天氣和氣候是不大相同的意涵
常常有朋友會問我,例如 7/31號,那天溫度會幾度? 會有颱風來嗎?
當然簡單回答是,幾天內很清楚,超過一周就有點變動度,兩三周以上就要看氣候特性,可以看統計值....
每天著重在短期天氣預測的朋友,常常也會無法忍受氣候的預測,那麼多不確定的事情,你怎麼能預測出來? 例如梅雨入梅或出梅時間, 或是全球暖化下的氣候變遷,你連明天哪裡下雨下多少都搞不清楚,怎麼有能力來和我們說什麼時候出梅? 2100年地球會怎樣?
這就如同我們每天生活,有時候會有小感冒,中期遇到新冠疫情,長期要是不運動,身體會逐漸變差,當然可以預期到會遇到那些問題,現在從各種大數據,都可以知道發生的『機會』。
機會如同一個風險值,在平均值的較高或較低,都有其應對的方式,當然和每天的變化不同,使用者在使用上都必須去了解,最好不要用自己的習慣印記來否決新的預測方式。
這幾年東協國家成立一個氣候展望論壇 ASEANCOF ,定期對東亞各國的氣候提出預測展望,真的是一個很有意義的服務,東亞國家相互影響,也是台灣的鄰居,我們每天市場的食物,不少已經不是本地產,全球化時代很多已經是鄰國所取代,甚至台灣經濟成長的奇蹟,也都是東南亞朋友離鄉背井來台灣幫忙,我們有必要多一點了解。
http://asmc.asean.org/events-sixteenth-session-of-the-asean-climate-outlook-forum-aseancof-16/
climate outlook 在 氣象達人彭啟明 Facebook 八卦
下半年的全球糧價... 蠢蠢欲動!
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasters expect drought to persist in May for nearly all of the ongoing drought areas of the West. Drought improvement or removal is most likely for the Midwest, Nebraska, eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and northeast Texas in May. More info...
U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/…/expert_a…/mdo_discussion.html
U.S. Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Narrative.aspx
climate outlook 在 大便妹,學環保。 Facebook 八卦
🚩極端天氣帶來的暴風雨間接害死了海豚
一篇看了讓我覺得心裡很不舒服的報導
近年極端天氣帶來的暴雨令海水的鹽度下降
令住在沿海的海豚感染致命性的皮膚病
由2005年起相繼出現死亡個案T^T難過
這都是跟氣候變遷有關
這都是跟我們的生活有關
在這些事上我覺得非常無能為力
沒辦法讓海洋生物有一個好的棲息地
減碳這件事真的很不容易
我們都一起一直的步向滅亡
//The study, published in Scientific Reports, a peer-reviewed natural sciences journal, provides the first-ever case definition for fresh-water skin disease in bottlenose dolphins.
This study comes on the heels of significant outbreaks in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas and Australia in recent years. In all of these locations, a sudden and drastic decrease in salinity in the waters was the common factor. Coastal dolphins are accustomed to seasonal changes in salinity levels in their marine habitat, but they do not live in freshwater. The increasing severity and frequency of storm events like hurricanes and cyclones, particularly if they are preceded by drought conditions, are dumping unusual volumes of rain that turn coastal waters to freshwater. Freshwater conditions can persist for months, particularly after intense storms such as hurricanes Harvey and Katrina. With the increasing climate temperatures, climate scientists have predicted extreme storms like these will occur more frequently and, consequently, will result in more frequent and severe disease outbreaks in dolphins.
“This devastating skin disease has been killing dolphins since Hurricane Katrina, and we’re pleased to finally define the problem,” said Duignan. “With a record hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico this year and more intense storm systems worldwide due to climate change, we can absolutely expect to see more of these devastating outbreaks killing dolphins.”
The study has major implications for the current outbreak in Australia, which is impacting the rare and threatened Burrunan dolphin in southeast Australia, and could provide professionals with the information needed to diagnose and treat affected animals. Currently, the long-term outlook for dolphins affected with the skin disease is poor. This is especially true for the animals suffering from prolonged exposure to freshwater.
The deadly skin disease was first noted by researchers on approximately 40 bottlenose dolphins near New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
“As warming ocean temperatures impact marine mammals globally, the findings in this paper will allow better mitigation of the factors that lead disease outbreaks for coastal dolphin communities that are already under threat from habitat loss and degradation,” said Duignan. “This study helps shed light on an ever-growing concern, and we hope it is the first step in mitigating the deadly disease and marshalling the ocean community to further fight climate change.”//
climate outlook 在 NOAA issues its winter climate outlook for 2020-21 - YouTube 的八卦
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