[個股分析經驗談: 歪掉的成長股]
[從錯誤中學習]
去年對平台經濟做了些研究; 後來在秋天時, 看到原來一路漲的餐飲外送平台Grubhub(GRUB)股價下跌了, 心想或許這是一個好機會, 於是夥同高手一起對它做了個股分析.
隨著時間的流逝, 從新聞中我也感受到競爭版圖的變化. 也決定不再對GRUB抱著期望. 它就是我watchlist中, 一個用來驗證自己看法的代號而已.
個把個月過去了, 昨天股價又因為財報大跌了(另)一次.
餐飲外送這個市場的競爭越來越激烈了. 餐飲外送原本就是個競爭激烈的產業, 公司也很難有pricing power(定價能力).
三季無轉機. 決定將GRUB從觀察名單中移除.
從這次分析中學到的寶貴經驗:
1. 新興產業從藍海變成紅海的速度可以很快.
2. 要注意先行者優勢(first mover advantage)是否消失. 要隨時注意競爭對手的舉動.
3. 新興產業中的龍頭公司, 也有可能被老二老三(快速)擊敗.
4. 也是從這次的個股分析中, 讓我著實體會到了產業分析在個股分析中, 所扮演的重要角色.
5. 定價能力的重要性. 這也是巴老最看重的元素之一.
Grubhub CEO Matt Maloney, on the heels of a lukewarm earnings report that pummeled the company’s stock, criticized rivals DoorDash and Postmates for high service fees, extra costs hidden in menu markups and subscription programs he described as "bogus."
Maloney's charges followed a tepid quarter for the food delivery company, which reported a 96% dive in net income year-over-year to $1.3 million as its operating expenses and marketing costs ballooned. Revenue for the three months ending in June increased 36% year-over-year to $325.1 million, beating the FactSet consensus estimate of nearly $318 million. Grubhub, which went public in 2014, also lowered the top end of its full year revenue forecast, to a range of $1.34 billion and $1.39 billion.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bizcarson/2019/07/30/grubhub-q2-earnings-delivery-price-gouging/#5f8528dd6c78
