accounting中文的八卦，YOUTUBE和Yahoo名人娛樂都在討論

振興券辯論之一

我「沒頭沒臉」，想和柯文哲辯論振興券有沒有效，大概也被當成「沒唸書」。我雖然不學無術，但經濟學文獻，肯定是比柯文哲懂的，為正視聽，讓我自己進行一場單人紙上辯論，解釋為什麼「三倍振興券」很好。

問：馬政府2008年發消費券，民進黨砲轟沒效。蔡英文換了位子，就換了腦袋，馬英九不行，為什麼自己發振興券就可以？

答：如果振興券和消費券長得一樣，那民進黨當然該受批評，不長進只能拾人牙慧，還抄一個「失敗」的政策，該罵。但消費券和振興券不一樣，時空不一樣，政策內容也不一樣，根本不該混為一談。一個治病的藥，吃的劑量不一樣，吃的時程不一樣，甚至是診斷的症狀不一樣，都會有不同的結果。同樣是政府發錢，發法不一樣，效果當然可能不一樣。人民真正該害怕的，不是政治人物換了位子就換了腦袋，而是不會從過往失敗裡學習，從中尋找改進之道。民進黨政府的振興券，就著過往問題，提出新的解決方案，全球獨到，先不管成效，在政策制定上，就已經是進步了。反觀國民黨，不但沒有從消費券的問題裡學習，反而加碼過去的錯誤，還主張發現金，沒有進步的國民黨，輸了一褲子，都換了位子，還不換腦袋，才令人害怕。

問：所以振興券如何解決替代效應問題？和消費券，或是現金有什麼不一樣？

答：這樣的問題，就比較有水準了。發錢無用論的理論來源，是傅利曼大師的Permanent Income Hypothesis(PIH)，主要就是說，人在決定消費行為的時候，會把一生的所得拿來一併考量，盡量讓收入和支出，以一個平穩的方式進行，不要一年吃飽飽，隔一年餓肚子。在這樣理性的考量下，突來的現金補貼收入，不會被當成是一筆天外飛來的財富，非花掉不可，而是存起來，提高未來整體的消費水準。如果人人都照PIH來思考，政府發的錢，就會被存起來，而沒有刺激景氣的效果。

小布希政府在2009年，金融風暴時發的一戶800美元現金，果如PIH預測一樣，消費幾乎沒有因為收入增加而提升。人民前途茫茫，工作都不知道有沒有得保，錢不存起來，還買新手機嗎？馬政府的消費券，在設計上比現金好，至少強迫要拿出來用，但因為消費品項沒有限制，民眾把它拿來買平常會買的東西，反而把平常的花費存起來。這個替代效應，據估算超過九成，消費券幾乎完全被當成現金補貼了。

但唐鳳設計的振興券，不但消費品項有限制，已經先部份擋住了替代效應，要民眾拿一千出來換三千之舉，更是逼迫消費的絕妙好技。這之中至少牽涉到兩個行為經濟學的改變行為效應。第一種叫Mental accounting(腦內會計，和House effect賭場效應類似)，逢年過節有小賭一下的民眾，大概都知道，同樣的一百元、一千元，平常可以拿來吃東西、買東西，很珍惜，但一旦上了牌桌，錢好像就不是錢，人的腦子，會自動把錢分類，而低估了牌桌上的錢的價值。拿了一千換來的三千，多的兩千，好像是撿來的錢，「隨便花」，應該是不少人會有想法。當然，柯文哲這麼理性，這麼異於常人，當然不承認有這種效應存在。

另外的一個行為經濟學效應，叫framing(框架效應，這裡的中文，都是我亂翻的，我們這些沒唸書的，只會看英文文獻，還請有唸書的大德，指教一下)。同樣是政府花兩千，兩千直接打到你戶頭，和拿一千換三千，那是不一樣的感覺。消費券會被當成現金存起來，振興券卻會被當成百貨公司的禮券花掉，差別就在於這個「拿一千出來」的動作。當然，買東西都是佩琪在買，與實體經濟活動脫節的柯文哲，完全沒有辦法想像這些「非理性」行為，自然認為是無效的。

振興券的新花招，讓好多商家，平白多出許多的點子，來配合促銷，這也是消費券看不到的額外效應。柯文哲本來不也打算加碼？現在又罵無效。位子沒換，腦袋一直換，到底要聽哪一個柯文哲講話？

問：廢話那麼多，到底振興券會增加多少GDP？

答：總經政策沒辦法實驗，只能用模型推估。馬政府估算的2008消費券，大概增加了0.5%的GDP。模型參數不同，結果就會不同。但從上面的分析來看，振興券的效果一定會比消費券好。而且現在的經濟情勢，遠比2008年那種不知未來的情況好。世界雖然因為武漢肺炎停擺，但現在已經逐漸恢復。而台灣不但安全，還一直吸納出走中國的製造業商機，真正受疫情傷害的，就是缺乏國際觀光客的國內消費，振興券打蛇打七寸，刺激景氣效果當然超過無差別打水漂的消費券。

