關於Delta - COVID之我見
最近COVID嘅delta strain係世界各地爆到七彩,美國、英國同澳洲都失守,瘋狂社區感染。好多「智者」成日會話疫苗可能有長遠影響而無人知,甚至鼓勵民眾齊齊感染共享肺炎,到底由得COVID爆有咩問題?
Point form
1. 其實好有趣,「智者」們會話無人知疫苗長遠有咩影響,但其實都無人知中完COVID,幸運地康復後長遠有咩重大影響,近排都有唔少研究講long COVID syndrome,係咪真係重感冒咁簡單呢,似乎又唔係。
2. 「智者」們會用最新WHO/CDC/NEJM等嘅研究去講話打完疫苗都係可以照傳染,咁點解要打,仲笑打疫苗嘅人on9承受疫苗風險。的確,疫苗來得太遲,當初對alpha asymptomatic transmission嘅保護力的確相當高,但依加流行緊嘅係delta就變相得返symptomatic disease嘅保護力。即係點?即係可以避免你出現徵狀,但無法避免你傳染俾其他人。
有咩implication?就係如果解封、開關嘅話,打咗疫苗嘅人中招後出現徵狀、要入ICU、要插喉或用呼吸機甚至死亡嘅機會低好多,但無打嘅人就會係Baseline risk。
Delta傳染力特強,唔少國家都似乎打算唔再用以往封城封關封到2046嘅做法,而係盡量幫想打疫苗嘅人打咗先,到之後瘋狂大爆發時,起碼無咁多人要用ICU/呼吸機資源。
3. 瘋狂爆delta有咩問題?就係一些原本諗住淨係俾特定population打嘅疫苗變咗要balance risk and benefit去俾更年輕嘅人打。例如澳洲打AZ由本來限60歲以上就最近降到18歲以上就建議打。
但個問題就出現,AZ或美國J&J Adenovirus vector疫苗有好罕有嘅機會出現VITTS,通常係第一劑嘅4-42日出現,常見於年輕女性。當谷針或市民擔心感染打完AZ後,如果出現頭痛或肚痛咁點算?
無一個醫生會敢寫包單當係vaccine constitutional symptoms,你去睇家庭醫生佢會叫你去急症,你去急症佢會幫你抽Platelet +/- D-dimer +/- fibrinogen。但當個病人好擔心個頭痛或肚痛係因為打疫苗嘅VITTS,有無醫生敢唔做investigation呢?即使目前個rate大約係86/25 million = 0.000344% (Nature and European studies)
0.000344%係咪高?我諗大家中裡有數
但個問題就係,有無人敢孭飛?有無人敢唔驗血就送個病人返屋企?
如是者,每個打完AZ/J&J疫苗嘅病人去醫院,基本上都會抽血,抽完血如果個病人堅持甚至會照CT brain venogram/CTPA/CT venogram/Doppler US等等。
咁代表d咩,代表真係急症嘅病人會因此delay,其他更有需要照CT嘅人又會被delay。
當中用咗幾多醫療資源?就算發達國家都有油盡燈枯嘅一日
4. 醫療資源係有限,由得COVID爆嘅問題就係當資源用盡時,到底救邊個。現代醫療好嘅地方係好多古時會死嘅病,今時今日可以避免到。一個嚴重嘅COVID,及早使用remdesivir, dexamethasone +/- regeneron嘅monoclonal antibodies(有d國家會用Tocilizumab但evidence未太明朗)可以減低重症同死亡率。嚴重時用high flow/NIV/Ventilator又要去ICU 1:1或2:1護士比例去照顧個病人。
我當你1%要ICU support,如果你好似英美咁一日爆幾萬,你每日都會增加幾百個要用ICU資源嘅病人。呢d資源好多時候其他病人,例如COPD exacerbation/renal crisis/trauma/sepsis等等唔少嘅病人都可以靠ICU逃過鬼門關,但如果一路爆,要搶資源時,就要簡人去救。
到底簡邊個去救?邊個但得被救?我地點定義條線?
