Nightcrawler whistles | Lee Yee
High-ranking officials who have been sanctioned by the US and those who have not yet made it on the list have each responded, one after another, in a “One Country, One System” tone of voice. Apart from "resolutely opposed" and "severely condemned," they have not addressed the reasons behind the US’ decision for the sanctions. They say it is an honor to be sanctioned for the cause of the nation. Some simply issued statements in simplified Chinese characters, clearly not targeted at the Hong Kong people. The most ludicrous is that Carrie Lam said she was planning to proactively cancel her US visa that expires in 2026 anyways. It turns out that she cannot enter the US border because she “voluntarily canceled” it herself. Her Ah-Q-style, self-consoling spirit does not die!
An honor or a disgrace, it really depends on who issued the sanction. To be sanctioned by North Korea, Cuba, Russia or China is not the same as being sanctioned by the US. As such, feelings of glory or humiliation should be the opposite too. Some international experts and finance experts analyzed that the strictest clause is to “prohibit all transactions by US persons or within (or transiting) the US that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons.” If genuinely implemented, it would mean that the bank accounts and credit cards of sanctioned individuals will be canceled, their Facebook accounts will be shut down, McDonald’s cannot sell them Happy Meals, they cannot buy iPhones from Apple and cannot enjoy original factory maintenance services, etc. It is said that even China-funded banks will be black-listed because China-funded banks also have branches in the US. It is still uncertain whether these will be the case because never before have sanctioned individuals come from an international finance center such as Hong Kong. Although it is undetermined, the concerned parties cannot but consider the implications and countermeasures if confirmed. It is embarrassing enough just not to be able to use a credit card.
In 1969, the Soviet Union wanted to carry out a “surgical strike” on China’s nuclear base. It tried to gauge the reaction of the US, but the US halted them to stop. Why did not the Soviet Union test the water with other nuclear-weapon states such as the UK and France? This is because the US military power is strong enough to contain reckless military actions by other countries.
In 1971, Henry Kissinger made a secret visit to China and the Sino-US relations achieved a major breakthrough. That year, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a motion to admit the entry of China in the UN. How is it that China had struggled for more than two decades to join the UN but managed to win the resolution this round? This is because the US had changed its China policy.
In 2000, the US granted China permanent normal trade relations status. The following year, China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has since found prospering opportunities to become the World’s Factory in the global market. Why had China not been able to enter the WTO for so many years? This is because the US did not grant China this permanent normal trade status until this time.
When China and the US commenced diplomatic relations in 1979, Deng Xiaoping visited the US and said to his accompanying associate on the plane: “Looking back over the past few decades, all countries that have good relations with the US have prospered.” China has indeed thrived. What Deng did not say was that the countries that have unfriendly relations with the US have pauperized, such as Cuba, China before 1976, and even the Soviet Union, which had only strategic weapons, and its people had to line up to buy bread.
The Cold War after the Second World War was led by the US, and other Western countries followed. The US has always been the trending global leader with its national power, system, technology, dollar hegemony, pop culture, and free spirit. It is not that the US does not make mistakes, but its system and the spirit of freedom make it capable of correcting its mistakes. The US began the wave of diplomatic relations between Western countries and China in the 1970s, and the trend of investing in China in the 21st century. Without the US, China would still be isolated and impoverished. The US is now making amends and starting an ultra-cold war with China, which seems to have also shown a trend-setting momentum.
So, are sanctions the new direction? At least the Five Eyes Alliance will follow subsequently. Stop deceiving yourself with “I have no assets in the US” and “I do not want to go to the US.”
Therefore, not only eleven individuals and their families suffered insomnia last Friday night, but also some followers and those who did things against their conscience. Returning officers responsible for disqualifying nominees, wicked police officers, 18 members of the Council of the University of Hong Kong, and those who claimed not patriotic enough to make it to the first sanction list and not able to enjoy the honor. I’m afraid they did not get a wink of sleep either or at least suffered anxiety because only an idiot cannot see the true powers and the direction of the world trends.
The humiliation brought about by being cut off from US companies, the immediate considerations of various inconveniences, the spread of sanction from the US to other civilized countries, the devastating impact on the will to govern subordinates and the entire ruling team, and many more. These will not just happen overnight but will come one after another and very soon. The responses of the sanctioned high-level officials are really just nightcrawlers whistling.
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Is a U.S.-China hot war imminent?|Lee Yee
In July, Pompeo claimed the American policy towards China is harsher than the one towards the Soviet Union in the Cold War era. The approach has been shifted from “listening to its words and watching its deeds” to “ignoring its words and only watching its deeds”. Recent developments show that the U.S. is striding closer and closer to a complete de-linkage with China. The recall of the ambassador from China was just a prelude. What followed was the U.S. official interpretation that “one China policy” is not equivalent to “one China principle”, plus the emphasis that “the U.S. holds no specific standpoint towards the sovereignty of Taiwan”. Furthermore, during the visit of Krach, U.S. Under Secretary of State, Tsai Ing-wen stated that “Taiwan has the determination to take the critical step”. Adding fuel to this, Hsiao Bi Khim, Taiwan’s delegate at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., introduced herself as the “Taiwan Ambassador to the U.S.” on Twitter. In view of all these, is the U.S. going to establish diplomatic relation with Taiwan? Will it turn out to be the “October surprise” before the U.S. presidential election? In response, China dispatched fighter jets to violate the airspace of Taiwan, and as “Global Times” put it, “this was not a gesture of warning, but an actual combat exercise of attacking Taiwan”. In return, Taiwan authority urged China “not to underestimate its armed forces' resolve in safeguarding Taiwan”. As tension keeps building up across the Strait, will the U.S. intervene and finally trigger a U.S.-China hot war?