如果最後的經費支出類似消費券，也許可以達到1%的效果。在全世界一片景氣低迷的時候，可以用相對輕鬆的手法，製造出1%的GDP成長，那是很好的事。當然這些數字都是推估，最後2020年台灣的經濟指數，多少是來自振興券，沒有人可以說得準。

羅斯福總統在一九三零年代，面對經濟大蕭條，採取了許多前史未見的新政策，統稱「新政」。這些政策，很多最後證明都是垃圾，但經濟學家不管立場與背景，都同意一點，羅斯福的政府不因為政策的失敗，就停手不進行新政策的嚐試。一個政府面對困境，要發想解決方法，研究可行方案，不斷努力，不斷嚐試，才能帶給人民希望，不是事情不如己願，就怪東怪西，在民主社會還嫌棄民眾水準不夠，對，就是在說你，柯文哲。振興券有這麼多的好處，但最大的好處，是這個政府，沒有陷入「無招」的困境，反而用創意，帶給人民希望，配合世界一流的防疫政策，台灣人民相信國家會向上，有希望的人民，才會放膽消費，這才是該給振興券拍拍手的真正理由。

問：這麼好用，年年來發振興券？

答：我第一個拍手叫好。如果你以為傅利曼了解人性，所以有PIH，所以一定反對政府發錢，那你就錯了。發振興券，是實質減稅，傅利曼說，「任何」的減稅都是好的，因為減少政府可用資源，才是削減政府規模的長久之道。政府永遠在變大，如果不讓這怪獸餓一下，不可能縮小。如果政府年年發振興券，要籌措財源，就要減少支出，那當然是好事。

但又要馬兒好，又要馬兒不吃草的柯文哲，坐擁台北大金庫，不用管撙節支出，才會隨便加碼振興券。但你要中央政府年年發振興券，是要砍哪一個部門的預算？少撥一點給你蓋社會住宅，還是鄉下地方不要蓋捷運，又或者是把國防部預算砍多一點，讓敵人輕鬆一點攻台？

非常時期，用非常手段，那是當家的人，得想辦法的不得已。年年發振興券，很好，但先把要砍的預算，列出來，好好吵一吵。沒頭沒臉的經濟學家，樂見其成。

(後面還有幾個自辯自答，待續，也歡迎讀者朋友留言提問，一併回答)

最近，我在「TIME時代」雜志的專欄文章裡，向全球的讀者介紹了大陸「世界工廠」的+AI自動化升級。隨著勞動力成本的上漲，工業自動化、智慧化勢必是大陸製造業的一劑特效藥。自動化能讓運營成本下降，但仍能讓中國大陸保持生產品質、流程、供應鏈維度的優勢。AI賦能產業升級的願景或許還需多年才能實現，但當下的大陸已經讓未來可期。

以下是專欄文章全文，經TIME授權翻譯轉載：

「中國世界工廠 + AI 的未來」

多年來，中國大陸一直被喻為「世界工廠」，即便在全球其他經濟體紛紛遭遇新冠疫情重擊的2020年，大陸製造產業仍然維持穩健的增長范式，全年產值高達3.854萬億美元，占到全球市場近三分之一。

但如果你腦中的大陸工廠是傳統的「血汗工廠」，是時候修正你的刻板印象了。大陸經濟已經迅速地從疫情衝擊下復蘇，疫情同時催化了各種各樣人工智慧（AI）的應用場景加速實現。自2014年以來，中國大陸的AI專利申請量已經超越美國，至今維持全球領先。在學術領域，中國大陸的AI研究論文發表數量、AI期刊的引用量，也雙雙在近年超過了美國。在產業方面，AI應用在大陸的落地速度超越世界其他國家和地區，具有商業價值的AI應用如今開始百花齊放，整合了軟體、硬體和機器人技術的新一代自動化揭開序曲，AI賦能傳統行業的能量，正在蓄勢待發地重塑各行各業。

人類社會至今經歷了三次不同的工業革命：蒸汽革命、電力革命和資訊革命。我相信，AI將會是推動全球第四次工業革命的核心引擎，在世界各地點燃數位化和自動化的變革，而這波前所未有的硬科技浪潮，將由中國來引領實踐。

由於勞動人口減少和新增人口放緩，中國大陸的傳統產業正面臨著勞動力成本上升的巨大壓力，AI正是解決這個難題的技術解答。人工智慧不僅能夠降低運營成本，提高生產效率，擴大整體產能，還有望能帶來收入的增長。

