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老規矩，夠like有即市IG圖表分析。
【20191230--異動空間】美滙預示大升浪？
//...上文講到環球央行大放水，推動金價突破降軌急升，影響金價的另一因素（美滙）亦見異動，上日直插0.6%至97水平，確認過去1年半的升浪告終。去年美滙初升就是貿戰爆發之時，港股由30,000點瀉至24,540；如今美滙破位而落，是否意味貿戰緩和，配合央行救市、美國大選年等因素，港股未來數月可做齣好戲？
宏觀格局改善，資金低撈舊經濟股，例如內房、金融及資源股，去年來飽受關稅、經濟壓力的龍頭工業股，隨時爆發一輪可觀的relief rally！......//
全文：https://hk.finance.appledaily.com/finance/realtime/article/20191229/60428943
［人類史上第一間］（＊）兩年多啲，蘋果由10000萬億市值，變到20000萬億市值。造就幾多人脫貧。當然唔包括啲「車扯但係如果不過」撚
TLDR：幾個啟示：永遠樂觀。唔好同聯儲局對抗。遠離你啲網友。做生意唔使拎難度分，賺錢就得。買股票都係。
1. 係喎，都話早兩三年先講緊four comma club，race to 1 tillion market cap（美金啦）．在呢個世紀疫情呀中美關係冷封呀過兩日核戰呀之中，蘋果就成為人類史上第一間 2 tillion market cap嘅公司。所以optimism is the only answer．悲觀嘅基因會在進化中淘汰。
2. 當然你可以質疑，而家升你梗係咁講。但你自己爬舊文鞭屍，我3月一樣叫你買。仲有人串（真係咩人都有），挑，升又叫買跌又叫買，使撚你講咩。係喎，就係咁簡單。偏偏咁簡單都有人唔知，就係要撚我講
3. 關於蘋果寫過多次，月頭先寫過一次—蘋果咬一口（https://fbook.cc/3EHQ）
4. 蘋果市值2萬億有乜啟示？其實冇乜啟示，預咗。只係時間問題。唔知教主泉下有知開唔開心，不過佢都唔係為錢嘅人—因為佢已經相當有錢。而早排吾友廖博士講開，科技公司嘅嘢，唔好賣咁多畀人。都啱。
5. 但其實都冇所謂，真係講成熟嘅corporate governance （人人都講ESG，你估真係人人都要ESG咩），應該創辦人呀大股東呀全部收皮，專業管理人，CEO係打工仔。添曲咪就係打工仔—不過蘋果都造就到佢變咗billionaire ，美金啦頂。10億美金咯，當然同小朱呀Elon Musk呀1000億冇得比，但，3 comma club喎，全世界應該得兩三千個（https://bit.ly/3kSTIRo）
6. 咁會又有人話馬後炮乜乜乜。但你可以睇返，3月風聲鶴淚個個又話未有疫苗呀仲日日有人死呀經濟有排都好唔返呀而家買貨傻的嗎。但我一直都叫大家唔好沽。冇錢/唔敢買，都千萬唔好人睬人打靶。
7. 仲有，都話工作關係唔買得個股，但，至少我個股票倉位（唔係噸位），由3月低位計，都升咗近6成了。咁當然啦，只計股票，層樓呢半年當然冇乜點升（好似仲要跌），仲有百幾萬在台灣嘛，養草中，呢個一早公開。點解唔買埋台股？不要再說了。開唔到戶口。咁所以只係現水養草收可恥嘅利息，仲要交稅（係！台灣連利息都要抽稅）。
8. 咁你可以話，扯，咪仲要跑輸Nasdaq（係喎，納指升6成幾），扯，我買隻乜乜乜升得仲多啦。係架，要講大把嘢可以講。但至少我已經好過好多人，同埋我好滿意。你要比幾時都有得比，扯，我買中Tesla一年十倍添。
9. 教訓？都係老生常談，但最簡單嘅嘢反而最難。首先，Stay Invested。第二，股市幾時都同實體經濟脫節（況且實體經濟亦都大反彈）。
10. 多少少嘅？就真係，Don’t fight the Fed。既然個個都識講美元霸權（事實），咁點解聯儲局印錢你夠膽估唔work？有話this rally is driven by liquidity, not fundamental. 君在夢中啦。記住。Liquidity is fundamental。好玄？咁簡單啲，你讀CFA Level I，或者任何Finance 101（＊）課程都會教，所有證券（股票債券都係）（甚至你份工，或者鐵礦，或者一個專利都係），都係一連串未來嘅income stream，你將佢discount 返今日，咪就係價錢。利息低，你個分子（下面嗰個叫分子）咪自然細，除出嚟條數咪大。
11. 仲唔明？再簡單啲，如果利息高，10厘息一年，你十年後還100蚊畀我，今日呢張借據可能只值70蚊—反正我拎去存款都得。但如果息好低？十年後你還100蚊畀你，呢張借據今日應該值90蚊。
12. 所以，聯儲局壓低晒啲利息，買美債得0.7%回報，人人焗買股票，利好股市。有幾難明？咁大個因素都唔理嘅，就怪你基本功差，只係想問冧把發達，同埋貪心諗埋啲一年升廿倍冇風險嘅嘢。
13. 係喎，都仲要講，蘋果早排先又再集資！（https://bit.ly/2E5sMxa），咁梗係發債唔係批股啦。cost of debt低過cost of equity咁低。用人話講？5年債0.55厘息咋！唔集就笨！用嚟做乜？蘋果等錢使？當然唔等。就係回構嘛！
14. 亦都所以，就算醒少少嘅，拎個net profit 出嚟講，蘋果盈利冇增長。唏，但上市公司，CEO任務係乜呀？唔係profit maximization，而係係shareholder wealth maximization呀！拿，早兩日咪講過咯（https://fbook.cc/3EHR）。咪怪你平日唔睇文。唔好咁功利諗住睇一篇必勝文賺錢嘛，功力係慢慢儲返的。咁點解profit 唔升但shareholder wealth可以升？咪就係回購，股數少咗，每股盈利咪多咗咯！
15. 仲有咩教訓？記住，真係記住。人生如踢波，Ignore the boos. They usually come from the cheap seats。你要記住，如果你聽到嘅聲音，一定係質疑嘅多，所謂「口水put」嘅一定最多。原因好簡單：因為多數人都係冇乜資產的。咁佢當然唔想見到股票升，當然覺得一切係假。況且，佢地錯咗亦冇任何成本。一樣可以大條道理串你：挑，升得嗰六成，買Tesla升十倍啦。挑，得嗰幾億身家（我當然冇，精子就可能有），Jeff Bezos嗰啲先叫有錢咯。You can never win．
16. 事實亦見到如此，唔好又講3月啦，你可以睇下過去十年，幾多人恥笑過蘋果冇創意不思進取食老本？車嚟嚟去去只係靠一招（而家其實兩招）。車，closed system control freak（部份tech 撚鍾意講—但記住，唔好用你自己嘅口味去睇股票）
17. 但我鍾意信報郝承林嘅一句，投資唔係跳水比賽，你唔使向内翻腾3周半轉體抱膝，冇難度分的。使Q有創意？你啲網友就最撚有創意。但人地賺到錢，吹咩。2萬億市值嘅公司，都仲要畀你質疑冇創意唔識run，「畀我就點點點」.當然係你啲網友最撚醒。不過懷才不遇嘛，明嘅。
18. 拿，放到最尾先賣廣告呀，學好基本功，隔日幫你補腦。記住訂本人Patreon。再長遠啲，等我全職寫作為生（你睇死唔得？咁你十年前又估唔估到蘋果有2萬億市值？）
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Ivan Patreon 狼耳街華人，一個星期至少三篇，一個月一舊水唔使，一星期已近400人訂，仲有兩篇免費試睇：https://bit.ly/31QmYj7
（＊）嚴格嚟講唔係人類史上第一間。除非你覺得沙地阿拉伯人唔係人。沙特阿美Aramco就曾經有2萬億市值，中石油（857）都好似曾經有。但首先真係只係閃一閃，另外，呢兩間公司好大舊股票都冇放出公海trade，含金量低好多。所以呢個位美國人當自己世界第一，合理嘅。
（＊＊）實在埃汾當年在浸會持續變鳩學院都教過，人工實在麻麻地，好似一千蚊堂，搞足兩三粒鐘，未計車錢呀準備呀改卷呀之類。但，我講緊2004年，咁當時我都係萬幾蚊人工。同埋，好多靚女的說，真係巧多。
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最新收費影片：點解買金？點樣買金？點解港紙好快會下試7.85？咩公司20年冇減過派息？仲有咩疫情受惠公司少人講？
