十五的淩晨一點二十分左右，我回家了。

早上十點二十分，女傭打了通電話給我。她不大會說英文，只是很情急地說外婆想見我，要我快點來醫院。我天真地以爲是外婆睡醒後，想見我。

早上十點四十五分，表姐打電話給我，哭著說外婆已過世了。那時的我，腦海裡立刻浮現師父所說的「不過八月十五。」 連半天都過不了。我的心一直往下沉。爲什麽我問了師父卻又不淨信他的話？爲什麽我沒有把師父的預言告訴我的家人？爲什麽我就不能在醫院熬多一天？生死皆天定，我怎麽不自量力地以爲自己那點修法回響就能改寫外婆的生死呢？原來人說死前的迴光返照是這麽一回事！天啊！我竟然那麽不孝，讓外婆過世時，身邊只有一個女傭，一個親人都沒有！

在醫院撥打電話給師父時，他很快就接聽了。第一句話一說完，我已泣不成聲了。師父說他一早起床，就不斷地有我外婆和我的影子，他知道事情不出他預料中，因此一直在等待我的電話。師父不但沒有怪我不夠相信他，還提醒我要為外婆做的佛事，也開導我說八月十五是月圓圓滿之日，外婆在這日離去也象徵她的一生已圓滿，她十多年的病業終于還清了，從病苦中解脫了，我應該為她高興。師父知道我性格衝動，再三叮嚀我在外婆停柩期間，勿和家人起衝突。

這也是我第二件遺憾的事。我那時學佛尚淺，包容、平等對待和處事圓融的道理，我無法實踐。我不但在外婆的遺體前爲了她的生後事，向家人耍狠，在喪禮上，因爲不苟同他們的做法，脾氣更是一「發」不可收拾。說什麽佛教徒，真是貽笑大方！我怎麽就沒有好好學師父那般的度量呢？

外婆過世後的那七天裡，家人陸續都夢到她回來和他們敍舊。唯獨我沒有。我很納悶。外婆臨終前，唯一想見的人是我，爲何卻沒托夢給我？她不是有話跟我說嗎？（其實是我多想在外婆面前跟她說萬萬個對不起。）想著，想著，我想到師父常教我在睡前的結界法，保護自己在睡夢中不被鬼魅魍魎干擾盜氣，出國在外也能平安。我睡前也必定會結界，這法非常實用也有真實的法力！

那晚，在紐約的酒店裡，我冒了一個險，沒行結界法。當晚，我就夢到自己在兒時住家附近（也是外婆的舊家）的停車場。我不知不覺走到一輛米色的「馬賽地」旁邊，低頭一看，咦，是外婆，穿著那熟悉的衣裳，坐在駕駛座位上。我叫她，以廣東話問：「婆婆，妳會駕車啊？」（外婆生前沒有駕駛執照）　她轉頭，跟我說：「幫公公皈依吧！」 我答：「皈依啊？好啊！」

我就猛然醒來了，趕緊看時間，是清晨五點多。師父曾說在早上五點至七點之間做的夢是真實的。我梳洗後，即刻撥長途電話給在新加坡的師父。外公已過世十多年，在夢裡，外婆要我為外公皈依時，我已知道他尚未投胎，生前沒聽聞過佛法，更別説往生極樂了。而當外婆提到皈依時，我心裡的直覺說她指的是皈依我們的根本上師，蓮生活佛，絕非他人。最神的是，夢裡外婆的車和家人在喪禮中焚化給她的，是一模一樣的！

師父在電話中花了一個鐘頭的時間，耐心地教導我。他說我得先回到外婆生前的居所，向那裡的祖先牌位請示外公是否真的想皈依蓮生活佛。除了攜帶外公生前愛吃的食物，我也得先上香供養家門外供奉的天公、土地神和門神，祈求祂們允許我外公的魂魄入屋。

回囯後的隔天，我和兩位表姪女一起到外婆家，一一跟著師父的指示照做。我們三人上了香，跪在祖先牌位前，呼叫外公時，不可思議的事情發生了！刹那間，我們三人同時感覺到有股強烈的陰氣從我們背後的大門進來，再看到一個黑影從我們身旁快速地飃過，到祖先牌位的供桌上，頓時，我們全身都起了雞皮疙瘩。卜杯請示外公是否要皈依蓮生活佛時，連續得了三個聖杯！我的夢是真實的！師父教的真管用！

當下，我既讚嘆又感恩玳瑚師父，是他引我皈依蓮生活佛。在他之前，我根本沒聼過蓮生活佛的盛名。因爲我的皈依，我好幾個家人也皈依。師父常說死人的眼睛是雪亮的。外公生前非常疼愛我，沒想到，我和外婆的皈依也會讓他想向佛了！我是多麽的雀躍啊！我讚嘆師父那麽好眼光，有福份，一生只皈依一個上師，而且是一位已開悟成佛的上師，怪不得師父的本領那麽了得。我更感恩他不辭辛勞地廣揚佛法，讓我們這些門外漢能學到人生最大的一件事到底是什麽。

我是一個差勁的弟子，脾氣又不好，兩次被師父「停學」，每一次長達半年，更曾被沒收所有的筆記和課本。但在「停學」期間，師父仍慈悲教導我如何處理外婆的生後事。可能你覺得他是修行人，是玄學師父，不給他錢，他仍然應該幫你消災解厄，給他錢，他更要幫你逢凶化吉。我的看法卻是，自己的問題本來就應該自己解決。沒有人是「應該」幫你的，師父也不是一個你能用錢買的人，更不可以因爲師父沒有幫你這一次或看法不一，便因「愛」成「恨」，來個「秦始王燒書」 般地把過去師父幫過自己的恩都忘得一乾二淨，再來個翻臉不認「師」。這般無情無義的人我看的實在太多了。

這兩天趕緊將這篇個人見證寫完，並翻譯，已此供養玳瑚師父為他的「生日」禮物。農曆八月十五是玳瑚師父皈依真佛之日。他常說這一天才是他真正的生日，皈依學佛前的日子懵懂無意，虛度光陰，貴為佛子後，自己才真正「活」起來，成爲有智慧有貢獻的能人。兒子的事業這麽有意義，我想師父的父母一定會以他為榮。

如果你也像我一樣，曾經請示過師父，卻在信與不信之間進退兩難，希望我這篇文章能給你一點啓發，更盼你不會有我這般的遺憾。

祝大家中秋節快樂。

我在此也誠心地祝玳瑚師父「生日」快樂。謝謝您在無止境的萬難中，仍堅持帶給我們光明。我祈禱，願您的一生有如今晚的月輪一樣地美麗、圓滿、吉祥，願您早日修成正果，速登彼岸。阿彌陀佛。

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It was one afternoon in the year 2006, 2 weeks from the Mid-Autumn Festival. I was travelling along the Central Expressway in a cab when I made a call to Master Dai Hu. The memory was still fresh. My grandmother's health was deteriorating by the day, and I desperately wanted to know how much longer she could hold on. I was working as a flight attendant at that time, and the fear was that I might be overseas and not able to see her the final time when she breathed her last.

During the taxi ride, I pleaded incessantly for Master Dai Hu to answer my burning question. He refused. He said that as a Master, it was a taboo to predict one's life span because the answer would drive many towards anxiety and hysteria, even when they seemed nonchalant initially. At that time, my grandmother had already taken refuge under Living Buddha Lian-Sheng, and I told Master Dai Hu that since my grandmother and myself were the only Buddhists who had taken refuge in the family, I really hoped to provide some form of hospice care, and perform the proper rites during the crucial 8-hour time window after her passing to guide her towards rebirth into the Pure Land.

There was total silence on the other end of the line for a long time. Master Dai Hu did not utter a single sound. I was doomed, I thought to myself, if Master refused to tell me, what should I do? How could I apply for leave of absence from my employer?

"It would not be beyond the fifteenth day of the Eighth Lunar Month". Finally the silence was broken.

What, Master, what did you just? You meant the Mid-Autumn Festival? But I had not even tell you the birth date and time of my grandmother. You only knew her name and Chinese Zodiac Sign, how could you be so sure?

Master Dai Hu repeated his prediction again, and told me warmly that I could call him anytime if I encountered any problem. With that, our conversation ended.