例如，創新工場投資的廣州極飛科技是一家致力於未來農業的AI科技公司，極飛將無人機、機器人和感測器部署在稻田、麥田和棉花田裡，用技術賦能農業中的播種、農藥噴灑、栽種管理、甚至天氣監測環節。用於作物噴灑的極飛科技R150農業無人車已經被推廣到了英國，應用在蘋果、草莓、黑莓等多種經濟作物的種植流程中。

一些大陸的創新公司正積極把機器人拓展到意想不到的場景。總部位於北京的鎂伽是創新工場投資的生命科學智慧自動化公司，他們和實驗室、製藥公司、高校合作，憑藉AI+機器人技術的積累，用自動化解決方案執行實驗室中勞動密集、重複性高、但需要高度精確的任務和流程，同時機器人作業也將盡最大可能保護實驗室人員降低實驗過程中的感染風險。

除了創業公司，我們看到幾家成熟的龍頭企業也開始積極擁抱AI。創新工場參與了有28年歷史的中力電動叉車，這家頭部的鋰電叉車製造商已經推出了能夠在工廠、倉庫自主運行的無人叉車，並且無需對運行環境進行改造，能快速實現從手動到電動到自動駕駛的搬運賦能創新。此外，擁有50多年歷史的領先客車製造商-宇通集團，與自動駕駛獨角獸企業-文遠知行戰略合作，已在大陸三個城市的馬路上運行全無人駕駛小巴。

接著會發生什麼？我大膽預見，在更長遠的未來，機器人和AI將接管大多數產品的製造、設計、交付甚至營銷——很可能將生產成本降低到和原物料成本相差無幾。未來的機器人有能力自我複製和自我修復，甚至做到部分自我反覆運算設計。房屋和公寓將交由AI主導設計，使用預製建築模塊，交由機器人像搭積木似地築樓蓋房。無人公交、無人摩托等隨傳隨到的自動化未來交通系統，能將我們安全無虞地送達想去的地方。

這些願景成為現實或許還需要多年，但此時的大陸正在積極鋪墊引領新一代自動化革命的基石。可期的是，中國工廠的實力將不僅僅體現在產能上，而將逐步彰顯在智慧上。

本文經「TIME時代」授權進行中文編譯，原文如下：

China Is Still the World's Factory — And It's Designing the Future With AI

BY KAI-FU LEE

For many years now, China has been the world’s factory. Even in 2020, as other economies struggled with the effects of the pandemic, China’s manufacturing output was $3.854 trillion, up from the previous year, accounting for nearly a third of the global market.

But if you are still thinking of China’s factories as sweatshops, it’s probably time to change your perception. The Chinese economic recovery from its short-lived pandemic blip has been boosted by its world-beating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). After overtaking the U.S. in 2014, China now has a significant lead over the rest of the world in AI patent applications. In academia, China recently surpassed the U.S. in the number of both AI research publications and journal citations. Commercial applications are flourishing: a new wave of automation and AI infusion is crashing across a swath of sectors, combining software, hardware and robotics.

As a society, we have experienced three distinct industrial revolutions: steam power, electricity and information technology. I believe AI is the engine fueling the fourth industrial revolution globally, digitizing and automating everywhere. China is at the forefront in manifesting this unprecedented change.

Chinese traditional industries are confronting rising labor costs thanks to a declining working population and slowing population growth. The answer is AI, which reduces operational costs, enhances efficiency and productivity, and generates revenue growth.

For example, Guangzhou-based agricultural-technology company XAG, a Sinovation Ventures portfolio company, is sending drones, robots and sensors to rice, wheat and cotton fields, automating seeding, pesticide spraying, crop development and weather monitoring. XAG’s R150 autonomous vehicle, which sprays crops, has recently been deployed in the U.K. to be used on apples, strawberries and blackberries.

Some companies are rolling out robots in new and unexpected sectors. MegaRobo, a Beijing-based life-science automation company also backed by Sinovation Ventures, designs AI and robots to safely perform repetitive and precise laboratory work in universities, pharmaceutical companies and more, reducing to zero the infection risk to lab workers.

It’s not just startups; established market leaders are also leaning into AI. EP Equipment, a manufacturer of lithium-powered warehouse forklifts founded in Hangzhou 28 years ago, has with Sinovation Ventures’ backing launched autonomous models that are able to maneuver themselves in factories and on warehouse floors. Additionally Yutong Group, a leading bus manufacturer with over 50 years’ history, already has a driverless Mini Robobus on the streets of three cities in partnership with autonomous vehicle unicorn WeRide.

Where is all this headed? I can foresee a time when robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, design, delivery and even marketing of most goods—potentially reducing costs to a small increment over the cost of materials. Robots will become self-replicating, self-repairing and even partially self-designing. Houses and apartment buildings will be designed by AI and use prefabricated modules that robots put together like toy blocks. And just-in-time autonomous public transportation, from robo-buses to robo-scooters, will take us anywhere we want to go.

