financial markets and institutions的八卦，Yahoo名人娛樂都在討論

‼️Breaking‼️突發‼️

美國財政部周四按《全球馬格尼茨基人權問責法》（The Global Magnitsky Act），宣佈制裁4名中國人及新疆公安局，其中包括新疆黨委書記陳全國、前政法委書記朱海侖、新疆維吾爾自治區政府副主席王明山，以及現任新疆維吾爾自治區公安廳黨委書記霍留軍，指他們涉及嚴重侵犯新疆少數民族的人權。

“Treasury Sanctions Chinese Entity and Officials Pursuant to Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act...

‼️Breaking‼️突發‼️

美國財政部周四按《全球馬格尼茨基人權問責法》（The Global Magnitsky Act），宣佈制裁4名中國人及新疆公安局，其中包括新疆黨委書記陳全國、前政法委書記朱海侖、新疆維吾爾自治區政府副主席王明山，以及現任新疆維吾爾自治區公安廳黨委書記霍留軍，指他們涉及嚴重侵犯新疆少數民族的人權。

“Treasury Sanctions Chinese Entity and Officials Pursuant to Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act
July 9, 2020

Washington – Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned one Chinese government entity and four current or former government officials in connection with serious rights abuses against ethnic minorities in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). These designations include Chen Quanguo, the Communist Party Secretary of XUAR, and Zhu Hailun, a former Deputy Party Secretary of the XUAR. Also designated today is the Xinjiang Public Security Bureau (XPSB), as well as the current Director and Communist Party Secretary of the XPSB, Wang Mingshan, and the former Party Secretary of the XPSB, Huo Liujun. The entity and officials are being designated for their connection to serious human rights abuse against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, which reportedly include mass arbitrary detention and severe physical abuse, among other serious abuses targeting Uyghurs, a Turkic Muslim population indigenous to Xinjiang, and other ethnic minorities in the region.

“The United States is committed to using the full breadth of its financial powers to hold human rights abusers accountable in Xinjiang and across the world,” said Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin.

This action is being taken pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13818, “Blocking the Property of Persons Involved in Serious Human Rights Abuse or Corruption,” which builds upon and implements the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act.

These designations are the latest U.S. government actions in an ongoing effort to deter human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region. On July 1, 2020, the U.S. Department of State, along with the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, issued the Xinjiang Supply Chain Business Advisory, advising businesses with potential supply chain exposure to Xinjiang to consider the reputational, economic, and legal risks of involvement with entities that engage in human rights abuses in Xinjiang, such as forced labor. On May 22, 2020, the U.S. Department of Commerce added nine PRC entities related to human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region to the Commerce Entity List; this action complemented the October 2019 addition to the Commerce Entity List of 28 entities engaged in the PRC repression campaign in the Xinjiang region. Also, in October 2019, the U.S. Department of State announced a visa restriction policy under section 212 (a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act for PRC and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials responsible for, or complicit in, human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

CHEN QUANGUO AND ZHU HAILUN

The Xinjiang region in western China is home to Uyghurs, ethnic Kazakhs, ethnic Kyrgyz, and other traditionally Muslim minority groups. XUAR is the regional government of Xinjiang and falls under the governance of the PRC. Chen Quanguo (Chen) is the Party Secretary of the XUAR, a position he was appointed to in 2016, following Chen’s notorious history of intensifying security operations in the Tibetan Autonomous Region to tighten control over the Tibetan ethnic minorities. While Chen was already known for his ability to control “ethnic unrest,” when he got to Xinjiang, he had a deputy who understood the Xinjiang region, Zhu Hailun (Zhu), who for the past few decades had held several positions in the Chinese Communist Party, prior to holding the position of Party Secretary of the Xinjiang Political and Legal Committee (XPLC) from 2016 to 2019. In this role, Zhu was responsible for maintaining internal security and law enforcement in the XUAR; while Zhu left this role in 2019, he still currently serves as the Deputy Secretary of Xinjiang’s People’s Congress, a regional legislative body. Following his arrival to the region, Chen began implementing a comprehensive surveillance, detention, and indoctrination program in Xinjiang, targeting Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities through the XPSB.