5. 繼續社區爆發嘅問題係邊?就係好多elective或non urgent嘅治療或手術會被取消。邊d係elective/non urgent?例如激光打腎石、小腸氣、割膽去膽石、前列腺增生、mental health嘅ECT/CBT、allied health嘅rehab/physio/occu/speech等等,下刪幾百種可以改善生活質素嘅手術或治療要被延後。
你可以幻想下一個中完風嘅病人,一般透過physio/occu/speech治療後係可以大大改善生活質素,但因為疫情而無得access呢d服務,甚至可能會miss咗rehab嘅最佳window
呢d全部都要考慮嘅嘢,「智者」們係唔會話你聽,因為佢地無受到呢d嘅影響同時亦唔係醫療嘅service provider,they couldn’t care less about public’s health
6. 醫護人員個個都因為疫情而心力交瘁
照顧每個COVID病人都需要著更多嘅保護衣,花更多嘅時候去做程序,特別係aerosol generating procedures,插完一次喉都定必會成身濕哂。
就算只係簡單嘅打導管同抽血等程序都比以往辛苦同費時。結果就係少咗時間花係其他病人身上。
封城封關封到2046真係會心累,但當社會上充斥著一群反疫苗、反控制疫症、甚至呼籲民眾齊來感染COVID來共享肺炎時,係咪真係幫緊件事?
其實都好明顯見到唔會contain到delta,世界各地嘅做法都開始跟英國,幫哂所有想打疫苗嘅人打之後,就齊齊解封,唔想打嘅人就面對感染同重症甚至死亡嘅風險,informed decision, can’t blame anyone
只不過好多發達國家嘅人都有一股self entitled嘅心,覺得唔打疫苗後中招而重症時,就應份咁享用珍貴嘅醫療資源。
Do you even care how much it costs for the care and treatment of a COVID patient in ICU?
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[時事英文] 各國如何面對新冠疫情?
讓我最有感觸的一句:
"The rise of populism has exacerbated the problem by reducing the incentives of countries to cooperate. "
「民粹主義的興起減少了各國合作的意願,使問題更加嚴重。」
—NY Times
★★★★★★★★
In Frankfurt, the president of the European Central Bank warned that the coronavirus could trigger an economic crash as dire as that of 2008. In Berlin, the German chancellor warned the virus could infect two-thirds of her country’s population. In London, the British prime minister rolled out a nearly $40 billion rescue package to cushion his economy from the shock.
1. trigger an economic crash 引發經濟崩潰
2. dire 嚴重的;危急的
3. roll out 推出
4. rescue package 救助計劃
5. to cushion sth from… 對(某事物的影響或力量)起緩衝作用
在法蘭克福,歐洲央行行長警告說,冠狀病毒可能引發與2008年一樣嚴重的經濟崩潰。在柏林,德國總理警告說,病毒可能導致該國三分之二的人口感染。在倫敦,英國首相推出了將近400億美元的一系列救助計劃,以緩解經濟受到的衝擊。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
As the toll of those afflicted by the virus continued to soar and financial markets from Tokyo to New York continued to swoon, world leaders are finally starting to find their voices about the gravity of what is now officially a pandemic.
6. the toll of… 的傷亡;損失;破壞
7. the death toll 死亡人數
8. afflict 使痛苦;使苦惱;折磨
9. swoon 低迷*
10. find their voices about 願意開口談及
11. the gravity of …的嚴重性
隨著感染者的死亡人數持續飆升,從東京到紐約的金融市場持續低迷,世界各國領導人終於開始談及這場已正式定性為大流行病的疫情的嚴重性。
*http://bit.ly/3b7PZK8
★★★★★★★★★★★★
Yet it remains less a choir than a cacophony — a dissonant babble of politicians all struggling, in their own way, to cope with the manifold challenges posed by the virus, from its crushing burden on hospitals and health care workers to its economic devastation and rising death toll.
12. cacophony 刺耳嘈雜的聲音;雜音
13. a dissonant babble of... 七嘴八舌的...