It will be years before these visions of the future enter the mainstream. But China is laying the groundwork right now, setting itself up to be a leader not only in how much it manufactures, but also in how intelligently it does it.

Source：https://time.com/6084158/china-ai-factory-future/

【#拜登就職演說全文】★中英版本★
資料來源：美國白宮新聞稿
This is America’s day. This is democracy’s day.

A day of history and hope. Of renewal and resolve.

Through a crucible for the ages America has been tested anew and America has risen to the challenge.

Today, we celebrate the triumph not of a candidate, but of a cause, the cause of democracy.

The will of the people has been heard and the will of the people has been heeded.

We have learned again that democracy is precious.

Democracy is fragile.

And at this hour, my friends, democracy has prevailed.

So now, on this hallowed ground where just days ago violence sought to shake this Capitol’s very foundation, we come together as one nation, under God, indivisible, to carry out the peaceful transfer of power as we have for more than two centuries.

We look ahead in our uniquely American way – restless, bold, optimistic – and set our sights on the nation we know we can be and we must be.

I thank my predecessors of both parties for their presence here.

I thank them from the bottom of my heart.

You know the resilience of our Constitution and the strength of our nation.

As does President Carter, who I spoke to last night but who cannot be with us today, but whom we salute for his lifetime of service.

I have just taken the sacred oath each of these patriots took — an oath first sworn by George Washington.

But the American story depends not on any one of us, not on some of us, but on all of us.

On “We the People” who seek a more perfect Union.

This is a great nation and we are a good people.

Over the centuries through storm and strife, in peace and in war, we have come so far. But we still have far to go.

We will press forward with speed and urgency, for we have much to do in this winter of peril and possibility.

Much to repair.

Much to restore.

Much to heal.

Much to build.

And much to gain.

Few periods in our nation’s history have been more challenging or difficult than the one we’re in now.

A once-in-a-century virus silently stalks the country.

It’s taken as many lives in one year as America lost in all of World War II.

Millions of jobs have been lost.

Hundreds of thousands of businesses closed.

A cry for racial justice some 400 years in the making moves us. The dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer.

A cry for survival comes from the planet itself. A cry that can’t be any more desperate or any more clear.

And now, a rise in political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism that we must confront and we will defeat.

To overcome these challenges – to restore the soul and to secure the future of America – requires more than words.

It requires that most elusive of things in a democracy:

Unity.

Unity.

In another January in Washington, on New Year’s Day 1863, Abraham Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclamation.

When he put pen to paper, the President said, “If my name ever goes down into history it will be for this act and my whole soul is in it.”

My whole soul is in it.

Today, on this January day, my whole soul is in this:

Bringing America together.

Uniting our people.

And uniting our nation.

I ask every American to join me in this cause.

Uniting to fight the common foes we face:

Anger, resentment, hatred.

Extremism, lawlessness, violence.

Disease, joblessness, hopelessness.

With unity we can do great things. Important things.

We can right wrongs.

We can put people to work in good jobs.

We can teach our children in safe schools.

We can overcome this deadly virus.

We can reward work, rebuild the middle class, and make health care
secure for all.

We can deliver racial justice.

We can make America, once again, the leading force for good in the world.

I know speaking of unity can sound to some like a foolish fantasy.

I know the forces that divide us are deep and they are real.

But I also know they are not new.

Our history has been a constant struggle between the American ideal that we are all created equal and the harsh, ugly reality that racism, nativism, fear, and demonization have long torn us apart.

The battle is perennial.

Victory is never assured.

Through the Civil War, the Great Depression, World War, 9/11, through struggle, sacrifice, and setbacks, our “better angels” have always prevailed.

In each of these moments, enough of us came together to carry all of us forward.

And, we can do so now.

History, faith, and reason show the way, the way of unity.

We can see each other not as adversaries but as neighbors.

We can treat each other with dignity and respect.

We can join forces, stop the shouting, and lower the temperature.

For without unity, there is no peace, only bitterness and fury.

No progress, only exhausting outrage.

No nation, only a state of chaos.

This is our historic moment of crisis and challenge, and unity is the path forward.

And, we must meet this moment as the United States of America.

If we do that, I guarantee you, we will not fail.

We have never, ever, ever failed in America when we have acted together.

And so today, at this time and in this place, let us start afresh.

All of us.

Let us listen to one another.

Hear one another.
See one another.

Show respect to one another.

Politics need not be a raging fire destroying everything in its path.

Every disagreement doesn’t have to be a cause for total war.

And, we must reject a culture in which facts themselves are manipulated and even manufactured.

My fellow Americans, we have to be different than this.

America has to be better than this.

And, I believe America is better than this.

Just look around.

Here we stand, in the shadow of a Capitol dome that was completed amid the Civil War, when the Union itself hung in the balance.

Yet we endured and we prevailed.

Here we stand looking out to the great Mall where Dr. King spoke of his dream.

Here we stand, where 108 years ago at another inaugural, thousands of protestors tried to block brave women from marching for the right to vote.

Today, we mark the swearing-in of the first woman in American history elected to national office – Vice President Kamala Harris.

Don’t tell me things can’t change.

Here we stand across the Potomac from Arlington National Cemetery, where heroes who gave the last full measure of devotion rest in eternal peace.

And here we stand, just days after a riotous mob thought they could use violence to silence the will of the people, to stop the work of our democracy, and to drive us from this sacred ground.

That did not happen.

It will never happen.

Not today.

Not tomorrow.

Not ever.

To all those who supported our campaign I am humbled by the faith you have placed in us.

To all those who did not support us, let me say this: Hear me out as we move forward. Take a measure of me and my heart.

And if you still disagree, so be it.

That’s democracy. That’s America. The right to dissent peaceably, within the guardrails of our Republic, is perhaps our nation’s greatest strength.

Yet hear me clearly: Disagreement must not lead to disunion.

And I pledge this to you: I will be a President for all Americans.

I will fight as hard for those who did not support me as for those who did.

Many centuries ago, Saint Augustine, a saint of my church, wrote that a people was a multitude defined by the common objects of their love.

What are the common objects we love that define us as Americans?

I think I know.

Opportunity.

Security.

Liberty.

Dignity.

Respect.

Honor.

And, yes, the truth.

Recent weeks and months have taught us a painful lesson.

There is truth and there are lies.

Lies told for power and for profit.

And each of us has a duty and responsibility, as citizens, as Americans, and especially as leaders – leaders who have pledged to honor our Constitution and protect our nation — to defend the truth and to defeat the lies.

I understand that many Americans view the future with some fear and trepidation.

I understand they worry about their jobs, about taking care of their families, about what comes next.

I get it.

But the answer is not to turn inward, to retreat into competing factions, distrusting those who don’t look like you do, or worship the way you do, or don’t get their news from the same sources you do.

We must end this uncivil war that pits red against blue, rural versus urban, conservative versus liberal.

We can do this if we open our souls instead of hardening our hearts.

If we show a little tolerance and humility.

If we’re willing to stand in the other person’s shoes just for a moment.
Because here is the thing about life: There is no accounting for what fate will deal you.

There are some days when we need a hand.

There are other days when we’re called on to lend one.

That is how we must be with one another.

And, if we are this way, our country will be stronger, more prosperous, more ready for the future.

My fellow Americans, in the work ahead of us, we will need each other.

We will need all our strength to persevere through this dark winter.

We are entering what may well be the toughest and deadliest period of the virus.

We must set aside the politics and finally face this pandemic as one nation.

I promise you this: as the Bible says weeping may endure for a night but joy cometh in the morning.

We will get through this, together

The world is watching today.

So here is my message to those beyond our borders: America has been tested and we have come out stronger for it.

We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again.

Not to meet yesterday’s challenges, but today’s and tomorrow’s.

We will lead not merely by the example of our power but by the power of our example.

We will be a strong and trusted partner for peace, progress, and security.

We have been through so much in this nation.

And, in my first act as President, I would like to ask you to join me in a moment of silent prayer to remember all those we lost this past year to the pandemic.

To those 400,000 fellow Americans – mothers and fathers, husbands and wives, sons and daughters, friends, neighbors, and co-workers.

We will honor them by becoming the people and nation we know we can and should be.

Let us say a silent prayer for those who lost their lives, for those they left behind, and for our country.

Amen.

This is a time of testing.

We face an attack on democracy and on truth.

A raging virus.

Growing inequity.

The sting of systemic racism.

A climate in crisis.

America’s role in the world.

Any one of these would be enough to challenge us in profound ways.

But the fact is we face them all at once, presenting this nation with the gravest of responsibilities.

Now we must step up.

All of us.

It is a time for boldness, for there is so much to do.

And, this is certain.

We will be judged, you and I, for how we resolve the cascading crises of our era.

Will we rise to the occasion?

Will we master this rare and difficult hour?

Will we meet our obligations and pass along a new and better world for our children?

I believe we must and I believe we will.

And when we do, we will write the next chapter in the American story.

It’s a story that might sound something like a song that means a lot to me.

It’s called “American Anthem” and there is one verse stands out for me:

“The work and prayers
of centuries have brought us to this day
What shall be our legacy?
What will our children say?…
Let me know in my heart
When my days are through
America
America
I gave my best to you.”

Let us add our own work and prayers to the unfolding story of our nation.

If we do this then when our days are through our children and our children’s children will say of us they gave their best.

They did their duty.

