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ลองเข้าไปติดตามภาคภาษาอังกฤษได้ที่นี่นะครับ
Thaksin Shinawatra in Private Discussion
World Policy Institute Global Leader Briefing Series Thinking Points
World Policy Institute, 9th March 2016, New York
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Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,
I must thank you World Policy Institute for providing me an opportunity to share my thought on the challenges that revolve around the economic, regional and global implications of how Thailand will make its way through a period of transition and change.
We all know that no society in the twenty-first century can sustain any form of “progress” in the well-being of its people without at least two basic foundations:
The first one is political stability. The second one is the ability to create economic activities that allow growth and readiness to shift its creativities to sustain wealth.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the tale of the two cities, which is not written by Charles Dickens. It is the tale of parallel progress of Washington D.C. and Beijing. Each has its own history, pain and loathing. As the years go by, the two cities have been seen as rivals which offers competing models for growth and prosperity.
One is Free Market-Capitalism with the so-called “Open Democracy” as the foundation of its economic model. The other one is State-Led Capitalism with the central control system by one party.
Both of the models have proven to be successful in a very dramatic way from the past to the present. Admitting that the Chinese model was fitting to the change of attitude among the leadership of the country at that time, in parallel with the change of economic model in the West, in which the definition of “free trade” benefits China’s shifting position from a close market to a semi-open market.
But we must admit also that both models are now having to adjust itself to the new reality; the reality of dramatic change in speed and character of technology for industrial production; the change from “a country-based product” to “network of global design, global sourcing,and global production for just one product”. This extraordinary change upends the “normal” internal economic adjustment of the country and made it very difficult to find a simple economic adjustment.
We must recognize that advancement in the wealth management technique and technology also upend the normal linkage between capital and changes in production. However, we probably agree, that one common threat for survival in this present so-called “New Normal” is either you have the ability and willingness to change or you don’t. Thailand, like the other countries, cannot get away from this New Normal in the international context.
Ladies and Gentleman,
There is a tale of a poor English teacher in China who soared to the list of the world’s wealthiest people. He neither built a big factory nor invested in any production facility. But, people paid for his service simply to reach the network of supply and demand on a grand scale. I believe, he must feel thank you to the internet.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Amid the global economic slowdown, the pattern of trade has significantly changed. Due to the development of information technology infrastructure and increasing number of population who is able to access to the internet, e-commerce has become a new engine that sustains growth for both developed and developing economies. According to UNCTAD’s report last year, the value of global business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce in 2013 exceeded $15 trillion USD. While global business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce still accounted for an estimated $1.2 trillion USD, this segment has grown at a rapid pace; especially in the Asia and Oceania region where B2C segment is expected to surge from 20 to 37 percent between 2013 to 2018. Due to the incremental growth of cross-border e-commerce trade, international postal deliveries of small packets and parcels have risen by 48 percent between 2011 to 2014 globally.
For both Asia and the West, I believe these numbers provide us with clues for the new growth opportunities where “access to networks” is the key: meaning, the networks of consumers and factors of production across geographical boundaries. Unlike the economy of twentieth century when “access to centers” is the rules of the game, today, businessmen who do not have big factories and are not the owners of multinational corporations, can manage to reach and satisfy the needs of their customers worldwide through networks of production and distribution with an assist of the new communication technology. Today’s economy is increasingly decentralized. Consumption and production are more and more dispersed. We could imagine that an American producers can sell their products online directly to consumers in the western part of China without having to spend business hours in Beijing or Shanghai. Vice versa, a Chinese producer can bypass New York to offer their products to customers in New England and Mid-Atlantic states. The network economy has provided the people, both in small and large businesses, with the ability to produce and access to consumers at lower costs. We, as a global community, must put special emphasis on how each country can invest and share risk with the people to create growth collectively.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Another tale is about the rebirth of a road that nobody cares since the Portuguese discovered a possible sea route from Europe to Asia. The Portuguese did offer an alternative trade route with substantial margins for the goods carried. Although you might lose half of the cargoes on the way, you still did not lose your shirt. Since the demand for spices were overwhelming, the merchant marines heavily charge everybody.
Ladies and Gentleman,
The heavy-load transport through the sea has been with us till now, and the land routes from Asia to Europe have been neglected. If the world’s economy is thriving like the good old days, probably, not so many people would be interested in finding an alternative in life. But, since the situation goes awry, I believe, any country should consider all possibilities.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Today, there are two major initiatives that, I think, have great potential to accelerate growth and leverage “quality of growth” that brought into being by the emergence of network economy. One is the China-led “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) plan to develop transport and logistics connectivity encompassed some 60 countries, which include about 50 percent of the world’s GDP. And, the other is the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) between 12 Pacific Rim countries, which account for more than 40 percent of the world’s GDP. I have not seen these two initiatives as antagonistic, but rather a kind of two parallel processes that, at a certain point, will create mutual economic benefits for Asia and the West.
We must overcome the stereotype that perceive China and the US as merely the two opposing political superpowers. In reality, the economic development during the past decade has shown us how far these two major economies are interdependent. China is the largest foreign holder of US government securities with $1.24 trillion USD worth. With the total trade volume of $521 billion USD in 2014, the US is China’s biggest trade partner. Total US foreign direct investment (FDI) in China stood at $65.77 billion USD at the end of 2014, while the Chinese FDI in the US is estimated to have reach $11.9 billion USD.
Given this interdependence in mind, I believe Southeast Asia- the region that sits in between the two great initiatives of the two major economies- must put special emphasis on how to enhance the mutual economic benefits with its counterparts. For Southeast Asia in the twenty-first century, the geopolitics should be about how to reinforce the networks of wealth creation for the people that stretch across national and regional borders.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the last tale about a Thai restaurant. No matter how many times the master chef tries to teach his protege, the young man keeps making mistakes in mixing the ingredients. Customers are kept waiting, hungry and mad. Once the customers are served, half of them get diarrhea afterward. The moral of this tale is one must make the written recipe right.
Ladies and gentlemen,
While some people may underline the unique characteristics of Thailand in terms of its history and developmental path, the country itself cannot avoid to come to terms with the global challenges of the twenty-first century. For half a century, the Thai economy has incrementally integrated into global economy. Values of Thailand’s exports per GDP and FDI in the country have shown us clearly how far the growth of Thai economy has been interwoven with the fate of global economy.
Against this context, we shall consider Thailand’s draft constitution with a very simple question: will the latest draft constitution “enable” the country to grow and become stronger in the present world? Or, will the latest draft constitution provide Thailand with a sufficient institutional infrastructure for investment, production, cooperation, and businesses?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Due to the framework set out by the latest draft constitution, it is difficult to foresee a government that is responsive to the people and the challenges of the twenty-first century. According to the new draft, the 200-seat upper house, or Senate, will be appointed by the so-called “experts”. The Senate will also have greater powers to block legislation. Regarding the Constitutional Court, its scope of jurisdiction will be expanded. The Court will have the power to examine cases based on petitions filed directly by individuals, without the requirement that an actual dispute being brought by political organs or other courts.
If we consider the doctrine of separation of powers as the foundation for growth and stability, the critical issue that we shall examine is whether the judicial power will trespass the provinces of legislature/ and executive or not? For a government to be able to manage the economy against the global slowdown, I do hope that there will be no over-enforcement of the judicial power. Experiences of several countries show us that, if unchecked, judicial review can be inappropriately used as “delaying tactic”; thus, in turn, become an impediment to economic policy implementation.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I believe that the foundation for the country to create growth and prosperity is to build trust in the global community. The constitution shall protect the rule of law and provide at least a minimum level of freedom of speech that facilitates economic cooperation between the people and the global community. Trade and investment cannot flourish if there is no certain degree of confidence provided by the rule of law. Against the transition and change, Thailand must reevaluate its strength and weakness. The country shall find a sensible way to regain its political stability and economic dynamism. I have only proposed the way of how should we think of the phenomena that is the world today.