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內容:
*美元弱勢，港紙將更弱勢
*紙將將由7.75趺落7.85
*買黃金:美元受壓銀紙亂印
*買黃金的四個實戰方法
*另類疫情受惠股
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[BURSA REVERSED AND CLOSED OCTOBER STRONG, WALL STREET CLIMBED TO 1% OF RECORD HIGH, UPBEAT ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE DATA TO INSTILL MORE POSITIVE TONE]
Despite being overbought, we expect FBMKLCI to continue trending higher following a fresh wave of bullishness in the global equity markets (both MSCI All-World and FTSE All-World rose 1.8% and 1.7% w-o-w) as investors put aside recent uncertainties over the pace of global growth and the Federal Reserve’s intentions to end its asset purchase program. We note that global equity markets including Bursa closed October strong, after recovering from nine-week-poor-performance (with FBMKLCI finding support near 1760 level after dropping 130 points or 6.8%). Going forward, we expect local stocks to continue the solid rebound following USA economic optimism, bullish global economic (USA 3Q GDP growth/labour market/consumer confidence figures), China state enterprise reforms and Japanese liquidity pump priming which offset worries that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rate sooner than expected. End of year rotation and window dressing are also likely to push equities higher as mutual funds start selling losers and buying winners ahead of the traditionally bullish November-December-January festive seasons. Over the past week, we have seen the local stock market dip lower on profit-taking dragged by the cautious release of the latest US Federal Reserve hawkish meeting minutes and the IMF slower global growth forecast. Contrary to the earlier session sell -off, investors subsequently appeared to take a strong relief after the bullish Fed statement on USA economic strength. Positive tones can be seen in Asian region following China economic reforms despite talks of tough tightening to curb the flow of credit and burst the nation’s property bubble during the weekend’s meeting of China’s Communist party hierarchy. Meanwhile, stronger Japanese Nikkei supported by weaker yen and an optimistic tone from the Bank of Japan as well as talk that a major pension fund is looking to boost exposure into riskier assets should inspire a re-pricing of risk in the regional market and was seen as near term positive for Asian equity markets. There is a bullish report that Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the second largest global pension fund, considered a bellwether for Asian institutional investors, will reduce holdings of bonds and add foreign equities. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% taking the equity benchmark to within 1% of September’s record closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average put in a stronger performance, rising 2.3%, as Nasdaq rose 3% sharply on the back of a strong earnings report. Bursa has rebounded 4.5% from 17th October low after correcting 6.8% since July all time high of 1896.23. Across the Atlantic, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 2.1%, leaving it some 9% above a 13-month low struck two weeks ago with stocks in Milan rallying 2.3% as concerns about Italy’s banking system appeared to ease. In Asia, Hong Kong and Shanghai rallied 1.6% and 2.1% respectively amid talk of further reforms at Chinese state-owned enterprises. Finally, Brazilian stocks captured 50,000 psycho level and rebounded 3.1% in response to Dilma Rousseff’s presidential election victory. On the domestic front, Bursa and construction stocks are the strongest sector driven by Budget 2015, improved prospects for fiscal consolidation, public finance reform as well as continued order book. Although technology and construction stocks showed slow market leadership early this year, they remain the major driver of the latest reversal and have been outperforming after National Budget Day on the 10th October. Further, small cap stocks continue to show upside leadership (FBMSmallCap, FBMFledgling and FBMAce outperform FBMKLCI and remain within 2% of their record high), a sign that Chinese New Year rally is about to start and should prop risk-taking sentiment in December- January despite several snags spotted in the blue chips counters. Five major news that may catalyse Bursa includes the following (1) AirAsia Bhd to propose RM1 bil sukuk mudharabah programme to support its business expansion, administrative and operating expenses (2) Berjaya to mull IPO of Singapore unit to spur growth in its foreign business (3) TM Bhd to expand its broadband infrastructure network as part of its aggressive Johor expansion programme (4) Faber Group Bhd to become one of the largest asset development and management players in the Asean region after completing RM1.5b merger with Opus Group Bhd and Projek Penyelenggaraan Lebuhraya Bhd and finally (5) LPI Capital Bhd to sell 4 mil of its Public Bank shares. On the technical front, the latest gain for the FBMKLCI took it back above its 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month, and left it just 2% below a record closing high reached in the middle of September. Meanwhile, major oscillators are overbought with daily stochastics turning lower from upper line levels while MACD close to flash negative crossover reinforcing a downside break ahead especially if FBMKLCI find near term resistance at 1850 which is also the 200 day moving average. The market however could take on a defensive posture if FBMKLCI reverse down and violate 1830 support level. While there is a potential for a short term dip in the market to rebalance overbought technical conditions, the prevailing trend points up with immediate target at 1850 and 1880 level. One way to look for signs of market stress is to look at breadth figures which so far remain positive suggesting more stocks participating in the rally. Hence, we believe any weakness is just temporary and should not be construed as the start of a new crisis downleg. Given the improved market breadth (average daily trade increase to 1.8bn shares worth RM1.9bn), we expect the local market to sustain gains going forward with immediate resistance spotted at psycho resistance of 1,850, August high of 1,880 and all-time-high of 1,896 while immediate support is pegged at September low near 1,830 level followed by 1,800 and 1,770 levels to immediately cushion any deeper profit taking. Finally, for the weekly strategy, we are inclined towards buying Chinese New Year linked small cap stocks such as MyEG, Timecom, GHLSys, Hapseng, KSL, SMRT, Tekseng, IFCA, Carepls, Bornoil, Nihsin, Perstim, SHL, Luxchem. As for blue chips, traders should accumulate holiday-season-beneficiaries-stocks which do well near the festive year end such as Tenaga, TM, Digi, Axiata, Aeon, Gamuda, IJM, Bursa and KLCC.
Dato' Dr Nazri Khan
First Vice President/Head of Retail Strategy,
Affin Hwang Investment Bank
President, Malaysian Association of Technical Analyst (MATA)
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