14. manifold challenges 多種多樣的挑戰
15. economic devastation 經濟崩解
然而,與其說是合唱,這更像一種刺耳的喧囂——一群七嘴八舌的政客用各自的方式努力應對這種病毒所帶來的各種挑戰,從超負荷的醫院和醫護人員到崩潰的經濟和與日俱增的死亡人數。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
The choir also lacks a conductor, a role played through most of the post-World War II era by the United States.
這個合唱團還欠缺指揮,在二戰戰後的大部分時間裡,這個角色是由美國扮演的。
President Trump has failed to work with other leaders to fashion a common response, preferring to promote travel bans and his border wall over the scientific advice of his own medical experts. Mr. Trump’s secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has taken to calling it the “Wuhan virus,” vilifying the country where it originated and complicating efforts to coordinate a global response.
16. lack (v.) 缺少,缺乏*
17. to fashion a common response 形成一致的回應
18. travel ban 旅行禁令
19. take to sth 開始從事;形成…的習慣
20. vilify 詆毀,誣衊;醜化;貶低
21. complicate 使複雜化;使更難懂;使更麻煩
川普總統未能與其他領導人合作形成一致的回應,他寧願推動旅行禁令和他的邊境牆,而不是他自己的醫學專家的科學建議。川普的國務卿邁克·龐皮歐(Mike Pompeo)把它叫做「武漢病毒」,醜化其發源國,使協調全球響應的工作更加艱難。
*lack, lack of, lacking: http://bit.ly/33LrOhw
★★★★★★★★★★★★
週三,川普總統在白宮會見了銀行家,討論如何應對冠狀病毒。
The same denigration of science and urge to block outsiders has characterized leaders from China to Iran, as well as right-wing populists in Europe, which is sowing cynicism and leaving people uncertain of who to believe. Far from trying to stamp out the virus, strongmen like President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia have seized on the upheaval it is causing as cover for steps to consolidate their power.
22. the denigration of science 對科學的詆毀
23. characterize (v.) 是…的特徵;為…所特有
24. right-wing populists 右翼民粹主義者
25. sow a seed of 播下了…的種子
26. cynicism 犬儒主義;憤世嫉俗
27. stamp sth out 消除,消滅
28. upheaval 動盪
29. consolidate their power 鞏固自己的力量
從中國到伊朗的領導人,乃至歐洲的右翼民粹主義者,都有同樣的對科學的詆毀和對外人的排斥,這播下了疑神疑鬼的種子,讓人們不知道該相信誰。俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·V·普丁(Vladimir V. Putin)和沙烏地阿拉伯王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)等強人領袖並沒有去試圖消滅病毒,而是趁機以其引發的動盪為掩護,鞏固自己的力量。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
Yet it is too simple to lay all this at Mr. Trump’s door, or on world leaders collectively. Part of the problem is simply the fiendish nature of the pathogen.
30. lay sth at sb's door 將…歸咎於(某人)
31. fiendish 惡魔般的;殘忍的
32. pathogen 病原體
然而,將一切推到川普身上,或一股腦推到各國領導人身上,都過於簡單了。部分問題實際上源於病原體的殘忍特性。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
Coronavirus has resisted the tools that countries have brought to bear against previous global scourges. Mysterious in its transmission and relentless in its spread, it has led countries to try wildly divergent responses. The lack of common standards on testing, on the cancellation of public gatherings and on quarantines have deepened the anxiety of people and eroded confidence in their leaders.
33. to bear against 抵禦
34. global scourges 全球災禍
35. wildly divergent responses 截然不同的應對方式
36. quarantine 隔離
37. eroded confidence 削弱對…的信心
各國為抵禦先前的全球災禍而使用的工具,被冠狀病毒一一擊敗。詭異的感染方式,持續不懈的傳播,已經導致各國不得不嘗試各種截然不同的應對方式。在病毒測試、取消公共聚會和隔離方法上缺乏一致的標準,這加劇了人們的焦慮,並削弱了他們對領導者的信心。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
The simultaneous shocks to supply and demand — shuttered iPhone factories in China; empty gondolas in Venice; and passengers abandoning cruises, hotels and airlines everywhere else — is a new phenomenon that may not respond to the weapons government wielded against the dislocation that followed the September 2001 terrorist attacks and the financial crisis of 2008.
