double q評價的八卦，DCARD、PTT、MOBILE01、YOUTUBE和Yahoo名人娛樂都在討論

◤草本泥膜第一品牌🌿ORENZI歐倫琪◢
年前養膚補貨團🎁 #分享抽(共6名)🌷#下單禮 ＃全館9折 #滿額3重送(累贈) #滿6,000再抽3,000購物金1名💰💰

首先，我要先跟一位80多歲的阿嬤說『對不起！』，原本定期開團的超威泥膜團，因為真的太忙，這次晚了快2個月。這位阿嬤她在朋友給試用組後，很明顯看到效果，一直在等我開團........讓老人家枯等很過意不去，因此特別跟老闆同學凹了這次買6,000元才有加贈的「泥膜3入軟管組」補償阿嬤，想要的人除了買起來外，🌍 公開分享留言也有機會獲得喔！

下單連結： https://pse.is/3bc52x
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❤️ 品牌故事時間┃堅持天然，源自於老婆需求！

會研發全系列以「🌿100%天然草本植萃🌿」為訴求，主要是同學太太本身罕見疾病「纖維肌肉痛」患者，發作時除全身痛到無法行走，也間接導致皮膚敏感，完全無法使用任何市售「含酒精 ❌」等化工原成份的產品。

因此源自於自身需求，他們家泥膜未添加膠體、乳化劑，成分單純為植萃、純水、高嶺土與礦泥土，溫和不刺激，使用到眼周都ok，每天使用還可溫和去角質。

因此，幾年前便開始自行研發，採用的各種植物或中藥材，則來自世界各地搜羅品質最佳，適合用來製作保養品的，像八月份時因疫情嚴峻，一向採購自歐洲的原物料就受到大幅影響，甚至還找到東歐去！

為確保製程能符合品牌高標準，去年中同學還跟我小....吐了苦水，砸幾千萬在新店園區內開工廠，一切都要自己掌控，就是這樣的經營態度，造就短短這一兩年在網路爆紅！

同學家的泥膜因為天然親膚，甚至孕婦（可敷肚皮保濕不乾癢）、小朋友都能使用（建議小孩一次10分鐘即可）

以上已跨國經營，歐倫琪的好，歡迎大家隨便google都可找到超多五星評價，囤貨回購更是家常便飯，也是第一個只要三個月快到，我就會開始收到鐵粉敲碗的品牌唷！

🔥 新同學┃#歐倫琪泥膜家族入手爬文懶人包！
Bella儂儂報導 ➤https://reurl.cc/d0yREz
官方粉專使用者口碑分享 ➤ https://reurl.cc/g76V7L
用泥常見Q&A ➤ https://reurl.cc/NjlzLQ
官網7大泥膜家族介紹 ➤ https://reurl.cc/nzvWAl

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🔥【7款明星泥膜這樣用！】
新手入門第一罐泥膜，「#美白泥膜」莫屬👑 !!!!!
因此，無論你是什麼膚質？或當前膚況如何？Step 1請先用「美白泥膜」進行『#養膚』，中西方藥草為配方的美白泥膜，可調理肌膚過於敏弱的基礎，增強肌膚抵禦力、提升代謝後，再同步其他功能泥膜做加強，效果會更明顯。

✓ 保濕：乾燥肌膚適用

✓ 緊緻＆毛孔隱形：晨起易水腫體質，建議使用緊緻。兩款均對毛孔收斂有幫助。緊緻能收斂因肌膚鬆弛造成的毛孔粗大；而毛孔隱形則是收斂因油脂堆積造成的毛孔粗大。

✓ 粉刺＆痘痘：這兩款主針對粉刺和痘痘問題者。粉刺幫助白頭粉刺代謝。痘痘則主針對閉鎖粉刺與協助悶痘冒出。好姐妹和粉絲都有來報，用過就回不去了！

✓ 黑美白：極端油性肌膚的大油肌就靠它！若你只是T字部位出油，美白即可改善，不需使用到黑美白會過度刺激。

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👩‍🏫 #泥膜急救站🏥┃冷到爆⛄️，臉皮薄乾燥機如何修復？
今年特別冷，若你也是一吹到冷風就很容易凍傷，雙頰紅通通的乾燥肌，建議可以用「#double夾心法」來為肌膚急救，作法如下：
（1）先敷上美白or保濕泥膜，接著在泥膜外敷上面膜
（2）約40分鐘後，洗掉泥膜，擦上一層稍厚乳霜（我自己用VaniCream的），再次敷上面膜。

