Reddit 上網友整理的 Michael Burry 預測以及後續反應,註解得很不錯。
"The stock market rewards predictions disproportionately [3]. Out of the 100 predictions you make, even if you get 99 wrong but get one extremely unlikely event right your overall returns will still be extremely high.
市場對於預測市場的獎勵不合比例,100 個預測中猜錯 99 個,但猜對 1 個極低機率的事件,你的報酬還是可以很高。"
Burry 撈到次貸風暴,雖然過程中蹲了幾年;而塔雷伯也是撈大魚這樣一波退休的,沒記錯的話是深度價外 EURUSD 選擇權。
但換句話說,我們都知道市場兩三年一修正、再多個幾年一大崩,然後還有過程中的各種起伏。試圖去猜崩盤就像是那句老梗:「人終究一死」沒錯,但問題是「死在哪,以及什麼時候會死」。
時間點是最困難預期的,也沒必要預期。若很怕,就握著一些現金,或是學塔雷伯弄個槓鈴策略,但如此一來就要承擔付出保費而讓整體配置持續扣血的結果,也未必可以用得好(看看那些 tailhedge fund 的績效)。
而死在哪(哪個族群、哪個市場)倒也沒有到特別重要,特別是全球股市經濟高度連動狀況下,金融海嘯、歐豬、人民幣危機、肺炎,都是一起躺下去。
Burry 博士最近期還算有見效的看空是說特斯拉會崩,但就我追他 twitter 來看,他是六百元左右宣告他已經開空,後來被一路嘎上九百,即便跌回來六百多,仍舊還沒開始賺錢。且 Put 的到期日不知道選什麼時候,也是有可能吃了滿多龜苓膏的。
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/oawsxf/i_analyzed_last_15_years_of_news_articles_to_see/
同時也有21部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過40萬的網紅我要做富翁,也在其Youtube影片中提到,熊市的確會帶來痛苦,但如果我們做對決定,把握熊市隨時是我們的翻身機會。在個人投資理財方面,那我們又要準備甚麼,並如何將財富轉移? 本港樓價高企多時,今次美國再減息會是買樓好機會嗎? 4:05 熊市下樓市發展 8:15 不同地區樓市表現 16:53 如何部署?要賣樓嗎? 41:01 虛擬組合 45...
eurusd 在 Forex Miracle Facebook 八卦
เพื่อนเทรดเดอร์ใจดีท่านหนึ่ง โพสต์อธิบายเรื่องการตั้งค่าของ EA MDP-Plus มาให้แบบละเอียดเลยครับ จะได้รู้ว่า บรรทัดไหน คือค่าอะไรครับ
NDDmode = For brokers that don't accept SL and TP to be sent at the same time as the order
Show_Debug = Print huge log files with info, only for debugging purposes
Verbose = Additional information printed in the chart
TradeALLCurrencyPairs = If set to TRUE it weill trade on all pairs automatically, otherwise only on the chart pair
Commission = Some broker accounts charge commission in USD per 1.0 lot. Commission in points
UseDynamicVolatilityLimit = Calculate VolatilityLimit based on INT (spread * VolatilityMultiplier)
VolatilityMultiplier = Only used if UseDynamicVolatilityLimit is set to TRUE
VolatilityLimit = Only used if UseDynamicVolatilityLimit is set to FALSE
UseVolatilityPercentage = If true, then price must break out more than a specific percentage
ถ้าใช้ volatilitypercentage = volatility / VolatilityLimit
VolatilityPercentageLimit = Percentage of how much iHigh-iLow difference must differ from VolatilityLimit
UseMovingAverage = User two iMA as channel
UseBollingerBands = Use iBands as channel
TakeShots = Save screen shots on STOP orders?
DelayTicks = Delay so many ticks after new bar
ShotsPerBar = How many screen shots per bar
**
allpairs[26] = {"EURUSD","USDJPY","GBPUSD","USDCHF","USDCAD","AUDUSD","NZDUSD","EURJPY","GBPJPY","CHFJPY","CADJPY","AUDJPY","NZDJPY","EURCHF","EURGBP","EURCAD","EURAUD","EURNZD","GBPCHF","GBPAUD","GBPCAD","GBPNZD","AUDCHF","AUDCAD","AUDNZD","NZDCHF","NZDCAD","CADCHF"};
volatility = iHigh – iLow @M1
ถ้า (Bid < lowest) แล้ว (Bid - ilow > 0.0) เข้า BUY/ BUYSTOP
ถ้า (Bid > highest) แล้ว (ihigh - Bid < 0.0) เข้า sell/ SELLSTOP
Lowest และ highest ก็มาจากเส้น MA และหรือ BollingerBands ที่เลือกใช้
Calculate the highest and lowest values depending on which indicators to be used
MA หา highest/ lowest ใช้ @M1,period=3, MA shiftหรือline offset =0, MODE LWMA, PRICE LOWและHi, shift=0) และต้อง Bid >= malow + madiff / 2.0
BollingerBands หา highest/ lowest ใช้ @M1, period=3, Deviation=xx, bands_shift =0, PRICE_OPEN, MODE UPPER/ LOWER, shift=0) และต้อง Bid >= bandslower + ibandsdiff / 2.0
isbidgreaterthanima = Bid >= MA low + ความต่าง Hi/Low / 2.0
ถ้าเลือกใช้ทั้ง MA และ BollingerBands ค่าไหนสูงสุดใช้ค่านั้น
highest = MathMax(ibandsupper, imahigh)
lowest = MathMin(ibandslower, imalow)
eurusd 在 tivo168 的投資理財EXCEL應用教學 Facebook 八卦
近期主要匯率樂活五線譜觀察,供大家參考。
#樂活五線譜
#USD
#USDCNY
#USDJPY
#USDTWD
#EURUSD
#CNYTWD
#資料來源:自建資料庫
eurusd 在 我要做富翁 Youtube 的評價
熊市的確會帶來痛苦,但如果我們做對決定,把握熊市隨時是我們的翻身機會。在個人投資理財方面,那我們又要準備甚麼,並如何將財富轉移? 本港樓價高企多時,今次美國再減息會是買樓好機會嗎?
4:05 熊市下樓市發展
8:15 不同地區樓市表現
16:53 如何部署?要賣樓嗎?
41:01 虛擬組合
45:03 SPX
46:03 HSI
49:48 CORNUSD 粟米商品
51:16 EURUSD 歐羅
52:25 GILD 吉利德
54:36 GOOGL
55:48 XAUUSD 黃金
58:20 USOIL 石油
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eurusd 在 Rayner Teo Youtube 的評價
www.tradingwithrayner.com
This week I share with you how I made over 13R on my EURUSD trade by simply trading what I see!
Thanks for watching!
FOLLOW ME AT:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/forextradingwithrayner
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/rayner_teo
My YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/tradingwithrayner
eurusd 在 Rayner Teo Youtube 的評價
Hey hey, what’s up my friend!
I’ve received an interesting comment and here’s what it said…
“Up to 40% in a year in Forex? Many people do that in less than 3 months.”
So, what are your thoughts on this?
Yes it’s possible?
No it’s not?
Well, I took this statement and put it to the test in today's video.
You’ll learn:
• Is it possible to make 40% in less than 3 months?
• Who are the richest men in the world right now and are they any traders on the list?
• The best trading opportunities in the markets this week and how you can profit from it
• A possible breakdown in this commodity and how you can “get a piece of the pie” before it’s too late
Are you EXCITED to start your trading week?
Then go watch this week’s market analysis now.
If you want more actionable trading tips and strategies, go to https://www.tradingwithrayner.com
Thanks for watching!
FOLLOW ME AT:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/forextradingwithrayner
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/rayner_teo
My YouTube channel: http://bit.ly/2EFg5VN
eurusd 在 How to trade the EUR/USD: Tips & Trading Strategies - YouTube 的八卦
If the EUR/USD exchange rate equals 1.12565 for instance what does that mean? Noteworthy some Economic ... ... <看更多>