《蓄水即聚財》
Storing Water Is Akin To Accumulating Wealth
(English version below)
堪輿一道，非常重視納水，而所納的水，一定要是吉水。若所納的水，是破局水，即凶水也，災殃也就隨後而至。但願同好者，在替人點地時，多加謹慎為好。有人說，山管丁，水管財。其實這是不一定的，山也可以管財，水也可以管丁。水是環抱著山的，水是隨著山宛延而行的，有山一定有水，有水一定有山，此為陰陽二氣。有山無水謂為假龍，蓋人體若無血液，人無法活也。
山川的大智慧，本就博大精深。那些不用腦筋、不下苦工的人，一輩子就甭想學會堪輿學。正所謂：能看的就看門道，不能看的就看熱鬧。前些日子，就有位「入世已深」，又「俗理俗氣」的姊兒，撥電給吾，「指示」吾多寫一些，簡單易懂的文章，如：應該買何種名牌、女性的眉形應該是何種較佳，等等。吾聽後笑呵呵的對她說，世上有用腦筋，及不用腦筋的人。因此，吾的文章實不能偏重一方。吾，玳瑚師父由衷的祝福她，腦筋早日「操作正常」，以免日後成為其親生子女的笑柄。
「山水」，不是只在深山綠林中才有。它其實在妳你家中，亦可有之。吾相信，所有內行人，絕對曉得吾這句話之含意。亡者的家叫陰宅，生者的家叫陽宅。無論陰宅或陽宅，都要求丁財富貴、功名仕途。陰宅風水在深山綠林中，山和水隨處皆有。但陽宅風水，就得靠真功夫的巧設了。他日因緣成熟時，再配合妳你的誠意邀請，妳你風水上的「愁雲」，將由吾來幫妳你「拂去」。
財為養命之物，但千萬不可將之私藏。 反而應該慷慨解囊，以免下一代或孫輩中，會出現敗家子，那就富不過一代或兩代囉！很多人都忽略家中，衛生間水桶裡的水。告訴妳你，這桶水就是妳你朝思暮想的財啊！每天臨睡前，記得到衛生間，檢察一下水桶裏的水，是否有蓄滿八分，這是玳瑚師父再賜福給妳你，要知道蓄水即聚財。
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In the field of geomancy, great importance is placed on the ability to harness the energy of water. The water harnessed must be of auspicious nature. If the water energy harnessed is damaged, that is inauspicious and disasters would follow. I hope fellow practitioners would be extra cautious, when doing site selection for their clients. People says that the mountains govern the descendants while the water holds the key to wealth. Fact is, this is not absolute. Mountains can also govern the wealth, while water can also influence the descendants. Water always surrounds the mountain, and travels along the mountain valleys. There is always water in the presence of mountain, and vice versa. This is know as the dual energies of Yin and Yang. If there is a mountain but no water, it is a false dragon. A simple analogy: if a human body has no blood circulation, there can be no life in the man.
The mountains and rivers offer great wisdom that is both broad and profound. For those who are not willing to use their brains and work their socks off, they can forget about learning the art of geomancy in this lifetime. As the Chinese saying goes, "The adept recognizes the artistry, the layman simply enjoys the show.". Recently, a lady who is very "worldly" and deeply-seated in this secular world, rang me to "instruct" me to write more articles that could be comprehended easily. She suggested topics like what luxury brands should a person purchase, what is the best shape of eyebrows for the women, etc. I responded with a slight laugh, and told her that there are two kinds of people in this world - those who use their brains, and those who do not. Therefore, my articles cannot just appeal to one kind. I sincerely wishes her to regain "normal functions" of the brain, so that she would not become the laughing stock of her own children in the future.
Mountains and streams do not just exist in the deep mountains and green forests. In fact, you will find them in your own home. I believe my counterparts would absolutely understand the meaning behind my words. The home of the deceased is known as the Yin house. The home of the living is known as the Yang house. Regardless of their nature, they both hope for descendants, wealth, fortune, high positions in the career and social standings. The mountains and waters are everywhere in the deep forest to locate a good spot for Yin residence. However, when it comes to the Yang residence, you will need real prowess to do ingenious formation. When the affinity is ripe one day, and upon your sincere invitation, I shall help you to sweep away the "gloomy clouds" of bad Feng Shui in your house.
Wealth is a mean of life preservation, but you must not hoard it for your own selfish gains. You should be generous with your wealth to help others, and prevent the sorry fate of having a wastrel and prodigal in your children or grandchildren, or your wealth will be squandered away within the next generation or two! Many people neglect that bucket of water in their bathrooms. Let me tell you this: that pail of water holds the key to the wealth, which you have been dreaming of! Make this a ritual: Everyday before you go to bed, please check if the bucket in your bathroom is filled with water, at least to the 80% mark. This is the blessing Master Dai Hu bestows upon you again, for you must know the storing of water signifies wealth accumulation.
www.masterdaihu.com/storing-water-is-akin-to-accumulating-wealth/
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