They healed a broken land.
My fellow Americans, I close today where I began, with a sacred oath.

Before God and all of you I give you my word.

I will always level with you.

I will defend the Constitution.

I will defend our democracy.

I will defend America.

I will give my all in your service thinking not of power, but of possibilities.

Not of personal interest, but of the public good.

And together, we shall write an American story of hope, not fear.

Of unity, not division.

Of light, not darkness.

An American story of decency and dignity.

Of love and of healing.

Of greatness and of goodness.

May this be the story that guides us.

The story that inspires us.

The story that tells ages yet to come that we answered the call of history.

We met the moment.

That democracy and hope, truth and justice, did not die on our watch but thrived.

That our America secured liberty at home and stood once again as a beacon to the world.

That is what we owe our forebearers, one another, and generations to follow.

So, with purpose and resolve we turn to the tasks of our time.

Sustained by faith.

Driven by conviction.

And, devoted to one another and to this country we love with all our hearts.

May God bless America and may God protect our troops.

Thank you, America.
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★ 中文翻譯：資料來源中央社CNA

這是美國的一天，這是民主的一天，是歷史和希望的一天，是更新與決心的一天。美國幾個世代經過熔爐的考驗之後，如今再次遭到試煉，而且已再次奮起應付挑戰。今天，我們慶祝的不是一位候選人的勝利，而是一個奮鬥目標的勝利，是為民主的奮鬥。人民的意志被聽見了，人民的意志得到了關注。

我們再次學到，民主是珍貴的，民主是脆弱的，而在此刻，朋友們，民主已然勝利。短短幾天之前，還有暴力試圖撼動國會的根基，但今天我們齊聚這個莊嚴的所在，以一個在上帝之下不可分裂的國家，展開權力的和平轉移，一如我國200多年的傳統。

我們要用美國特有的方式，也就是不停歇、勇敢、樂觀的方式展望未來。放眼我們可以成為、也必須成為的國家。我謝謝今天蒞臨的兩黨前任總統，我衷心感謝，你們知道我國憲法的韌性，以及我們國家的力量。卡特總統（Jimmy Carter）也是，我昨晚與他通了電話，但他不克前來。我們為他畢生的奉獻向他致敬。

我剛才跟這幾位愛國者一樣鄭重宣誓，一篇最初由華盛頓宣讀的誓詞。然而，美國故事靠的不是我們任何一個人，或一部分人，而是我們全體。它靠的是「我們人民」，在尋求一個更好的合眾國的人民。這是個偉大的國家，我們是一群良善的人。

經歷過去幾個世紀的風雨和衝突、和平與戰爭，我們走過很長一段路，但前方還有很長一段路要走。我們將快速緊急前行，因為在這個危險與機會的冬天，我們有很多事要做。有很多需要修補、需要恢復、需要癒合。有許多需要建設，也可以有很多收穫。

在我國歷史上，很少人或很少時刻面臨著比我們目前更大的挑戰或困難。百年一見、無聲無息蔓延整個國家的病毒，在一年之內奪走的人命，跟美國在第二次世界大戰犧牲的總人數一樣多。數百萬工作機會流失，成千上萬企業關門。

400年來的種族正義的呼聲感動著我們，全民同享公義的夢想將不再拖後。地球生存的呼聲再急迫不過，也再清楚不過。如今政治極端主義、白人至上主義和本土恐怖主義的興起，讓我們有必要起來面對並將它們擊倒。

克服這些挑戰、恢復美國靈魂和鞏固未來需要的不只是話語，而是民主當中最難以捉摸的部分，那就是團結一心，團結一心。

另一個一月天，在1863年開年之時，林肯總統簽署解放奴隸宣言。讓我引述他在下筆時所說的話：「如果我留名青史，將會是因為這份宣言，以及我投注其中的全心全意。」

今天，同樣在一月裡，我全心全意投注於此：團結全體國人，團結整個國家。我請求所有美國人加入，和我一起努力，團結對抗我們共同的敵人：怨氣、不滿、仇恨、極端主義、目無法紀的行為、暴力、疾病、失業和無助。

團結一心，我們能夠成就偉大事業、重要的事情。我們可以糾正錯誤，可以讓民眾找到好的工作，可以在安全的校園教導孩子，可以克服這個致命的病毒。我們可以讓工作獲得報酬，重建中產階級，可以提供全民健保，可以兌現種族正義，讓美國再次成為世界主要的良善力量。

我明白，這個時候談論團結聽起來像愚昧的天方夜譚，我知道分裂我們的力量又深又真切，但我也知道這些力量不是現在才出現。美國向來在人人平等這個理想，和國家長期被種族主義、本土主義、恐懼和妖魔化分化的醜陋現實之間掙扎。這個征戰從未止息，勝利並無保證。