次日就可以很快感受到肌膚刺痛狀況，獲得顯著緩解，有和我一樣困擾的今天就試試看！

＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿
▍🧧過年養膚泥膜補貨團🧧 ▍：1/22~1/31，全館限時9折
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
🌈 專屬下單區➝ https://pse.is/3bc52x
❶重送：下單禮！買就送🧽潔顏球乙顆（價值180，務必定期換新，隨機不挑色）
❷重送：滿$3,500元，免運+贈歐倫琪草本護手霜30ml
❸重送：滿$4,500元，#買不到の 燕窩精華液15ml
❹重送：滿$6,000元，美白、痘痘、保濕75ml泥膜軟管各乙支
（💥💥 以上滿額採「累贈」就是單筆訂單結帳買6,001元，❶❷❸❹重送贈品全部帶回家，超海派我喜歡！）

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🌈 分享留言抽好禮┃1/31截止
⓵ 本po文按讚，公開分享到你的FB牆上寫下『歐倫琪草本泥膜真的很好用耶！』記得設定公開🌍，否則抽獎機器人抓不到你資料喔。
⓶ 留言寫下你最需要哪一款泥膜？（可參考上面介紹）
⓷ 以上遊戲規則缺一不可，請特別留意。2/5原地開獎。

🏆 #榮獲二次Bella推薦MIT保養品牌
👍 #Dcard狂推好物
🙇🏻‍♀️ #知名網美跪求開團
#用心寵愛泥 #歐倫琪 #草本泥膜
🌿 歐倫琪草本保養/Orenzi Herbal Skincare 🌿

［簡明股票分析: 662 陳智思，94億Book，市值就45億］

（要睇圖就上medium了）

Quite simply，今次冇玩嘢，個題就係what you get。陳智思檔嘢，亞洲金融（662 HK）。呢間公司係佢家族生意，陳弼臣陳有慶家族，泰國華僑。陳弼氏就泰國出世，但個仔陳有慶好似係潮洲出世，陳智思就香港出世，但所以仲有個泰文名 Charnwut Sophonpanich。而662係乜？66唔係地鐵，係泰國嘅dial code．2從何來？正係曼谷。冇人話我知，我亂估的，但應該冇錯。

凡此種種，其實舊post有講過，得閒嘅去慢慢追。（http://bit.ly/2FBd5L5）（ http://bit.ly/2lNtNeV）（http://bit.ly/2lObRkB）

極速sum up就係：662係做金融嘅，以前有銀行，亞洲商業銀行，賣咗畀馬拉佬，就係你而家見到嘅大眾銀行（香港）。662剩返乜？主要係保險。有檔同N咁多人（永亨呀永隆呀創興呀）合營嘅香港人壽，之前賣盤，後來撻Q殺訂。另外佢地仲有一般保險，車保勞保之類。加上泰國有間醫院有股份（medical tourism嘛，食住海南雞割包皮又爽又平啲），係咁多。盤谷銀行都係佢地家族嘢，但唔關662事，倒係盤谷銀行其實係662小股東。

關於陳智思本人任你演繹，始終係建制一部份，你要媽嘅實大把嘢媽。但當年傳佢選特首，而家應該難過何志平做特首。而佢在公在私都多次講唔想做銀行唔想做金融，但奈何係祖業。此外我當年做耆英證券分析員都有睇呢隻嘢，耐唔耐搵下佢傾計，有問必答。你會話係佢工作，係，但我閒日在旺角見到佢佢都好主動同我打招呼。你話係做戲，咁佢都做得好全套。講咁多，總之，我信佢唔會出你古惑。就算古惑都唔會畀其他人古惑。

前事講完，正題，昨日出咗業績。唔係有人講我都冇留意，畢竟隻嘢市值又細，成交又少，冇乜分析員睇。而家公司又多，傳媒都未必會去。新聞有報已經幾難得。（http://bit.ly/2FDe25o）

你見到嘅新聞，就應該會係咁。利潤跌46％，派息都減一大截。點解？都話呢間係金融公司，主要係保險。保險公司拎你啲錢係去投資的 ．舊年咁市況，所有投資都食蕉，包括畢菲特嘅巴郡。