As a part of Chen’s plans, the large-scale construction of mass detention camps, labelled “training centers,” greatly escalated in 2017, and as the Party Secretary of the XPLC, Zhu established the policies and procedures for managing these detention camps with the purported goal of using the camps to fight terrorism and maintain stability. Zhu’s policies outlined how the detention camps would operate, to include not allowing “escapes” and “abnormal deaths.” At the same time, former detainees of these detention camps report that deaths occurred among fellow detainees after torture and abuse at the hands of the security officials. A large focus of these detention camps was constant surveillance, even while detainees remain totally cut off from the outside world.

Chen is being designated for being a foreign person who is or has been a leader or official of an entity, including any government entity, that has engaged in, or whose members have engaged in serious human rights abuse relating to the leader’s or official’s tenure, and Zhu is being designated for being a foreign person who is responsible for or complicit in, or has directly or indirectly engaged in, serious human rights abuse.

REPRESSION IN THE XUAR: XINJIANG PUBLIC SECURITY BUREAU, HUO LIUJUN, AND WANG MINGSHAN

Since at least late 2016, repressive tactics have been used by the XPSB against the Uyghurs and members of other ethnic minority groups in the region, including mass detentions and surveillance. The PRC’s surveillance has targeted members of religious and ethnic minority groups, as the Chinese government treats almost all expressions of faith as a sign of religious “extremism” or ethnic separatism. Targets of this surveillance are often detained and reportedly subjected to various methods of torture and “political reeducation.” According to press reporting, since at least 2017, more than one million Muslims have been held in these camps.

Under the command of Huo Liujun (Huo), leader of the XPSB from at least March 2017 to 2018, and Wang Mingshan (Wang), leader of the XPSB since at least May 2018, the XPSB has deployed the “Integrated Joint Operations Platform” (IJOP), an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-assisted computer system that created biometric records for millions of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region. The XPSB, through the IJOP, uses digital surveillance systems to track Uyghurs’ movements and activities, to include surveilling who they interact with and what they read. In turn, IJOP uses this data to determine which persons could be potential threats; according to reports, some of these individuals are subsequently detained and sent to detention camps, being held indefinitely without charges or trial. The IJOP AI platform is one of the first examples of governments using AI for racial profiling. According to press reporting, the IJOP technology looks exclusively for Uyghurs, based on their appearance, and keeps records of their movements. The mass detention of Uyghurs is part of an effort by PRC authorities to use detentions and data-driven surveillance to create a police state in the Xinjiang region.

The XPSB is being designated for being a foreign person responsible for, or complicit in, or that has directly or indirectly engaged in, serious human rights abuse. Huo and Wang are each being designated for being a foreign person who is or has been a leader or official of an entity whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 13818 as a result of activities related to the leaders’ or officials’ tenure.

SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS

As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of the entity and individuals named above, and of any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by them, individually, or with other blocked persons, that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons, are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. Unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC or otherwise exempt, OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons. The prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any blocked person or the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods or services from any such person.

GLOBAL MAGNITSKY

Building upon the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, the President signed E.O. 13818 on December 20, 2017, in which the President found that the prevalence of human rights abuse and corruption that have their source, in whole or in substantial part, outside the United States, had reached such scope and gravity that it threatens the stability of international political and economic systems. Human rights abuse and corruption undermine the values that form an essential foundation of stable, secure, and functioning societies; have devastating impacts on individuals; weaken democratic institutions; degrade the rule of law; perpetuate violent conflicts; facilitate the activities of dangerous persons; and undermine economic markets. The United States seeks to impose tangible and significant consequences on those who commit serious human rights abuse or engage in corruption, as well as to protect the financial system of the United States from abuse by these same persons.”

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1055

1. 昨日開演史上單日最大跌幅的崩盤秀後，目前指數期貨又千點反彈。近日我們應該可以多次見證歷史。

2. 如同我在「利率倒掛與repo rate」一文（https://tinyurl.com/tgfhnm4）闡述短期與長期利率與近日的恐慌和風險貼水之間的邏輯關係投資人必須有清楚的認識與分別。

3. Fed從去年9月快速且幾百億美元鉅資介入repo market到現在的主動救市，我認為關鍵點都在於「non-banking institutions的現金需求如果不能從repo market滿足，則將被迫賣出原本可以拿來repo 抵押的美國國債，很可能在短期內快速推升國債利率，引發美國政府財務危機。」

順著此思路去走，很多問題可以輕易解開。

4. 但反過來，Fed這種扭曲市場資訊的貨幣政策，本身也會累積出災難性後果。誠如貨幣經濟學家Allan Meltzer多次批評：Fed永遠學不會教訓。

5. 新型冠狀病毒造成的全球經濟損失很可能比目前多數人或投資機構評估以為的輕得多。但中國過度防疫的代價恐怕不小。

（有網友詢問此點依據何在，另補充如下：
"以目前我看到的病情描述或研究，此新冠狀病毒引發的肺炎都屬於中醫傷寒論中太陽病症的傷於寒加減十棗湯症，以家傳所學的中醫，大概可以推測疫情的狀況。
剩下的就是經濟學的思考與判斷了。"）

這點我還是秉持今年1月就寫出的看法 -- 只有塵埃落定的事後諸葛才釐得清。

6. 股市崩盤不見得是因為實體經濟生產力或總體契約制度有問題。金融市場崩盤也不見得會對後者造成傷害。

我談過實體經濟的把脈與診斷要怎麼操作，這裡不重複。

要強調的是08年的狀況是複雜的金融契約安排與實體經濟中，美國聯邦政府對房地產的福利政策扭曲不動產契約與貸款安排所引發，佐以Obama政府錯誤的凱因斯學派救市政策延長了痛苦期。這我當年都解釋過也批評過。

此次崩盤更多的只是貨幣幻覺（money illusion）的修正。這是說，我認為如果新型冠狀病毒疫情如未對實體經濟生產力或整體契約結構安排傷筋動骨，則此次恐慌性崩盤將來得快去得也快。

本來我認為的「更糟的狀況」可能被此次股市價格下修而推遲。

如果因疫情而降低多數人為國際貿易障礙，那會是最好的狀況。

7. 網友提問的好問題：「川普的減免所得稅政策是否也會因為期間過短而無效？」

我的回答：「美國的債務狀況（光2019年政府利息支出就5千多億美元），即便給出「長期所得稅減除政策」，人們也會懷疑是否引發通膨與國債價格崩盤。美國的侷限複雜難解。」

補充一句：美國的確有誘因引發世界各地戰爭動亂的方式維持美元強勢。目前的美國禁不起弱勢美元帶來的國債價格崩盤。

8. 跟著我2018年建議，逐漸增多現金比例的讀者，現在看股市崩盤應該心情大不同。

請把握此次財富重分配的機會。審時度勢。

9. 因「需求曲線移動造成石油價格下挫」與「因供應者競爭造成石油價格下挫」的經濟效果不一樣，投資者要有本事分明。

10. ETF會是大問題，這我在2017年10月的文章已經提到：

「1. There can be high settlement or bankruptcy risks for small or over-diversified ETFs in the bear markets. Although the investors can get back their shares of the real assets, it could be worthless after all. And such fear could induce investors and the ETF managers, who by doing so is breaking the contracts, to dump their holdings for money.

2. There can be even higher risks for leverage, inverse, or complex-designed derivative ETFs in a down turn. And I guess the bankruptcy administrators assigned by the courts would probably choose to sell the stocks or bonds and to cancel or abolish the complex derivative financial contracts for cash as soon as possible, which could cause the vicious circle as I mentioned in the article.

At present the ETFs go too far from the original purpose. For me, many of them are more like derivative goods rather than pure investing vehicles. It's kind of new fashion for people of means. But we have no idea what would really happen when the tide is out. We can wait and see.」

（https://tinyurl.com/tmzff2p）

某些為了避險而買入黃金ETF的，請注意第2點。

更深入的觀點在談貨幣的長文中再詳述。

全文連結：
https://tinyurl.com/whbbbpj

【利率倒掛與repo rate】

（見圖）

美國時間2020/03/04 Fed宣布緊急調降primary credit rate 50個基點至1.75％，同期USA Overnight Repo Rate為1.65%。二者均為極短期利率。

但同時，2年期美國國債殖利率當日從下跌至0.672%。

10年期從1.014％下跌至0.992%。

30年期國債從1.712%下跌至1.663%。

值得注意的30年期國債利率差一點就要低過 Repo rate；10年期國債則是已經低於Repo rate。Overnight repo rate 市場參與者以國債換取短期現金的超短期借款利率（往往只有一夜），反映的是非常短期的金融機構現金/流動性需求。

Repo是「Repurchase agreements」的簡稱，運作機制國際清算銀行（Bank for International Settlements）有簡單明瞭的解釋如下：

