กรณีศึกษา การทุบราคาน้ำมัน แล้วเข้าซื้อหุ้นบริษัทน้ำมัน ของซาอุดีอาระเบีย /โดย ลงทุนแมน
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...Continue ReadingCase study of smashing petrol prices and acquiring shares of Saudi Arabian oil companies / by Investing Man.
Announcement to increase production capacity to smash oil prices to sink dirt.
Then find the beat to buy the oil company shares when they are heavily sold.
Then let's go to negotiate production capacity. End conflict with Russia.
Here are 3 simple steps Saudi Arabia has taken over the last several months.
War situation, petrol price
Causes most people to damage the economy.
But if it's a crisis creator, it may be able to predict the end of the story.
And it could be a great opportunity
To earn his own destiny.
So what's the details of this?
Invest. Man will tell you about it
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On March 8, 2020, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia erupted.
The cause is because both can't deal with production reduction to tackle COVID-19 issues.
Saudi Arabia solves the game by increasing its production and pressures Russia to come back to negotiate.
The consequence is crude oil in the world market from before the incident at $ 45 per barrel.
It's drastically adjusted to decrease to $ 12 per barrel.
Many people think that the tactics of cutting their own meat like this shouldn't be worth it.
Because the Saudi Arabian economy is highly susceptible to the rise of petrol prices.
Oil sales income is 42 % of GDP and 87 % of government revenue.
But if Saudi Arabia is aware that it's the price smashing, eventually there will be negotiations.
When tensions are temporary, they may find other benefits.
And what happened is Saudi Arabia buying oil company shares
via Saudi Arabian National Wealth Fund or Public Investment Fund (PIF)
This kind of fund will invest in government's excess liquidity in property to create value added to welfare and developing countries.
PIF is currently the 11th largest national wealth fund in the world.
With the property value of around 10,464,000 million baht.
Which in the end of March to early April 2020
PIF fund has spent 32,700 million baht to buy Europe's top 4 giant oil companies that are heavily compromised because of petrol price war events:
Royal Dutch Shell from Netherlands
The company's value before war. Oil price is at 11,033,000 million baht.
The value of the company after war. The price of oil is at the lowest point of 5,697,000 million baht or 48 % decrease.
Total S.A. from France
The company's value before war. Oil price is at 3,600,000 million baht.
The value of the company after war. The price of oil is at the lowest point of 2,106,000 million baht or 42 % decrease.
Equinor from Norway
The company's value before war. Oil price is at 1,606,000 million baht.
The value of the company after war. The price of oil is at the lowest point of 961,000 million baht or 40 % decrease.
Eni from Italy
The company's value before war. Oil price is at 1,340,000 million baht.
The value of the company after war. The price of oil is at the lowest point of 830,000 million baht or 38 % decrease.
Saudi Arabia gives reasons to invest that the stock prices of these companies are very lower than the basics, interesting and may also find opportunities to buy more companies.
Shortly after April 12, 2020
It's called a meeting between export oil manufacturers (OPEC) led by Saudi Arabia.
And outer alliance country led by Russia
The result of negotiations can achieve a common agreement as follows.
May-June 2020 reduce production capacity of 9.7 million barrels per day.
July-December 2020, 7.7 million barrels production capacity per day.
January - April 5.8 2021 million barrels per day
Including Saudi Arabian government has ordered to reduce its capacity for 1 million barrels per day in June.
Saudi Arabia has bought a stock for oil companies.
After smashing the market price, it scares people.
Before I start walking to solve problems
However, no one can be sure of how much this investment has involved in gasoline price war.
And nothing guarantees oil prices won't go down any more from COVID-19 global economic impact.
PIF fund also bought the shares of Carnival Corporation, the largest cruise business owner in the world.
The value is reduced to 75 % from COVID-19 problems.
Which aligns with Saudi Arabian economic reform plan that wants to diversify investment from energy industries such as generating more income from travel business.
This story should be a good idea
Every movement in the business world always lurks with ingenious strategies.
Even an unknown act of what I did.
There may be a background that we don't know.
Saudi Arabian oil price smash case
At first, many people have questions about who will benefit.
Which buying a share of this decency oil company might be one of the answers to this..
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References
-https://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-fund-takes-stakes-in-european-oil-companies-2020-04-08
-https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Investment_Fund_of_Saudi_Arabia
-https://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/sovereign-wealth-fund
-https://www.macrotrends.net/
-https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/12/opec-and-allies-finalize-record-oil-production-cut-after-days-of-discussion.htmlTranslated
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