38. simultaneous shocks 同時衝擊
39. supply and demand 供需
40. the weapons wielded against... 為抵禦...所鍛造的武器
供給和需求在同一時刻受到衝擊——被關閉的中國iPhone工廠;威尼斯空無一人的貢多拉;以及其他地方旅客放棄前往的郵輪、旅館和航班——政府在2001年9月的恐怖襲擊以及2008年金融危機後為抵禦混亂所鍛造的武器,恐怕難以用來對付這種新的現象。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
“The nature of this crisis is qualitatively different than the one in 2008 because the traditional tools are not as effective,” said Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Even if the U.S. took a leadership role, the traditional playbook would not be all that relevant here.”
41. the nature of …的性質
42. be qualitatively different 有本質區別
43. playbook 方案
「這次危機的性質,與2008年危機有本質區別,因為傳統手段的效果不佳,」外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)主席理查德·N·哈斯(Richard N. Haass)說。「即使美國發揮領導作用,傳統方案用在現在的情況沒有多大意義。」
★★★★★★★★★★★★
Britain, for example, won praise for its robust economic response, which, in addition to billions of pounds for hospitals and workers sidelined by illness, included a sharp interest rate cut by the Bank of England.
44. won praise for 贏得讚譽
45. robust economic response 強勁的經濟反應
46. in addition to 此外
47. be sidelined by illness 因疾病而停工
48. a sharp interest rate cut大幅降息
例如,英國因其強勁的經濟應對而贏得讚譽,他們不僅為醫院和因疾病而停工的工人提供了數十億英鎊撥款,還包括英格蘭銀行的大幅降息。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
Yet stocks in London still tumbled, if not as steeply as on Wall Street, where investors brushed off Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s proposal to allow Americans to delay paying their income taxes, which he claimed would pump $200 billion into the economy.
49. tumbled (價值)暴跌,驟降
50. steeply 徒峭地;險峻地
51. brush off 漠視,不理睬
然而,倫敦股市仍然下跌,儘管跌幅不及華爾街。面對財政部長史蒂芬·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)提出的允許美國人緩交所得稅的提議,華爾街投資人不為所動,馬努欽聲稱此舉將為經濟注入2000億美元。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
Mr. Trump’s other big idea, a cut in the payroll tax, was pronounced a “non-starter” by House Democrats, who scrambled instead to introduce legislation to provide financial help to patients, workers and families affected by the fast-moving epidemic and speed it to a House vote on Thursday.
52. payroll tax 薪金稅
53. non-starter 無成功希望的人(或想法、計劃)
54. House Democrats 眾議院民主黨議員
55. scramble to 爭搶(去做)
川普先生的另一個大想法是削減薪金稅,眾議院民主黨議員宣布這「不可能」,他們慌忙提出立法,在財務上幫助受迅速傳播的流行病影響的患者、工人和家庭,並且快速提交至週四的眾議院投票。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
To Mr. Haass, the intense focus on limiting the economic blow was understandable, given the carnage in the markets, but premature. He said countries needed to put their energy into slowing and mitigating the spread of the virus before they embarked on fiscal programs to repair the economic damage.
56. carnage (尤指戰爭中的)大屠殺,殘殺
57. carnage in the markets 市場的慘狀
58. premature 過早的;不成熟的;倉促的
59. mitigate 減緩
60. embarked on sth 開始,著手做(新的或重要的事情)
61. fiscal programs 財政計劃
哈斯認為,考慮到市場的慘狀,集中精力抑制經濟衝擊是可以理解的,但為時過早。他說,各國在開始實施財政計劃以修復經濟損失之前,需要投入精力以減慢並緩和病毒的傳播。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
The trouble is that, with few exceptions, their efforts have been hapless. In the United States, the delay in developing coronavirus test kits and the scarcity of tests has made it impossible for officials, even weeks after the first cases appeared in the country, to get a true picture of the scale of the outbreak.