從南北戰爭、大蕭條、世界大戰到911恐攻，儘管歷經奮鬥、犧牲和挫折，良善的天使向來都會勝利。每當遇到這種時刻，我們都會有足夠的人團結一心，讓全國一起向前，我們現在也可以這麼做。

歷史、信仰和理性指向一條明路，一條團結之路。我們可以不把彼此當成敵人，而是鄰居。我們可以尊嚴和尊重彼此相待，可以同心協力，停止叫囂，讓溫度冷卻。因為沒有團結就沒有和平，只會留下苦毒與憤怒；不會有進步，只會有讓人厭倦的離譜言行；不會有國家，只會有混亂狀態。

這是我們危機和挑戰的歷史性一刻，而團結是前進的道路，我們必須以合眾國的姿態來面對這一刻，若能做到，我向諸位保證我們不會失敗。當我們團結起來，我們從來就不曾失敗，因此在這一天，在此時此刻，就在這裡，讓我們重新來過，全體一起來。讓我們開始再次彼此聆聽，讓對方說，相互探望，對彼表達尊重。

政治不必像這一團熊熊之火，燒毀一切，歧見不必成為全面戰爭的理由。我們必須摒棄操弄甚至捏造事實的文化，同胞們，我們不能這樣，美國必須不只是這個樣子，而且我相信美國不至淪落至此。

看看四周，我們站在國會大廈圓頂之下，這是南北戰爭時期完成的，當時美國的前途還在未定之天，但我們挺過來了，我們勝利了。我們現在站在此，看著偉大的國家廣場，金恩博士（Martin Luther King Jr.）曾對廣場上的群眾訴說他的夢想。也是在這裡，108年前的另一場就職典禮，數以千計的抗議人士試圖阻撓一群勇敢的婦女遊行爭取投票權。

今天我們見證副總統賀錦麗創造美國歷史，成為第一位擔任國家領導人的女性，別告訴我事情無法改變。

我們站在這裡，隔著波多馬克河（Potomac River）遠眺阿靈頓國家公墓（Arlington National Cemetery），也就是為國捐軀的英雄長眠之地。我們站在這裡，不過幾天前，暴動的群眾以為他們可用暴力箝制民眾的意志，阻撓民主運作，把我們驅逐出這塊聖地。但事情未如他們所願，今天不會，明天也不會，永遠都不會。

每位支持我們參選的民眾，我因你們給予我們的信心感到謙卑。對於沒有支持我們的人，讓我對你們說：未來請聽我說的話，評量我和我的心。如果你們還是不同意，也罷。這就是民主。這就是美國。以平和的方式在我們國家的規範之內表達異議的權利，可能是我國最大的優勢。

但請聽清楚：不同意見絕對不能變成不團結。而且我向各位保證，我要當全體國人的總統。不論你支持我或不支持我，我都將同樣為你們而努力。

好幾個世紀之前，我所屬教會的聖者聖奧古斯丁（Saint Augustine）曾經寫道，人民是個群體，由他們共同喜愛的東西所定義。身為美國人，我們共同喜愛而且能定義我們的東西是什麼？我想我們都知道：機會、安定、自由、尊嚴、尊重、榮譽，是的，還有真相。

最近的幾個星期、幾個月給了我們痛苦的教訓：有真相，也有謊言，為了權力和利益而說的謊言。我們每個人做為公民，做為美國人，特別是身為領導者的人，曾經承諾要遵守憲法、保護我們的國家的領導者，有職責、有責任要捍衛真相、打敗謊言。

我瞭解有許多同胞以害怕、惶恐的心情看待未來。我瞭解他們擔心工作問題。我瞭解他們像我父親那樣，夜裡躺在床上盯著天花板，想著得要有醫療保險、有貸款要付、想著他們的家庭，想著接下來會如何。我跟各位保證，我瞭解。但答案不是退縮，不是進入到彼此競爭的派系，不信任看起來跟你不一樣的人，跟你有不同信仰的人，或者新聞來源不同於你的人。

我們必須結束這場「無禮的戰爭」，它讓紅藍對立、鄉村與都市的民眾對立、保守派與自由派對立。我們可以做到，如果我們敞開心胸，而不是讓我們的心變硬，如果我們展現一些包容和謙虛，如果我們願意為別人設想，就像我母親說的：只要一下子就好，為別人設想。

因為人生就是這樣，你無法預知命運。有些時候，你會需要別人伸出援手，還有些時候，人家會請你伸出援手。就是要這樣，這就是我們為彼此做的事。如果我們這麼做，我們的國家就會更強大、更繁榮，更能為未來做好準備，而且我們還是可以有不同意見。