This was the fourteenth day of the Eighth Lunar Month. The doctor told me that Grandma's blood count suffered a drastic drop, and had to be admitted to hospital for a blood transfusion. After I had done the paper works for the admittance, I stayed with her, together with her maid. I was totally physically and mentally exhausted. Flying around the world had taken its toll on me, with the late nights and jet lags, not to mention the many hospital trips I made with Grandmother over the past few weeks and every hospital visit spanned over a few hours. I looked at Grandma who was lying on her hospital bed. She looked much better after the blood transfusion and the doctor said all was well. Grandma knew I was washed out and kept asking me to go home and rest. Master Dai Hu's prediction was constantly on my mind. I had wanted to stay for one more night to accompany Grandma but the hospital admission that day was unexpected and I did not prepare any overnight bag. I was staying at Woodlands at that time and it was far from SGH. My husband who was by my side advised me to go home to rest too as he felt that I needed to be in a better condition to continue sharing the Dharma and reciting the Buddha's name with Grandma.

I hesitated. Master's predictions for me always rang true. But my Grandma looked quite good, something which I have not seen in months. Furthermore, I have been doing spiritual practices and dedicating the merits to her. Perhaps a miracle had happened!

At about 120am on the fifteenth day of the Eighth Lunar Month, I went home.

My phone rang at 1020am. It was the maid. She was not really conversant in English but told me anxiously that Grandma wanted to see me, and asked if I was on the way. I naively shrugged it off, thinking it might just be Grandma wanting to see me after her sleep.

Another phone call came in at 1045am, the sobbing and muffled voice of my cousin on the other end, telling me that Grandma had passed away. At that very moment, the words of Master "Not beyond the fifteenth day of the Eighth Lunar Month" reverberated through me. My heart sank to the rock bottom. Why did I ask Master for his prediction when I was not prepared to have complete faith in him? Why had I not told this prediction to my family members? Why could I not just stay in hospital with Grandma for that one more night? Life and death are both predestined. How could I think so highly of myself and believe that meagre merits from my spiritual practice was sufficient to rewrite her fate? Now I realized the truth in the saying that a person before his or her imminent death would look as if he or she is well. Goodness gracious! I was so unfilial to had left Grandma alone, on her death bed with no family member but only the maid beside her!

I phoned Master Dai Hu at the hospital and he answered very quickly. Once the first words were spoken, I had already broken down in sobs. Master said that he woke up early that morning with a premonition. He kept "seeing" images of my Grandma and myself, and knew in an instant that his prediction had prevailed and had been waiting for my call. Not only did Master not reprimand me for not having enough faith in him, he even reminded me on the list of things to do for Grandma's funeral. He counseled me, saying that for Grandma to bade this world farewell on the fifteenth day of the Eighth Lunar Month, it signified that she had lived a full and complete life, and that her karmic debt of suffering from illnesses the past 10 over years had finally been repaid. He said I should be glad that Grandma had been released from her pains and sufferings. Master was well aware of my rash temperament, and reminded me many times not to squabble with the family members during the funeral wake.

This has to be the other regrettable thing in this episode. My understanding of the Dharma was shallow then, and I did not practice the ways of endurance, equality, and did not consider the feelings of others in handling things. Not only did I pressurize my family members over the arrangements of Grandma's funeral, my bad temper flared uncontrollably during the funeral as I was not in agreement with the rest of the family members. All this talk about being a Buddhist turned me into a laughing stock! Why could I not learn from Master, who was and still is always so magnanimous and gracious?

During the seven-day period after Grandma's passing, many family members dreamed of her continually. I was the only one not to have seen her in my dreams. This was very puzzling for me. At the time of her passing, Grandma was calling out for me. Why did she not appear in my dreams? Did she not have anything to say to me? (Truthfully, I wanted very much to say a million sorry to her in person). As I was pondering over this matter, I remembered a demarcation method taught to me by Master, to protect myself against spirits stealing my life essence and disrupting my sleep, and to stay safe while I was overseas. This demarcation was something I always did before going to bed, and it really proved itself as a useful and powerful Dharma practice.

That night, in my hotel room in New York, I took a risk and forgo the demarcation procedure before I slept. That very night, I dreamed of Grandma! I was at the car park, near my childhood residence (also near Grandma's previous residence). I was walking along a pavement and ended up beside a cream-coloured Mercedes Benz. I looked down, and there she was! My Grandma was wearing her usual clothing and seated in the driver's seat. I called out to her and asked in Cantonese, "Grandma, you know how to drive?" Grandma did not have a driving license when she was alive. She turned to speak to me, "Help your Grandfather to take refuge!" I answered, "Take refuge? Ok!"

I jolted out from sleep, and hurriedly looked at the clock. It was five plus in the morning. Master once said that dreams occurring between 5am - 7am were real. I washed up, and called Master who was in Singapore immediately. My Grandfather has been dead for more than 10 years. In my dream, when Grandma wanted me to take refuge for Grandfather, I knew then that Grandfather had yet to go through reincarnation. He did not hear the Dharma during his lifetime, so he could not have been reborn into the Pure Land. When Grandma spoke of taking refuge, my intuition told me that she was referring to our Root Guru, Living Buddha Lian-Sheng, whom we took refuge in, and no one else. The next amazing thing was that the car in which Grandma was seated in the dream looked exactly the same as the one the family members burnt as an offering to her during the funeral!

Master spent an hour on the phone with me, patiently guiding me. He said I needed to return to my Grandma's house and seek answers from the ancestors at the ancestral tablet if my Grandfather really wanted to take refuge in Living Buddha Lian-Sheng. Other than preparing my Grandfather's favorite snacks, I had to offer incense and other offerings to the Jade Emperor, the Earth Deity as well as the Door Guardians, who were enshrined outside my Grandma's home, and request for smooth entry of my Grandfather's spirit into the house.

A few days upon my return to Singapore, I went to my Grandma's house, together with my two nieces. I followed Master's instruction to the tee. The three of us offered incense, knelt down in front of the ancestral tablet and called for my Grandfather. Something extraordinary happened next! In the flash of an eye, the 3 of us felt a strong Yin energy coming in from the main door, and witnessed a black shadowy figure slid past us in speed, and onto the ancestral tablet. Momentarily, our hair stood on end and all of us felt goosebumps on our skins. When I threw the divination blocks and asked if it was Grandfather's wish to take refuge in Living Buddha Lian-Sheng, the answer was positive with three consecutive yes! My dream was real after all! The method which Master taught really worked well!

Instantly, I was in awe, and at the same time, extremely grateful to Master Dai Hu. He was the one who guided me to take refuge in Living Buddha Lian-Sheng. Before that, I never hear of Him. Because of my taking refuge, a few of my family members followed suit. Master often said that the dead had the brightest eyes. Grandfather doted on me very much when he was alive, and never did I expect Grandfather to follow my Grandma and I in taking refuge and seek the Dharma. I was totally elated! I praised Master for his foresight, and his great fortune of taking refuge in a one and only one Guru Master, one who had attained perfect Enlightenment. It is no wonder that Master Dai Hu has such great skills too. I am also grateful for his relentless pursuits to propagate the Dharma, enabling layman like us to learn, understand and prepare for the biggest event of our life.

I am a lousy disciple with bad temperament. Twice, I was booted out by Master and not allowed to learn from him for as long as 6 months. My notes and books were confiscated. However, even when I did not see Master during those periods, he showed compassion and guided me through the ordeal of my Grandma's passing. Perhaps you might think that it is his duty as a spiritual practitioner and Chinese metaphysicist to show compassion and help others in need even if no money is paid to him, and if money is paid, all the more he should help the clients out of their troubles.

My take on this: We must take responsibility for our own problems. No one owe us any form of help or assistance. And Master Dai Hu is definitely not someone you can buy with money. If he does not render his help to you or both of you have a different opinion on certain issues, you cannot go from having admiration to bearing resentment towards him over that. I have seen too many ungrateful people who erase all the memories of the good that Master had once done for them, pretty much like how Emperor Qin burnt the books, with no trace left and turned their backs on Master, like they had never known him.

Over the last two days, I rushed to complete this testimonial as a present to Master Dai Hu on his "birthday". It was this auspicious day, the fifteenth day of the Eighth Lunar Month, that Master Dai Hu took refuge in True Buddha and became a Buddhist. He often said that this day felt more like his real birthday. Before learning the Dharma and taking refuge, he led a life of meaningless existence, squandering away youth and time. Only when he became a Buddhist did he truly come to life, begin to live in wisdom and gain great ability, while making useful and meaningful contributions to the society. With such a noble career, I guess his parents must be very proud of having a son like him.

If you are to be in my shoes one day, having asked Master for advice but still teetering on the border and unsure if you should believe him, I hope my story will inspire you and not let you suffer the same regrets as I did.

Wishing everyone a Happy Mid-Autumn Festival.

And I genuinely wish Master Dai Hu a "Happy Birthday". Thank you for bringing the Light to us, despite the endless obstacles you constantly battle. I pray that your life will be as beautiful, complete and auspicious as the full moon tonight. May you soon attain the fruit of perfect and complete Enlightenment. Amituofo.

www.masterdaihu.com/the-prophecy-not-beyond-mid-autumn/

🌻風險管理

跌了幾十趴的個股還要繼續抱下去嗎? 去年飆漲的SPAC, 今年還漲的回來嗎?(可以跟下篇一起看).