62. hapless幸運的;不愉快的
63. the scarcity of …的缺乏
64. the scale of the outbreak 疫情的真實規模
問題是,除了少數例外,他們的努力都沒有什麼好結果。在美國,由於開發冠狀病毒檢測工具的進度遲緩,以及檢測手段的缺乏,官員們甚至在出現本國第一例病例數週後仍無法了解疫情的真實規模。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
In hard-hit Italy, quarrels broke out between politicians and medical experts over whether the authorities were testing too many people in Lombardy, inflating the infection figures and fueling panic in the public. Italy’s response could be weakened further by the anti-vaccination movement that was once embraced by the populist Five Star Movement, which took power in the last government.
65. hard-hit 受災嚴重的
66. inflate 抬高;誇大
67. fueling panic加劇恐慌
68. anti-vaccination movement 反疫苗運動
69. populist 民粹主義政黨
70. took power 執政
在受災嚴重的義大利,政界人士和醫學專家爭論當局是否在倫巴第對太多人進行測試,誇大感染人數,加劇公眾恐慌。義大利的反應可能會遭到反疫苗運動的進一步削弱。該運動曾受上屆執政的民粹主義政黨五星運動(Five Star Movement)的支持。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
義大利倫巴第地區是世界上受災最嚴重的地區之一,人們戴著口罩。
Even comparing one country’s case count to another’s is almost impossible, given the different testing procedures and diagnostic criteria around the world, said Dr. Chris Smith, a specialist in virology at the University of Cambridge.
71. testing procedures 檢測程序
72. diagnostic criteria 診斷標準
劍橋大學(University of Cambridge)病毒學專家克里斯·史密斯(Chris Smith)博士表示,考慮到世界各地不同的檢測程序和診斷標準,連對兩個國家的病例數進行比較幾乎都是不可能的。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
In the most extreme example, China’s case count skyrocketed when it began recording positives based on people’s symptoms, rather than a lab test, the method most countries are still using. But even lab tests might yield different results in different places, depending on the targets labs are using and the ways health workers collect and process specimens.
73. based on people’s symptom 根據某人癥狀
74. case count skyrocketed 病例數大幅飆升
75. yield different results 產生不同的結果
最極端的例子是,當中國開始根據癥狀而不是大多數國家仍在使用的實驗室檢測來計算確診病例時,病例數出現了大幅飆升。但即使是實驗室測試,不同的地方也可能產生不同的結果,這取決於實驗室使用的對象以及醫務人員收集和處理標本的方式。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
“Different countries are doing different things,” Dr. Smith said of the testing programs. “You’re not comparing apples to apples.”
「不同的國家正在做不同的事情,」史密斯談到測試項目時說。「這不是蘋果和蘋果之間的對比。」
The rise of populism has exacerbated the problem by reducing the incentives of countries to cooperate. European leaders, in a three-hour teleconference on Tuesday night, agreed to set up a 25 billion euro investment fund, or $28.1 billion, and to relax rules governing airlines to curb the economic fallout.
76. exacerbated the problem 使問題更加嚴重
77. the incentives of 誘因
78. teleconference 電話會議
79. curb the economic fallout 遏制經濟危機的影響
民粹主義的興起減少了各國合作的意願,使問題更加嚴重。歐洲領導人週二晚間舉行了三小時的電話會議,同意設立一個250億歐元(合1930億元人民幣)的投資基金,並放鬆對航空公司的監管,以遏制經濟危機的影響。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
But they failed to overcome national objections to sharing medical equipment like face masks and respirators, given that health issues are the responsibility of national governments. Germany, the Czech Republic and other countries have tightened export restrictions on this gear to keep it for their own citizens.