同胞們，我們在推動未來的工作時，會需要彼此。我們要集舉國之力，才能度過這個黑暗的冬天。我們可能在進入疫情最嚴重、最致命的階段。我們必須把政治擺在一邊，要終於能夠舉國對抗這個大流行，用舉國之力。我向各位保證，就如聖經所說：「一宿雖有哭泣，早晨便必歡呼。」我們將可一起度過，一起！

各位，我跟我在參眾兩院的同事們都瞭解，世人正在觀看，他們今天在看著我們，因此這是我要對國外傳達的訊息：美國受到試煉，而我們因此更為茁壯。我們將修補我們與盟國的關係，再次與世界往來，不是為了面對昨天的挑戰，而是今天和明天的挑戰。我們將不是藉著我們力量的典範來領導，而是憑藉我們典範的力量。我們將會是和平、進步與安定堅強而且可信賴的夥伴。

各位都知道，我們國家經歷了許多事情。我做為總統要做的第一件事，是要請你們跟我一起，為過去一年因疫情喪生的人們默禱，紀念那40萬個同胞，母親、父親、丈夫、妻子、兒子、女兒、朋友、鄰居和同事們。我們要成為我們自知可以成為、而且應該成為的人民和國家，以此榮耀他們。因此我請大家，一起為離世和失去親友的人們，還有我們的國家默禱，……阿們。

各位，這是試煉的時刻。我們面對對民主與真相的攻擊、正在肆虐的病毒、嚴重的不公、系統性的種族歧視、陷入危機的氣候，還有美國在全球的角色問題。其中任何一點都足以對我們構成嚴重的挑戰。但事實是，我們在同時面對這一切，這讓美國挑起我們最重大的責任之一。我們將受到試煉，我們能迎接挑戰嗎？這是大膽的時候，因為有好多事情要做。

而我向各位保證，這點是肯定的：你我將被評判，標準是我們如何解決這個時代一一發生的危機。我們將迎接挑戰。我們能否戰勝這個罕見而艱難的時刻？我們能否履行我們的義務，把一個新的、更好的世界傳給我們的下一代？我相信我們必須那麼做，而且我相信你們也這麼認為。我相信我們會，而且當我們做到，我們將寫下美國歷史偉大的新章節。美國的故事。

這個故事可能像一首對我來說深具意義的歌曲，它叫「美國頌」（American Anthem），它有一段歌詞至少對我來說很特別，它是這樣說的：「數百年的努力與祈禱讓我們來到今天，我們有什麼能傳承下去？我們的子孫會怎麼說？當我的日子結束，讓我內心知曉，美國，美國，我已為你付出最大努力。」

讓我們把我們自己的努力和祈禱，加到我們偉大的國家仍在發展的故事之中。如果我們做到，那麼當我們的日子結束，我們的子孫和他們的子孫會說：「他們付出了最大的努力，他們盡了他們的責任，他們修補了破碎的國家。」

同胞們，我的結語要跟開頭一樣，有個神聖的誓言。在上帝和各位面前，我向你們保證。我將始終開誠布公，我將捍衛憲法，我將捍衛我們的民主。我將捍衛美國，全心全力奉獻為你們服務，心中想的不是權力，而是可能性，不是私利，而是公眾的利益。我們將一起寫下美國希望的故事，而非恐懼的故事，是團結而非分歧，是光明而非黑暗。是禮貌與尊嚴、愛與療癒、偉大與善良的故事。

希望這是引導我們的故事、啟發我們的故事，是能告訴未來的世世代代我們回應歷史的召喚並且回應了時代挑戰的故事。民主與希望、真相與公義沒有在我們的時代衰亡，而是生生不息，美國固守了國內的自由，並且再次成為世界的明燈。這是我們對先人、對彼此和對未來世世代代的責任。

因此，我們要有目標、有決心，把注意力轉向這個時代的任務，靠信心來維持，靠信念來驅使，為彼此和我們全心熱愛的國家而奉獻。願上帝保佑美國，保守我們的三軍。謝謝美國！

劉纓維在服務業中的服務業麥當當服務了十年，受夠了鬼島環境之後決心北漂社畜之國日本。

服務業是指利用設備、工具、場所、信息或技能等為社會提供勞務、服務的業務。我國的服務業，按照國民經濟部門分類，是指第三產業中的一部分，它包括飲食、住宿、旅游、倉儲、寄存、租賃、廣告、各種代理服務、提供勞務、理髮、照相、浴池以及各類技術服務、咨詢服務等業務。
服務業的徵稅範圍包括：代理業、旅店業、飲食業、旅游業、倉儲業、租賃業、廣告業、其他服務業。
說起來，設計從業是不是也算一種服務業呢？

離島人想要知道劉纓維，在台灣的服務業和在日本的第一線服務業到底差在哪裡？而在這些日子中、又有什麼支持著她獨自在異國的生活？島上的職場差在哪裡呢？

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A podcast platform, shares experiences of those who are offshore.

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