開始玩成長股後, 我學到最難的一堂課是風險控制. 每個人對風險控制的觀念不一樣, 這跟每個人的心理素質也有關係.

風險管理, 也就是"留得青山在, 不怕沒柴燒".

風險管理:
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86

🌻There Are Too Many Defenseless(無防禦性的) Stocks
(可以的話, 我希望您可以好好讀一下這篇文章. 我希望能夠幫您守住些財富, 減少些損失, 甚至創造些獲利. "Too many", 也就代表了股票沒有稀有性)

The underwriters just created too many stocks. There's too many new companies, too many companies that help you with analytics(分析), too many that offer video, too many data collectors and too many real-time analysis, and too many cybersecurity companies. There's been too many new electric vehicle derivatives, too many cannabis (大麻) plays and way too many new fintechs(金融科技).

The effect? We are now facing a bewildering number of companies that simply do the same things and can't be differentiated (無差異性的) and, frankly, are too hard to understand unless you are deeply involved in the transfer of data from on your premises to the cloud(雲端).

Why does this matter?

Because these stocks are defenseless. They are defenseless against inflation (通膨) because so many of them sell at a multiple to sales and any company that trades as a multiple to sales (指的是以P/S為估值方式, 非傳統的P/E. 軟體公司主要是用P/S) will see its value erode more quickly than any other in this stock market because the company has to graduate from a multiple to sales to a multiple of earnings, or just keep losing money. So many new investors have not experienced real inflation where these kinds of stocks can't be given away.

They are defenseless against an economic boom. I have been reading through countless software as a whatever with a go to market strategy and a huge TAM (total addressable market, 指的是市場大小) to land and expand(指的是雲端公司的商業模式), and my eyes glaze over. Who needs a company with all of those buzzwords that's growing at 27% and losing money when I have plenty of high quality industrials that are growing at 27% and spewing cash to the point the biggest issue is how much should be put to growth versus rewarding shareholders.

They are defenseless against older companies with a balanced policy toward dividends and buybacks, so that supply is mopped up while demand is bolstered by a yield. The land and expanders don't have anything backing them up which makes them vulnerable to sudden shocks down as we have seen.

They are defenseless against insider selling. If capital gains rates are going up, these are the companies with the most vulnerable stocks because so many of the people in these new companies have stocks that are still up substantially from when they got stock so a company with a stock down 30%-40% is vulnerable from scads of insider selling, including secondaries I am now expecting with increasing frequency.

They are defenseless against SPACs. While there are many good SPACs there are too many SPACs with too much stock sloshing around. I keep thinking about that MP Materials (MP) secondary offering in late March, where entities controlled by CEO James Litinsky sold 4.6 million shares of his company in a deal priced at $35. Now it is a small percentage of his holdings and many others involved with the company sold small amounts, too. That's not the point. It's more of a statement: this stock traded at $50. You might have been inclined to buy on the pullback but you would have been massacred as the stock is now at $27. If you have a so-called successful SPAC its success might be measured by how much money you took out of it before its stock fell by 50%. There are hundreds of things and when you consider all of the warrants out there, you know this market is going to be overwhelmed with this stuff.

You aren't going to see these kinds of secondaries at Deere (DE) or Caterpillar (CAT) , that's for certain.

Now there are people out there willing to buy the incredibly almost stupidly risky stocks, people like Cathie Wood, who demonstrated her unflappable conviction to her method of buying stocks that worked when there's scarcity value but there's anything but that now.

Maybe she can take down tens of billions of dollars worth and save the day. I wouldn't count on it. I am sorry to question her stock picking, lord knows she's been amazing. But unless others copy her, we know the stocks she is buying resemble what's not working at all. Maybe someday, but not now.

I try to figure out what the end game for these stocks might be if the economy keeps heating up and inflation accelerates. There's simply not enough money from young people or ETFs based on high growth or Cathie Wood to keep these stocks higher, and there's too much opportunity for the insiders to do what MP did, something that crunched the stock even as it reported a quarter ahead of expectations, which meant something at one point but means absolutely nothing now. Nothing at all.

文章來源: https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer-there-are-too-many-defenseless-stocks-15649142

Picture來源:
https://society6.com/product/boxing-cat_print