80. failed to overcome 未能克服
81. respirator 呼吸器
82. tightened export restrictions on… 加強了…的出口限制
83. gear (從事某活動的)裝備,用具,衣服
但他們未能克服各國對分享口罩和呼吸器等醫療器械的反對,因為健康問題是國家政府的責任。德國、捷克共和國等國家已經加強了對這些設備的出口限制,以便將其留給本國公民。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s warning that the virus would infect 60 percent to 70 percent of people in Germany — a figure she attributed to the “consensus among experts” — was the most forthright admission of the scale of the problem by any world leader. It was fully in character for a physicist-turned-politician, reinforcing her status as the liberal West’s foil to Mr. Trump.
84. attributed to 歸於
85. consensus among experts 專家共識
86. forthright (過於)坦誠的,直率的;直截了當的
87. reinforce 強化,加深,進一步證實(觀點、看法等)
88. the liberal West’s foil 自由主義西方世界中的對比
89. foil 陪襯物*
德國總理安哥拉·梅克爾(Angela Merkel)警告說,這種病毒將感染德國60%到70%的人——她稱這一數字來自「專家共識」——這是世界各國領導人對該問題嚴重性最坦率的承認態度。這完全符合從物理學家轉型為政治家的梅克爾的性格,令她進一步成為自由主義西方世界中川普的一個鮮明對比。
*http://bit.ly/3deYyVe
★★★★★★★★★★★★
“We will do whatever is needed,” she said. “We won’t ask every day, ‘What does this mean for our deficit?’”
90. deficit 赤字
「我們會竭盡所能,」她說。「我們不會每天都問,『這對我們的赤字有什麼影響?』」
Yet even Ms. Merkel’s position has been weakened by the resurgence of the far right in Germany. Germany rebuffed a request for medical equipment from Italy, only to see China offer the Italians an aid package that includes two million face masks and 100,000 respirators.
91. a resurgence of 復甦;復興;再次興起
92. far right 極右翼勢力
93. rebuff 斷然拒絕
94. only to do sth 不料卻,沒想到卻
然而,就連梅克爾的地位也被德國極右翼勢力的復甦削弱了。德國拒絕了義大利提供醫療器械的請求,中國卻向義大利提供了包括200萬隻口罩和10萬隻呼吸器在內的援助。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
In Britain, which left the European Union in January, there are already fears that the country will not have access to a vaccine, or will have to pay more for it than other European countries. Mr. Johnson’s government, which won its recent election on a populist-inflected platform of “Get Brexit Done,” is now struggling with how to communicate the risks of the outbreak to its public.
95. a vaccine 疫苗
96. platform 綱領,政綱,宣言
在今年1月脫離歐盟的英國,已經有人擔心該國將無法獲得疫苗,或者將不得不支付比其他歐洲國家更多的費用。強生的政府在最近的選舉中獲勝,憑藉的是受民粹主義影響的「完成脫歐」(Get Brexit Done)宣言。如今這個政府正在吃力地向民眾宣講疫情暴發的風險。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
The Johnson government has put a lot of stock in a so-called nudge unit in Downing Street that specializes in behavioral psychology. But in trying to calibrate its response to what it deemed people capable of processing, the government risked condescending to Britons, said John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for the northwest of England.
97. put a lot of stock in 投入了大量資金
98. so-called 所謂
99. nudge unit 哄勸部門
100. behavioral psychology 行為心理學
101. calibrate 判斷;劃分刻度,標定
102. deem 認為,視為;覺得
103. condescending 表現出高…一等的姿態的,帶有優越感地對待…的
強生政府在唐寧街設立了一個擅長行為心理學的所謂「哄勸」部門,為此投入了大量資金。但前英格蘭西北部地區公共衛生主任約翰·阿什頓(John Ashton)說,政府在判斷人們的接受限度,並以這個限度為依據來制定自己的應對措施,這可能是在用一種假惺惺的屈就方式對待英國人民。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
Britain has only recently started publishing broad breakdowns of where people are contracting the virus. Mr. Ashton said they should be giving much more detailed information, as in Hong Kong, which has published building-level maps of patients who have gotten sick, when they were there and how they contracted the virus.
英國直到最近才開始公布感染髮生的具體地點。阿什頓說,他們應該提供更詳細的信息,就像香港一樣。香港公布了具體到建築的患者地圖,並提供他們在那裡的時間和感染病毒的方式。
“I think it’s patronizing — they need to keep the public fully in the picture,” Mr. Ashton said. “You have to treat the public as adults, instead of keeping them in the dark. That’s where you get rumor and hysteria. They actually create panic by not being open with people.”
104. patronizing 屈尊俯就的;自以為高人一等的
105. keep sb in the picture 使(某人)了解情況
106. keeping sb in the dark 蒙在鼓裡
107. rumor and hysteria 謠言和歇斯底里
「我認為這是一種哄人的姿態——他們需要讓公眾充分了解情況,」阿什頓說。「你必須像對待成年人一樣對待公眾,而不是把他們蒙在鼓裡。謠言和歇斯底里就是這麼來的。他們不向人民開誠布公,實際上是在製造恐慌。」
★★★★★★★★★★★★
完整報導: https://nyti.ms/2J070dm
圖片來源: http://bit.ly/2U1tgJS
★★★★★★★★★★★★
這篇文章你最喜歡哪一句? 辛苦的小編把所有的關鍵片語都列出來了! 同學會持續的看到這些關鍵詞彙和句型出現在我們所有的時事英文喔!
★★★★★★★★★★★★
台灣的應對: http://bit.ly/3a6NSGu
保健心智圖: https://goo.gl/seqt5k
保健相關單字: https://wp.me/p44l9b-Tt (+mp3)
時事英文大全: http://bit.ly/2WtAqop
★★★★★★★★★★★★
這一週的「時事英文」講義和使用方式: https://bit.ly/3a9rr38
transmission delay 在 A Nan MOSTA 阿男醫師の磨思塔 Facebook 八卦
「舉證之所在,勝敗之所在!」
今天,疫情指揮中心,陳時中部長的國際新聞稿前,應該要有人,先幫他讀一讀我1/30,提到1/29「中國官員舉證自證己罪」這一篇...
1. 2020年一月初,中國疾控官員也是共同作者們,早就知道有「人傳人」的證據!
2. 中國明知有「人傳人」的證據,卻未依據WHO-IHR,落實早期監視通報義務,卻隱匿疫情到一月下旬?
3. WHO 未依據IHR之法定義務,進一步釐清疫情資訊,以警告各國「中國已有異常人際傳染疫情正「隔離isolation」中」,後來各國已死傷慘重,難道還認為WHO好棒棒?
4. 到底,是中國隱匿? 還是WHO失職? 還是台灣的「攻擊」?
歷史與世界人民,眼睛會是雪亮的!
*
2020/1/30 A Nan Tsai
NEJM最新論文(1/29)出爐了!竟然,掀開了天大的秘密與醜聞!
中國武漢肺炎最初傳染425個案例流行病學大公開!
中國武漢肺炎隱匿疫情的戰犯們,自證己罪/呈堂證供都在這裡?看來有人要倒大楣了!
作者群裡有幾位身兼中國中央及省市地方疾病管制單位?
1. 原來,早在2019/12月中,你們自己人可能就知道會「人傳人」?!
2. 原來,你們早就知道後來多數案例已跟華南海鮮市場無關!?
3. 可惡,2020/1月中,還騙人「不會人傳人」?「有限人傳人」? 「可防可控」?
4. 直到1/20 才被外省人北京鍾南山院士揭發武漢肺炎「會人傳人」!害全球華人2020農曆年都不用過年了!
5. 作者群裡有幾位身兼中國中央及地方疾病管制單位? 竟然還隱匿疫情到1月底?只顧著寫論文?是誰說「感控任務完成前,不應把精力放在論文發表上...」?
6. 你們到底做了什麼防疫作為?應注意能注意而有注意?坐視人群傳染觀察研究數據而不救人?
7. 到底,寫論文投稿重要?還是公共衛生防疫救人重要?是誰說「要把人民群眾生命放在第一位」?
8.公共衛生倫理與學術倫理,都需要被嚴格檢視!除了違反倫理,難道沒有違反中國傳染病防治相關法規?
9. 尊重生命是普世價值,面對武漢肺炎世紀疫災千萬難民,到底根本原因系統因素是什麼? 全方位危機處理怎麼辦?
10. 到底,誰說「緩報」、「瞞報」、「漏報」導致疫情擴散要嚴懲?
習大大,李克強,你們不該震怒嗎,不該徹查法辦嗎?
「Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
List of authors.
Qun Li, M.Med., Xuhua Guan, Ph.D., Peng Wu, Ph.D., Xiaoye Wang, M.P.H., et al.
January 29, 2020
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
Abstract
BACKGROUND
The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP.
METHODS
We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number.
RESULTS
Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).
CONCLUSIONS
On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.)」
https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR0LXobYPxQ1axGk7uGQF6hgYpGJqfA7cYqxysNLDtMHIa3ULclkRwfwrFU
*(2020/1/31,1205補註
《权威媒体曝武汉疫情瞒报实锤!医学教授:我已经出离愤怒了》
刚刚,新京报披露了一个令人震惊的消息:早在去年12月中,有关方面就已经知道新冠病毒,并获悉会在人与人之间传播。
据刚刚新京报刊发的文章说:新一项针对新型冠状病毒肺炎的传播动力学研究显示,2019年12月中旬密切接触者之间就已发生人际传播。此外,1月1日至11日已有7名医务人员感染。
报道说:上述研究报告于北京时间1月30日发表于医学期刊新英格兰杂志(NEJM),题为《新型冠状病毒感染肺炎在中国武汉的初期传播动力学》。作者来自中国疾控中心、武汉疾控中心等机构。
报道显示,报告收集了截至2020年1月22日已报告并经实验室确诊的新型冠状病毒肺炎病例的人口统计学特征、暴露史和疾病时间线信息。
也即是说,被抓8人,至少某些地方高层,乃至更高级别的卫生防疫系统官员,很清楚他们是被冤枉的。
这些目前并不重要,重要的在下边:
报告中的图表显示,1月1日至11日期间,武汉有7名医务人员感染。1月12日至22日期间,有8名医务人员感染。图/新英格兰杂志
新京报记者查阅发现:武汉市卫健委1月11日7时发布的官方通报显示,目前,未发现医务人员感染,未发现明确的人传人证据。1月12日官方通报中提到,密切接触者中没有发现相关病例,未通报医务人员感染情况。
直至1月20日,国家级专家组组长钟南山院士接受媒体采访时,首次证实有医务人员感染。
也就是说,在这期间,省市一级已经很清楚,但并未向社会公布。
新京报报道截图
也是在今天下午,认证为浙江大学教授,《上帝的手术刀》《生命是什么》的作者@王王王立铭,在其微博中发表了一篇《我已经出离愤怒》的文章。
文章开头他就说:是我第一次实锤看到明白无误的证据,新冠病毒人传人的证据被有意的隐瞒了!!!!
文章说,美国时间昨天,2020/1/29,新英格兰医学杂志又发表了一篇名为《新型冠状病毒肺炎在中国武汉的早期传播》的论文,提供了迄今为止最为详细的流行病学数据(425名患者的数据)。这项工作的作者是来自中国疾控中心、各地疾控中心以及其他很多研究机构的研究者。
他表示:在1月初的头几天,和华南海鲜市场无关的患者数量就开始占据绝对多数。病毒人际传播的迹象已经非常非常明确了!
其说:我的问题很简单:从这篇论文的数据来看,国家疾控中心早在一月的头几天就已经掌握了明确的病毒人传人的证据,那么从那个时候一直到1/20日这三个星期里,这个消息是在哪个步骤被掩盖了?
是疾控中心的科学家为了发表论文,对数据密不外宣?是武汉市政府为了某些需要压制数据的公开?还是什么别的情况?
@王王王立铭说:我已经快爆炸了,我需要论文的作者们给我一个解释!!!!作为掌握第一手信息的研究者,你们比公众早三个星期知道了病毒人传人的确凿信息,你们有没有做到你们该做的事情?
由于太过敏感,自己点击链接去看 (已被刪)
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