「A repo transaction is a short-term (usually overnight) collateralised loan, in which the borrower (of cash) sells a security (typically government bonds as collateral) to the lender, with a commitment to buy it back later at the same price plus interest. Repo markets redistribute liquidity between financial institutions: not only banks (as is the case with the federal funds market), but also insurance companies, asset managers, money market funds and other institutional investors. In so doing, they help other financial markets to function smoothly. Thus, any sustained disruption in this market, with daily turnover in the US market of about $1 trillion, could quickly ripple through the financial system. The freezing-up of repo markets in late 2008 was one of the most damaging aspects of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).」

2019年9月17日 repo rate一度跳到10%；12月5日又跳到4%。兩次震撼市場，擔憂重演2008年金融風暴的前哨戰，也都引起美國Fed快速注入幾百上千億美元到repo市場。這點從Fed的資產負債表從9月到12月短短三個月時間增長2千億美元即可發現，Fed從Powell上台聲稱的要縮表，但為了應付repo rate的彈升，Fed實質行為已經近乎重啟量化寬鬆（QE）。（見圖）

目前對去年第四季兩次的repo rate上升真正成因仍眾說紛紜，胡說八道居多，值得注意的是兩家機構均指出非銀行的市場參與者吸乾了流動現金，一是國際清算銀行：

「避險基金在repo市場的現金需求操作吸乾了流通現金（Hedge funds exacerbated the recent turmoil in the repo market with their thirst for borrowing cash to juice up returns on their trades）...」

二是日本三井住友銀行的分析報告指出抵押型住房信託（mortgage REITs）以repo操作方式大量借走市場現金：「...
These REITs operated at leverages of around 9x through 2012 but incurred damage to capital after an interest rate jump from the "Bernanke shock" caused a fall in asset holdings in 2013. Providers of repo funding became cautious about extending credit to these REITs, which subsequently operated at a leverage of around 7x for some time.
From 2H 2018, however, these REITs rapidly hiked leverage (Figure 17), and we think they and other types of leveraged funds absorbed a large amount of dollar funding in money markets, reflecting surging repo rates on 17 Sep 2019.
～SMBC NIKKO Security Inc., "Global Finance Spotlight."
05-Feb-2020 」

這邊我要特別指出mortgage REITs並非傳統REITs，這種信託本身並不持有房地產等土地建築所有權，而是持有與之相關的房地產抵押權然後透過金融市場操作獲利，通常會佐以相當槓桿來放大獲利。風險也隨之放大就毋須贅言。這邊要說的是，先天條件下有這種REITs跳進來貨幣市場其實是情理之中。

無論是避險基金或REITs，均被指稱是透過買進實體債券並同時賣出遠期利率合約（Forward rate agreements, FRA）的套利方式影響了repo rate。這些基金信託之所以要以短期現金投資長期債券套利的背後原因，說穿了就是實體經濟成長力道依舊不足，資金必須在虛擬金融市場中追逐微利。

因此我認為現在的長期短期利率倒掛現象，反映的不是「通膨預期減少」，而是「恐慌預期大到他種實體經濟投資項目的風險貼水不足以在市場成交」。故，經濟學實證上我們會看到實體經濟相關的物品、資產通膨率不大，但在虛擬金融市場的商品卻會出現嚴重通膨的幻覺現象。

是的，坊間常見的「美國通膨不嚴重」的論點是論者根本不懂通貨膨漲的經濟學邏輯，所以在胡扯。

美國經濟到底出了什麼問題？之後的金融市場會怎麼走？投資上該怎麼應對？傳統的資產配置理論弱點何在？

最近數月，自認為解通了這些現象背後完整經濟學邏輯。享受了解謎的樂趣，正在與文字痛苦奮戰，慢慢寫入上回預告的長篇文章之中。同感張五常教授曾說過的痛苦：當解通了經濟問題後，實在很懶得下筆寫出來。且戰且走慢慢磨吧～

本文的目的僅僅是提醒大家注意利率倒掛、Repo rate曾飆升且背後原因與2008年不同，值得注意深思與小心應付。

補充：漏了一點沒寫，Fed之所以汲汲營營不要命地快速對repo market注入現金幾百上千億美元的一個重要理由，我認為關鍵在於這些non-banking institutions的現金需求如果不能從repo market滿足，則將被迫賣出原本可以拿來repo 抵押的美國國債，很可能在短期內快速推升國債利率，引發美國政府財務危機。

要知道美國政府債務2019年光利息支出就高達$574.587 Billions USD！

文章連結：
https://tinyurl.com/qsqwp2j