所以你話股價會大跌（寫時係半夜），我唔多信。要明白係跌一早跌咗，因為人人都知舊年股市好差，當時所有啲保險證券股就已經插晒，唔使等今日開牌先知：嘩原來舊年投資環境好差噃咁（咁當然，都有蝕得多同少嘅分別）。正如港交所啲業績冇乜好評，因為日日幾多成交大家有眼睇，你成交一差股價即插—甚至係預計成交會變差已經即插啦。

講返份業績，我覺得幾靚仔喎，甚至覺得幾抵買。當然抵買同會升係兩回事，會升同你應該買又係兩回事。本人冇持有，亦冇任何直接間接利益。都係嗰句，贏錢係你叻，輸錢係你自己揀，冇人拎支槍要你買。

先講盤數。都唔使咩專家都睇到，正係因為投資輸錢累到賺少好多啦，舊年4億8，今年2億6。姑且唔好理咩叫非控股股東權益，總之唔關你事。

但其實個業績遠差於此，見唔見有舊8億嘅 "公平價值變動" ？呢舊嘢就係啲跌咗但未賣嘅東西，係咪「一日唔賣一日都唔係蝕」就觀點與角度，但至少呢舊嘢唔影響盈利（否則你仲邊有2億幾純利？）—不過，呢舊嘢正路係會直接在你個Book度消失咗的！即係點？即係股東冇輸錢，但有舊錢唔見咗—咪即係輸錢咯！一般保險公司都會見到有呢啲情況，所以冇乜人會睇個純利。

戲肉嚟啦喎。你見到，個股東權益（我間住咗嗰度），居然係冇跌到，仲要多咗好多喎，搞乜？明明話有8億要扣嘛。我就當你唔使扣都好，你都係賺2億啫，邊度得嚟由80億book value 變做94億？

個答案，真係比較深。你鍾意可以去份業績慢慢lun（http://bit.ly/2Fw6W2F）。簡單答案就係：第一，咪話賣香港人壽賣唔成，殺訂嘛。但殺訂都係執億幾啫。關鍵就係會計處理，入帳方法唔同咗，就忽然變咗啲嘢出嚟。第二，都係會計東西，唔係佢地獨有，剛剛有啲會計政策變更，詳情不多講，悶死你，但你見其他金融公司都有。但其實上次中期業績都見，唔係全新。

總之，我關心嘅只係一樣嘢。間公司就94億book value，市值就只係45億（自己睇股票機）。如果per share呢？公司9.73億股，寫到明。94億除9.73，每個帳面值就係$9.6左右。股價？而家$4.6（順手你可以乘返9.73億股就知市值係45億）。大折讓噃。
當然啦，唔好天真到咁。大折讓嘅嘢往往係有原因。但662係金融股，亦唔係銀行，本book上面主要都係金融資產，股票債券，而絶大多數係每半年計一次價。照計唔會話同真實價值爭好遠。唔同話拎住啲廠房機器唔知乜嘅工業股。

但，你會話，合和呢？係喎，冇耐前先寫過合和。一樣大折讓到極。一樣話埋你知值68蚊但你都要40蚊投降畀佢。（http://bit.ly/2Fv9ONg）
好，兩個睇法。首先，我當你同合和一樣（地仆街），68蚊嘢40蚊畀返佢，咁隻662都要上到去$5.6，升多兩成先。

第二，我始終相信陳智思唔係胡應湘。唔止係我主觀評價，或其他人嘅評價。你睇公司往績都睇到。事實662從來冇出過咩大問題，雷曼爆煲佢當然都重創，輸咗8億咁滯。但都只係受創，唔係傷元氣更加冇生死存亡嘅問題。而10年後book value 已經一個double．

而最重要嘅係，講多無謂，科水最實際。貼多次畀你睇，見唔見公司嘅股數少咗？因乜？回購咯。都買咗0.5%股本，唔算少了

更正嘅係，啲回購好多都係現股價($4.6)樓上做嘅。有啲天真，但你可以憧憬下，５蚊公司都肯回購啦，大有可能而家繼續。

最後，呢期興咩FinTech InsurTech Proptech，公司都有呢啲新聞（http://bit.ly/2FBVrqF）。我唔會抱咩好大期望，但得個知字。最後賣盤畀大陸佬亦唔係出奇。

懶計數，但即使未計賣盤私有化之類，我理解呢，過去咁多年，你買呢隻嘢，應該多數時間都係跑贏恒指嘅。當然，成交係心乜，同埋悶到你抽筋，就係一個問題了．亦當然，過去表現不代表將來，羅素隻雞畀人劏之前都係好幸福的

🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers