Jerome Powell 講話重點：
“If you look at P/Es they’re historically high, but in a world where the risk-free rate is going to be low for a sustained period, the equity premium, which is really the reward you get for taking equity risk, would be what you’d look at,”
“Admittedly P/Es are high but that’s maybe not as relevant in a world where we think the 10-year Treasury is going to be lower than it’s been historically from a return perspective,”
"Your interest payments are low. Defaults and downgrades have declined since earlier in the year."
"Asset prices are a little high in that metric in my view, but overall you have a mixed picture. You don't have a lot of red flags on that."
- 單看 P/E 確實在歷史高點，但在一個無風險利率要維持低檔的一段時間的世界裡，你現在看到的東西就叫風險溢酬。
- 十年期國債收益在歷史低點，高 P/E 現象可能不太重要。
- 違約和降評都比今年稍早來得少。
- 資產價格偏高，信號混雜，並沒有太多危險訊號。
小評：認同全球最大莊家的看法，現在的高資產價格是來自於寬鬆政策熱錢擁簇的自然現象。目前就算美股各種表現，也多半集中於中小型類股這種就算後來集體吃土，也不會對大盤造成什麼致命傷害的群體。而大權值股如尖牙，其實在過去的幾個月是處在盤整的狀態。也就是說一季以前你可能覺得疫情後的反彈讓蘋果、亞馬遜、微軟、網飛、谷歌等大權值變得很貴，但他們價格鎖在這裡一季了，隨著成績開出來還是成長，反而現在變得較便宜了。
再來用 P/E 當成關鍵指標其實在科技股飛天的時代我覺得沒有太大的意義，因為一大堆沒有 E (earnings)。甚至現在用 P/S 都難以去定義一些個股，自從 ZM 和 SNOW 這種暴力成長股把 P/S 也玩壞掉了。價值來自於市場的共識，反正嫌貴就別買保安康，機會永遠有。
一直罵科技股炒作，可是就是一直漲又奈他何？如果很怕科技股的，你大可以去挑價值型 ETF 如 VTV、VBR，沒有什麼絕對對錯反正都是來賺錢的。
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