For the last few months, while analyzing the situation, quite a few observers have drawn upon the “Thucydides trap” originated from an ancient Greek historian. According to this theory, when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as an international hegemony, there will be an unavoidable tendency towards war.
To be frank, these observers may have well overestimated the strength of China. Thanks to its huge population, China has become the second largest economic entity in the world. But we are now living in an era that national strength is rather defined by technological advancement. In reality, China is militarily inferior to Russia and technologically lagging far behind major western countries. To put it simply, China is yet to be capable of challenging the American dominance.
Back in the 1980s, in the heyday of its economic development, Japan has significantly outperformed the U.S. in the capital market, and some American scholars have come to the “Japan No.1” conclusion. Despite this, there was never a sign of military confrontation between U.S. and Japan. A decade later, the formation of the European Union posed new challenge to the American supremacy. But again, the two did not come anywhere close to a war. So why has the emergence of China, which in fact lacks the capabilities to overwhelm the U.S., aroused much anticipation of war?
Rudolph Rummel, an American professor of political studies, have made a thorough analysis on the correlation between wars and democracy in human history. After humans surviving a thousand years of darkness, it was not until the independence of the U.S. in 1776 that unveiled a democratic institution with public elections, separation of powers, multi-party system as well as freedom of speech, press, religion and assembly. After more than a hundred years, in 1900 there were only 13 democratic countries in the world. And after another decade, in 2015 the rose to 130, and dictatorial states without meaningful elections have become the minority.
According to Rummel’s statistics, there were 371 wars between 1816 and 2005. Among them, 205 were fought between two dictatorial countries and 166 between democratic and dictatorial ones. Interestingly, there had not been a single war between democratic countries. The conclusion is all too obvious: if there were only democratic states on earth, wars would not happen.
And here lies the fundamental reason why the “Thucydides Trap” has been more valid in the old days when dictatorial systems prevailed, but has failed to apply in contemporary cases between two democratic countries. And it also explains why the competitions between the U.S. and Japan or the EU have not led to any war, while the challenge from China will probably end up differently.
In a democratic system, to wage a war requires a consensus among the government, legislature, media and public opinion. It is rather a matter of the people’s collective will than the ruler’s subjective decision. Whereas within a dictatorial structure, no approval from the legislature is needed, media and public opinion are never respected and judicial challenge simply does not exist. A dictator or oligarch can just go to war at will.
From a dictator’s point of view, whether to enter a war or not is not subject to external circumstance, but the domestic status of his ruling. When a dictator’s position gets shaken by severe economic downturn and widespread public discontent, he will try to divert domestic dissatisfaction by means of foreign maneuvers. The dictator tends to single out those “non-conforming groups”, as so identified by the “little pink” Chinese patriots, and tries bullying them, as what the CCP is doing in India, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia. The objective is to distract attention with extreme nationalism. More often than not, stirring up external instability has become a tactic to secure domestic stability of the dictator’s rule.
Perhaps a shrewd dictator will weigh up the strength of his counterpart before taking action. Nevertheless, the intrinsically defective system may hinder the dictator from understanding the reality and accessing different views. And personal intellectual and intelligent inadequacies may also breed unrealistic self-inflating belief. The resulted stupidity can make a tragedy more imminent than everyone may expect.
russia military power 在 方志恒 Brian Fong Facebook 八卦
【#通識時間】研究中國影響力將是顯學,一個最新的概念是「尖實力」。
傳統上,評估一個國家的影響力時,多用到「硬實力」(經濟軍事力量)和「軟實力」(文化價值的吸引力)的概念。上月,美國國家民主基金發表研究報告,指中國和俄羅斯正透過統戰、吸納、滲透和威脅等不同方式,影響其他國家的媒體、大學和智庫,以達到操控和扭曲當地民意輿論的目的,這種帶有威權色彩的影響力,就被稱為「尖實力」。不幸地,香港可能是最早被「尖實力」穿透的地方。
Studying China's influences shall be focus of academic research in the years to come, and a new concept in this area is "sharp power".
Traditionally, when assessing the influences of a country "hard power" (economic and military strengths) and "soft power" (attraction through values and culture) are the most commonly used concepts. Last month, US National Endowment for Democracy (NED) published a report stating that China and Russia are now exerting strong influences over media, universities and policy community in foreign countries through co-option, infiltration and coercion. By doing so China and Russia have established the leverages on manipulating and distorting the public opinion of foreign countries, such influences are termed as "sharp power". Unfortunately, Hong Kong should be one of the first places that has been invaded by such "sharp power".
#尖實力 #硬實力 #軟實力 #中國影響力 #SharpPower #ChinaInfluence
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